Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
France is cracking under its own weight. Debt has surged past €3.35 trillion, more than 114 percent of GDP. The government’s answer is €5 billion in emergency cuts scraped from unspent funds and health insurance. “France faces €5bn in fresh cuts as debt balloons to record high” RFI The cuts are theater. The deficit is …
Yup. Basically pic.twitter.com/mKedOV6P44 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 31, 2025 The Federal Reserve is facing pressure on two fronts as inflation picks up and the labor market shows signs of slipping. Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid to explain why this puts the central bank in a difficult policy spot heading into …
Outlook for rate cuts could be in jeopardy if next week’s payrolls are stronger than expected. PCE and PCE Core are both still significantly above the Fed's alleged 2% "target" which is too high as it is — inflation driven price increases are an enormous burden on US households. Cutting rates here runs a huge …
How the HELL is Trump demanding rate cuts not a direct conflict of interest? -Trump empire tied to real estate -Entire fam heavily into crypto -Extended fam run PE/VC/investment firms -DTJ buys ~$100m worth of bonds This is absolutely absurd the more I think about it How the HELL is Trump demanding rate cuts not …
Markets cheered, but the message was hawkish. Powell didn’t promise cuts. He didn’t hint at September. He made the Fed’s caution sound like reassurance. That’s not dovish. That’s tight policy, carefully cloaked. “Risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment are to the downside — a challenging situation,” Powell said. Stocks …
Trump is not playing coy. On Wednesday he blasted Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook with a blunt demand: “Resign, now!!!” The trigger? A Bloomberg report of a possible mortgage fraud probe, amplified by his allies. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-fed-governor-cook-131136021.html BREAKING: The US Department of Justice says it has received a criminal investigation referral related to Fed Governor Cook …
🇺🇸 US Challenger job cuts 806,383 YTD. Highest since COVID and the Global Financial Crisis! Chart: @AugurInfinity pic.twitter.com/A8ufO4gP4W — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) August 16, 2025 “Through the end of July, U.S.-based employers have announced more than 800,000 job eliminations in 2025. That’s the highest number of jobs lost through the same period since 2020, when …
Prediction: Q2 was the best GDP print we see this year. We spent that quarter front loading inventory ahead of the tariffs. We will see what the tariffed economy really looks like in the second half of the year. Expecting a slowdown. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 13, 2025 what if the Fed cuts rates …
UPS just finished the full Covid rollercoaster. From pandemic lows to stimulus highs and then right back down. The stock has plunged 52% from its 2022 peak. It now trades at all-time lows compared to FedEx. The dividend is nearly 8 percent. That is not a bargain. It is a flashing red warning. UPS cut …
“Payroll employment growth slowed sharply to only 35,000 jobs per month over the three months ending in July. This is well below the moderate pace seen earlier in the year, likely due to a significant softening in labor demand.” https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/08/09/federal-reserve-rate-bowman/1681754774717/ The Fed’s dual mandate is breaking down. Inflation’s near target. Jobs are slipping. Tariffs are …
The Fed is about to cut rates while everything else hits all-time highs. Stocks, homes, rents, bitcoin, gold, household wealth — all at records. Unemployment sits at 4.2%. Inflation stays high. J.P. Morgan expects four rate cuts to bring the policy rate to 3.5%. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-08-08/j-p-morgan-sees-fed-cutting-rates-at-each-of-its-next-four-meetings But Americans are struggling. Fast food sales dropped hard last …
by Michael Have the official employment numbers finally achieved peak fakeness? We just got another perfect example of why so many of us have completely lost faith in the fake figures that government bureaucrats have been feeding us. For months we were told that employment was booming, but now we are being told that just the opposite is …
Pelosi lost it when the insider trading question landed. “Why do you have to read that?!” Her voice sharp, abrupt. “That’s not what I agreed to come to talk about.” https://www.foxnews.com/media/nancy-pelosi-shuts-down-question-insider-trading-accusations-live-event Watch Pelosi SQUIRM when asked about potential insider trading investigation: “Why do you have to read that?! That's not what I agreed to come …
Housing is more broken than most admit. Cutting rates won’t fix it. Prices remain too high and wages too low to afford a home. Inventory shortages in key regions make matters worse. First-time buyers are pushing 40 years old on average. That shows how the market locks out younger generations. Albert Edwards, known for predicting …
Jahana Hayes lashed out at Trump over proposed cuts to the Employee Benefits Security Administration. The EBSA oversees retirement plans and health benefits for over 150 million Americans. Hayes called the plan “reckless” and said it would “gut the very agency that protects workers’ savings.” But the agency’s budget has doubled in 10 years, while …
New Medicaid work rules are set to drop 30,000 Central New Yorkers from coverage That’s not a policy tweak That’s a system shock Syracuse’s three hospitals are bracing for 14,500 newly uninsured patients Not over a decade Over two years That’s one in five of their Medicaid load evaporating These hospitals don’t get to turn …
Is Donald Trump going to fire Jerome Powell? And what will the impact be on the housing market? It seems likely that the Fed will cut interest rates over the next year, which could re-stimulate the housing market. And potentially push home prices up. But will that actually happen? Home prices are dropping in many …
In 2008 and again in 2020, similar steep drops in credit were quickly followed by aggressive Fed rate cuts and liquidity injections. This time, we’re seeing the same kind of credit contraction, but the Fed is still holding rates high, and there’s no sign of emergency fiscal support coming either. That’s what makes the current …
Today: Same as when the 90 Day Tariff Pause “Leak” came out Release Headline saying Powell is out Test the Market Reaction Walk it back immediately Everything they do is driven by the Market. — Manz🌪 (@ManzTrades) July 17, 2025 Trump won't fire Powell: if economy goes into freefall, he has a scapegoat until May …
What’s happening now fits squarely within my thesis that Powell is using monetary policy not just to manage inflation, but as a geopolitical weapon of delay, designed to trap adversaries and force the world to bend to U.S. dollar hegemony. The recent stalling of a September rate cut isn’t just about economic data; it’s about …
Republicans finally got their “big, beautiful bill” across the finish line. Now they’re turning to their next urgent tasks: codifying billions in spending cuts and avoiding a government shutdown. The Senate plans to vote no earlier than next week on President Donald Trump’s request for lawmakers to scrap $9.4 billion in previously approved funding for …
President Trump’s flagship legislation is now hanging by a thread. The “Big Beautiful Bill” cleared the Senate on July 1 after a 26-hour vote marathon, but it did so with a tie-breaking vote from Vice President JD Vance. That alone signals trouble. The bill now returns to the House, where the revised version is triggering …
Speaker Mike Johnson is also privately telling GOP fiscal hawks that he’s pushing Senate Majority Leader John Thune to add back in hundreds of billions of dollars in spending cuts the Senate dropped, according to two people with direct knowledge of the conversations. But fiscal hawks have been skeptical the Senate will comply. https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/29/congress/house-gop-leaders-watch-senate-anxiously-as-they-work-to-secure-votes-00432288 Republican …
The $6.7 billion Legislative Branch bill is set for a full-committee markup Thursday. House appropriators released their committee report Wednesday for the Legislative Branch funding bill, which includes detailed guidance on how they’d like Capitol Hill offices and agencies to spend fiscal 2026 funding. Here’s a sampling of what’s on their minds ahead of …
lmfao pic.twitter.com/6anSLWhWlF — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) June 19, 2025 According to the national Association of home builders NAHB home builders are slashing prices on new homes at the highest rate since they have been keeping track. At the same time, the home builder confidence index levels continue to sink to new lows. about 33% below …
Governor Ron DeSantis is calling out Congress for failing to implement spending cuts identified by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The initiative was designed to slash wasteful spending, but lawmakers have yet to act. 🇺🇸 GOV. RON DESANTIS: NOT ONE CENT IN DOGE CUTS, CONGRESS FAILED "A trillion-dollar deficit is a tax on …
What happens when healthcare costs rise… but your safety net shrinks? Millions of retirees could face tough choices if Medicaid cuts move forward. Here’s what you need to know – and how to protect yourself… By Peter Reagan There’s an old saying that the only certain things in life are death and taxes, and while …
Does the debt get rolled over? How are CRE companies going to refinance their debts? What about corporate debt financed at the COVID lows near zero % that needs to be refinanced at 6%+? PE did it too How are companies going to be able to afford this? — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 14, 2025 …
They say inflation is cooling. The market claps. Yields dip. And just as quickly, they climb right back up. Over and over again. It is not confusion. It is the new reality. And many still do not get it. Soft inflation used to mean celebration. It meant the Fed could cut, the economy was easing …
