Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Martin Armstrong QUESTION: Marty, you have been silent on the rumors that the Fed is bailing out JP Morgan who they claim was short silver. If there is anyone who has been behind the curtain and confronted the banks, that is you. Would you please comment on this topic. EL ANSWER: JP Morgan is on …
Agree – that's why I've went 60% of my portfolio into $TLThttps://t.co/dj1X82hKpA — Common Sense Investor (CSI) (@commonsenseplay) January 3, 2026 Last time when the U.S captured another South American leader $SPX had more than 10% correction pic.twitter.com/2sFSm9ZS9c — SwingTrader (@SwingTraderQ) January 4, 2026 I hope China doesn’t seize on U.S. aggression toward Venezuela as …
People keep calling bonds “safe,” but that’s a straight-up lie. Long bonds in 2021 looked boring and secure, but inflation turned them into a nightmare. “Bonds are a safe-haven asset” is one of the biggest lies in financial markets. Bond performance is heavily dependent on the inflationary environment. – Disinflation -> bonds up– Inflation -> …
This is the part nobody wants to say out loud. The money wasn’t mismanaged, it was routed exactly where they wanted it to go. Homeless people were just the excuse, the real product was a fat paycheck and a clean paper trail. There is fraud everywhere now, and nobody ever seems to pay for it. …
The world is drowning in debt and nobody is sounding the alarm. Over $300 trillion owed globally, more than three times what the planet produces in a year. The U.S. alone carries $38 trillion, Europe’s biggest economies are maxed out, and developing nations are borrowing faster than they have in fifty years. Rates go up …
by Martin Armstrong Christine Lagarde is now warning that Europe faces an “existential crisis” unless urgent reforms are enacted. What she is really admitting is that Europe has reached the end of the centralized model. These are 28 independent nations that were never intended to operate as a single homogeneous culture or economy. Europe’s problem …
“This is 2007, 2008 magnified multiple times over,” warns Mitch Vexler, a commercial real estate developer who has gone forensic on America’s crumbling financial foundations. In today’s interview, Vexler dismantles the narrative of stability. He details a $23 trillion property overvaluation scheme, a $2 trillion commercial real estate cliff, and trillions in impaired bank loans—all …
The wannabe real estate moguls going bust Mom-and-pop landlords built real estate empires using under-the-radar DSCR loans. Now it’s coming back to bite them. Applying for a home loan is a pain. You have to produce a heap of documents — bank statements, tax returns, employment records, tallies of investment accounts — to prove the …
Forget 2007. The US consumer today is facing a worse crisis. It's not Systemic Leverage; it's Household Arithmetic. My new memo breaks down the structural squeeze: why the 2026 economy faces a consumer solvency crisis, not a liquidity crisis. — Craig Shapiro (@ces921) December 3, 2025 This Black Friday, shoppers paid 7% more for electronics, …
Over the past 5 days banks have borrowed more than $80 billion from the Fed’s emergency overnight lending facility. The plumbing of the financial system is clogged, liquidity is evaporating and what’s worse, the Fed has no answers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SoqGsh8mS3o The world’s most successful investors speaking directly to you. Capital Voices captures the unfiltered insights, strategies, …
Russia's quiet HIV epidemic continues to swell, now with 1 out of every 25 men aged 15-50 infected. Authorities now suspect the rate is much worse considering the lack of tests. pic.twitter.com/q70MX9H8NK — SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre (@StratcomCentre) December 1, 2025 The number of people with HIV infection continues to grow in Russia: over the …
The irrational policies of the German elite have been harming not only Germany itself but also all of Europe for years. And yet, there's no sign of a clear sobering up. This is fertile ground for awakening various demons in society and feeding externally funded schemers. pic.twitter.com/jmz8jdZehd — Will Not Live Twice (@pablobojar) December 2, …
UN REPORT: BIRTH RATES AREN’T FALLING BECAUSE PEOPLE DON’T WANT KIDS Turns out it’s not a “desire” problem. It’s an “afford it” problem. A massive UN survey of 14,000 people across 14 countries found that two in five adults over 50 didn’t have as many children as they wanted. The biggest barriers? Housing costs, childcare …
JUST IN 🚨: Nasdaq $QQQ posts first red month since March 📉 It was a hell of a run 🫡 pic.twitter.com/SDBAZ4AMoN — Barchart (@Barchart) November 28, 2025 **NVIDIA** A concerning day for Nvidia: trading red amid a broad-based rally in equities, commodities, and precious metals. The broadening pattern is like a black hole…nothing escapes once …
The collapsing collateral pyramid: When MBS replaces Treasuries in repo, the system is running out of AAA ammunition. This is exactly how the shadow collateral system breaks: •Treasuries = pristine •MBS = haircut-heavy, riskier •Agencies = dead middle •Everything below = nuclear waste If the Fed is now vacuuming up MBS to keep funding markets …
In Houston, Texas, massive office buildings that once buzzed with oil executives, engineers and energy traders now sit empty, with abandoned desks, computer screens and haunting silence. The oil industry runs so deep in the heart of Texas that the series Landman, about roughnecks trying to get rich quick in the oil business, is a …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Trump and NYC mayor Zohran Mamdani will fail. Here’s why. Talk Is Cheap Greg Ip has an interesting article on the Wall Street Journal. He says Everyone Is Talking About the ‘Affordability Crisis.’ It Can’t Be Solved. I agree with much of what Ip says, but he misses the two …
$12 TRILLION CRISIS | Leveraged Loan Defaults EXPLODE 0:00 – Intro 01:19 – Sourced Data 1:50 – #1 Private Credit New Sub-Prime 3:06 – #2 Large Banks Exposed 5:30 – GFC Made Things Worse 9:30 – Bancorp Bad Debt 11:49 – #3 Private Credit Defaults Hidden 14:45 – Intentionally Unregulated 17:39 – #4 $12.4 Trillion …
The Japanese carry trade has gone into reverse so it’s inevitable. Japan is in denial on debt. It's 10-year gov't bond yield is only 1.8% (blue), which looks ok, but that same yield 10-years forward is 4.0% (orange) and 20-years forward is 4.4% (red). The only certainty for Japan is that it'll have either a …
Memory chip shortage accelerating as AI demand consumes supply, threatening price hikes. Samsung quietly hiked memory chip prices up to 60% in November amid supply constraints Consumer electronics and automotive industries face production bottlenecks as chipmakers prioritize lucrative AI demand Price increases likely to hit smartphones, laptops, and vehicles as 2026 AI buildout intensifies supply …
America’s banking system is entering a dangerous new phase — and the warning signs can no longer be ignored. In today’s video, “The American Banking Crisis Just Got Worse (Defaults Are Rising),” we break down the shocking financial data that major media outlets continue to downplay. Credit card delinquencies, auto-loan defaults, commercial real-estate collapses, and …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=razKa7KEK_Q Worldrenowned realist scholar Professor John Mearsheimer explains why Japan’s demographic collapse, geopolitical entrapment between the US and China, exploding debt,
Every company would be affected if the AI bubble were to burst, the head of Google’s parent firm Alphabet has told the BBC. Speaking exclusively to BBC News, Sundar Pichai said while the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) investment had been an “extraordinary moment”, there was some “irrationality” in the current AI boom. In comments …
If you dive a little deeper, you can find the underlying threat to our economy. Head of IMF says risks in private credit market keep her awake at night Default warnings start to pile up in the private credit market Those defaults hurt banks See more in video at link: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbusiness/banks-are-hiding-the-real-economic-crisis-and-no-one-s-paying-attention/vi-AA1Qt4GD h/t b4its2l8
Everything here points to stress building faster than anyone in charge wants to admit. When this many cracks show up at the same time, something bigger is already pushing underneath the surface. Odds of a U.S. recession in next year almost 40%https://t.co/b3edTK8whk — NewsWire (@NewsWire_US) November 16, 2025 There’s never just one cockroach 🪳 https://t.co/yVDebFcIo7 …
They turned mortgages into time bombs in 2008 and now they are doing the same trick with AI, just with bigger numbers and darker corners. When the funding chain snaps this time, it will not just be a few banks choking, it will be the whole credit system gasping at once. Most AI companies are …
“Trump’s vague remarks aboard Air Force One were delivered as he traveled for the weekend to his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, and included no additional new details. The comments came as U.S. forces in the region awaited possible attack orders and after days of high-level discussions about whether — and how — to strike in …
The Fed just triggered a liquidity crisis. And I can prove it with three charts. But this isn’t just about repo markets or bank reserves. This is the moment the Fed loses control – and they know it. By the end of this video, you’ll understand exactly why money printing just became inevitable, why stopping …
by Michael We are less than two weeks into the month of November, and the mainstream media is telling us that millions of Americans are “starving”. If our society is this vulnerable to a temporary disruption in food stamp benefits, what is it going to be like when global events really start hitting the fan and there …
Federal education officials painted a grim picture of student achievement Tuesday, releasing test scores that in some grades have fallen to their lowest level in decades. Connecticut’s students outperformed the nation in a standard measure comparing academic achievement across the United States known as the “Nation’s Report Card,” but education union officials said there is …