Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Martin Armstrong COMMENT: I watched a pretend analyst who claimed the 1987 Crash was nothing. It is amazing how these people claim to be analysts yet do not understand the first thing about what took place behind the chart. I was there at your WEC in Princeton the weekend of the crash. I don’t …
This is how close we are to a market crash: pic.twitter.com/eP8PFXI0AQ — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) October 17, 2023 Walmart CEO Warns Americans Will Freak Out This Winter As Prices Continue to Soar; Goldman Warns of a Consumer Crisis Bulls, artificial intelligence got you into this mess, but it can't get you out. pic.twitter.com/rnMmt8so61 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) …
In the last 24 hours: – Mortgage rates hit +8.09%– Credit card interest rate hits record high– Car loan interest rate hits highest since 2001– Oil prices jump highest in 6 months– China planning +$137 billion stimulus– War continues on in Israel But guess what? Stocks are… — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) October 10, 2023 …
It seems like the global economy is in a tough spot. There are a lot of problems, like conflicts and debts, and it’s affecting how things are going. People aren’t feeling too confident about it, especially in developed countries where things might even get worse. Well, folks, it’s no secret that our debt situation is …
From Peter Reagan at Birch Gold Group Have you ever watched a video of someone who takes a perfectly normal rose, flash-freezes it in liquid nitrogen and then hits it with a hammer? Here’s what happens: Back in 2007, the housing market froze up. The combination of a speculative bubble in home prices nationwide collided with …
This fund manager is holding 60% cash — and expecting a stock-market crash Ruffer’s main claim to fame is to have successfully sidestepped the 2000-2003 and 2007-2009 market collapses Yikes. There’s bearish, there’s really bearish, and then there’s Ruffer & Co. I don’t want to spook everyone managing their own retirement portfolio. But the London-based …
The public focuses on the stock market but this bond market is much more important to the economy. There are major consequences for all the banks who hold Treasury Bonds. The level of unrealized losses has probably gone through the roof and possibly hundreds of banks are technically insolvent if they had to mark their …
TRIGGER FOR NEXT FINANCIAL IMPLOSION “U.S. Banks are facing some $600 billion of unrealized losses, roughly 25% of total banking capital, near the highest levels in history.” – Automatic Earth The U.S. banking system and likely, the global banking system, is essentially bankrupt. They just won’t admit it and central bankers won’t let them admit it. …
via geofinancialnews: Declining credit quality metrics in Commercial real estate lending pushed several banks to reduce their exposures to the sector by offloading loans related to the asset class, particularly office loans, in the second quarter. US banks’ commercial real estate loan portfolios showed signs of increasing stress During the second quarter, the net charge-off …
by Historical-Egg-5570 Uh oh 🙈 https://t.co/TDdTFR5SHQ pic.twitter.com/wVLS0bSH24 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 27, 2023 Yields on 10-year Treasuries closed at new post-2007 highs today, driven by real yields, which closed out at new post-2009 highs. Oil closed at the highest levels in more than a year and the euro is poised to break through 105 vs …
Sounds right until it isn't! Problem is that the faster bonds sell off the greater collateral hit and impairment to Global #liquidity https://t.co/6GW0EYopoj — CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes (@crossbordercap) September 26, 2023 #recession … #StockMarket Bubble edition#Leverage 📉 #MarginCall 📈 https://t.co/nig1oqQvQ8 pic.twitter.com/FmkeTm30lS — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) September 26, 2023 #recession … Global $USD #Liquidity Squeeze edition$DXY …
via JOHN RUBINO: Spiking interest rates are normally a death knell for homebuilders, for obvious reasons. Higher mortgage rates raise monthly payments, which crash house prices, which make existing houses cheaper than newly built ones, which causes demand for new houses to shrink, which causes homebuilders to lay off their workers and sell their spec …
A recession will hit by the spring, and the S&P 500 will crash by 25% or more, David Rosenberg has said. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 20, 2023 The Fed was 12 months late to start hiking and now they've over tightened. Markets won't wait for the Fed to cut before selling off because there is …
https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/1704286099814658123
CONFIDENCE: you didn't hear this from Old Wall Media during Friday's stock market decline But it still happened. US Consumer Confidence falling (again) as Gas Prices go up and stocks keep making lower-highs pic.twitter.com/kxw49wOK6A — Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) September 16, 2023 After Tech stocks crashed in August, the Nasdaq VIX made a new low this …
by confoundedinterest17 Shape of things in the US economy. But a better tune to descible what is happening is over, under, sideways down. For example, look at this chart of loans and leases at commercial banks, since last year (YoY). The growth rate is plunging rapidly. Of course, M2 Money growth has already crashed. Loan delinquenices? …
S&P Global Ratings revealed that corporate defaults reached a total of 16 in August. Read more: https://t.co/9aNUPiiD0A — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 13, 2023 Providing a visual pic.twitter.com/jTSPphi6pz — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 13, 2023 The sudden shifts in consumer behavior should not come as a surprise. We went from record levels of stimulus to the …
by IAmTheComedianII Next Wednesday’s CPI report is going to be devastating to the markets. As of right now the Cleveland Nowcast has August’s m/m CPI at +.8%, and the Nowcast is generally only off by about a tenth of a percent. Markets are going to freak the fuck out: Markets will reprice for higher rates Financial …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhcPhwoOXWs Investors should fasten their belts for a volatile fall as September begins. This month is historically known as the cruelest for stocks, with data going all the way back to 1928 showing that Wall Street reports significant losses and enters into “correction mode” as soon as the autumn kicks off. The Nasdaq and the …
by InternationalTop2405 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1698305955610390944
‘Two weeks ahead of last year’s schedule based upon the oscillator and the 50 dma. At the lows, the oscillator was one year oversold, now it’s back to overbought. Worst case, global crash starts this week but gets totally out of control on Labor Day.’ Two weeks ahead of last year's schedule based upon the …
by Dismal-Jellyfish Wut mean?: On the flipside, this means 66.1% of retail investors and 56.03% of institutional investors believe the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash in the U. S., like that of October 28, 1929 or October 19, 1987, in the next six months is above 10%.
by Logical_Ninja Signs the US consumer is struggling more: 1) Outstanding credit card debt is at a record high of $1.03 trillion 2) The avg APR on that debt is at a record high of 21% 3) Credit card delinquencies hit a record high of 7.2% at small banks in Q1 The lag effect is …
by K8B_24 There is lots of unrest globally. USD getting dumped by BRICS, China looking at Taiwan, Russia’s war with Ukraine still on. Germany now in a recession along with other European countries. The US not admitting they are already in a recession. Edit: looks like evergrande just filed for bankruptcy protection as well. The …
by fickdichdock Reasoning in some easy to digest bullet points: Hedge funds piled into regional banks in the last crash but they will take profits on the first sign of trouble. Fitch “in ur an us” rating agency down graded the US recently. Rumors of more extensive bank downgrades. Biggest -% day for many regional …
Explainer-How much worse can China’s economic slowdown get? HONG KONG (Reuters) – China’s economic activity data for July, including retail sales, industrial output and investment failed to match expectations, fuelling concern over a deeper, longer-lasting slowdown in growth. THE DEMISE OF CHINA’S GROWTH HAS BEEN MISTAKENLY FORECAST BEFORE. IS THIS TIME DIFFERENT? Activity data has …
