Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael We knew that this wasn’t over. The ill-fated “Memorandum of Understanding” may have delayed the inevitable, but now the ceasefire is dead and fighting is raging throughout the Middle East all over again. Sadly, we shall soon see just how far both sides are willing to escalate matters. In my opinion, we are …
The numbers keep getting bigger. President Trump’s 2025 financial disclosures and related business deals show the Trump family’s crypto ventures generated an estimated $1.2 billion to $2.3 billion in value through meme coins, token sales, stablecoin ventures, and other digital asset businesses. BREAKING: President Trump earned over $1.4 billion in 2025 from crypto and memecoin-related …
The situation in the Middle East is getting very bad for world food supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is a key place for ships, and now that the fighting is happening, many ships cannot get through. Because of this, about 30% of the world’s fertilizer trade is blocked. Fertilizer is how farmers grow enough food …
According to reporting from the Los Angeles Times, the military clashed along this strategic waterway Tuesday as Israeli forces pushed north, effectively shredding the U.S.-brokered ceasefire. Benjamin Netanyahu authorized more intense strikes, hitting over 100 Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley overnight. One single strike in Mashghara killed 12 people, including multiple …
Source: Congressional Report on Operation Epic Fury The Iran conflict cost is a lie. The Pentagon finally admitted to $29 billion in spending. But that figure is a deliberate shell game. It excludes long-term base repairs. It ignores veteran care. It leaves out the massive economic ripples. Outside analysts peg the real damage at $50 …
Fox News’ Bret Baier confirms UAE forces are now conducting direct military strikes inside Iran… Special Report anchor Bret Baier reports the UAE has been “directly engaged” for several days… Operations allegedly include a precision strike on a key oil refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island… The shift marks a massive escalation from defensive posturing to …
The HSBC factory index climbed to 54.7 in April, but the celebration is muted, the Iran war has officially turned global production into a cost-push nightmare… Input costs are rising at the second-fastest rate in four years, the shipping blockade is forcing firms to choose between eating the bill or passing it to the consumer… …
"U.S. officials tell Axios they're concerned about getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal. In this scenario, the U.S. keeps its forces in the region for many more months, Hormuz would stay closed and the U.S. blockade would remain." — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) April 28, 2026 "Hello? Who's this?" "Iran." "What …
This started as U.S. vs Iran… now it’s slowly turning into a U.S. vs China situation, and that’s where things get risky. Follow the oil and it makes sense. China depends on Hormuz for ~40% of its oil and 30% of LNG, so it’s not sitting back. They’ve already sent warships from Djibouti, parked destroyers …
via notayesmanseconomics The war in the Middle East has been one which has brought benefits to some sectors of the US economy. The military industrial complex is one as they await orders to replace the munitions that have been used. Another in the news has been the energy sector. US crude exports are projected to …
BREAKING 🚨 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Israel’s IDF Chief Eyal Zamir says Lebanon is now the main battlefield. ⚡️ 💥 “We are at war, not in a ceasefire. This is our primary combat zone” 🇮🇷 🤯 He says a ceasefire holds with Iran, but fighting can resume any moment with force. pic.twitter.com/R94tNCFnic — FalconUpdatesHQ (@FalconUpdatesHQ) April 10, …
by confoundedinterest17 Trump’s threats of bombing Iran back to the stone age continues. But the impact on Treasury yields is interesting. As the US economy continues to grow, the US Treasury curve takes on the familiar upward slope. With rising long rates. Particularly when compared to the negative humped yield curve of a year ago. …
via Phoenix Capital Research War is inherently inflationary for the following reasons: Governments ramp up spending to fund the war effort: weapons, personnel, logistics, and reconstruction. The potential for supply side disruptions: in a globalized world, war can disrupt the production of natural resources as well as their shipping routes. Regarding #1, the Trump administration …
**BREAKING 🚨** — Immediate 25 day ceasefire to be imminently announced (Pakistan Accord). — all hostilities stopped, Strait of Hormuz reopened. — then after 25 days, direct talks to begin on long term solution. — deal could come as early as Monday night. — tic toc (@TicTocTick) April 6, 2026 SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL: TEHRAN WILL …
BREAKING : Iran 🇮🇷 is now officially exposing Trump how he is trapped by Netanyahu "Trump is getting controlled by Israel using Epstein Files as he became a Pawn of Netanyahu under pressure of Mossad" 🔥🤯 This is straight, frank and brutal 🥶 pic.twitter.com/j2XBpH77wg — Amock_ (@Amockx2022) March 29, 2026 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Joe Kent, just explained …
A former Pentagon adviser said Iran is entering negotiations with higher leverage than before the war began. The U.S. spent $12 billion, struck 9,000 targets, and deployed the 82nd Airborne. Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz and can threaten chaos across the entire region. That’s not the outcome the opening briefings described. Source: CNN …
The Swiss Government announced that it will not grant new licenses to export war materiel to the United States while the armed conflict with Iran continues. This is based on the Swiss federal law on war materiel, which strictly prohibits exports to countries involved in active international armed conflicts. According to the official statement, “the …
U.S. Gears Up for Ground Invasion of Iran: The U.S. is accelerating the deployment of approximately 8,000 additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East. In a show of rapid deployment, the USS Boxer Amphibious Ready Group is arriving ahead of schedule with roughly 4,000 Marines and sailors. They will link up with the USS …
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on RUSSIA'S WINS as a result of the US-Israel war on Iran: "[It's not] just the oil. [Russia's] got liquid natural gas… and fertilizer… [The US and Israel] have shored up the foundation of the Russian economy." pic.twitter.com/W2dqabq0Zj — Steve Hanke (@steve_hanke) March 16, 2026 Iowa farmer: This fertilizer shortage …
The Strait of hormuz isn’t just about oil. This is important to recognize. Liquefied Natural Gas – this would affect quite a few countries. Electricity prices would spike globally. Some countries would face a crisis within weeks. Petrochemicals and Industrial Chemicals – this affects sulfur, sulfuric acid, ammonia, methanol, ethylene – and these are used …
Iran: 1,255 killed, 12,000 injured. Lebanon: 394 killed, 1,000+ injured. Israel: 13 killed, nearly 2,000 injured. Kuwait: 6 killed, dozens injured. All Americans. UAE: 4 killed, 112 injured. Saudi Arabia: 2 killed, 12 injured. Bahrain: 1 killed, 40 injured. Jordan: 14 injured. Qatar: 16 injured. Oman: 1 killed, 5 injured. Iraq: 6 killed, dozens injured. …
Really hard to bearish seeing stats like this https://t.co/adTqOewbHC — Reformed Tr🅰️der (@Reformed_Trader) March 7, 2026 🚨 BREAKING! A LARGE tanker just SAFELY cruised through the Strait of Hormuz amid the raging conflict with Iran. Gas prices will come back down. pic.twitter.com/jdaNmgaXep — Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) March 8, 2026 Everyone is crying about next week… …
Over the past several hours fresh waves of airstrikes and missile attacks have erupted across multiple countries spreading the war far beyond its original battlefield. Israel has launched new strikes deep inside Iran including attacks on oil storage facilities around Tehran that triggered massive fires and thick smoke over the capital. At the same time …
By Peter Reagan The Iran conflict. At this point, even those rare individuals living in a closet without television or internet have heard about the fighting. Most people are focused on the military and political dimensions. That’s understandable. But there’s another part of the story that affects nearly every American household – and it has …
IRAN CONFLICT MAY DELAY FED RATE CUTS Janet Yellen says the Iran conflict is likely to slow U.S. growth and push inflation higher, making the Federal Reserve more cautious on cutting rates. Rising oil prices—especially if disruption in the Strait of Hormuz persists—could keep… — *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 2, 2026
SungHoon Lee, IQ 276 @sungleeiq Nobody is telling you how FUCKED the internet situation actually is right now. IRAN just got BOMBED. AGAIN. They are going to hit back. And the most devastating thing they can hit is NOT a military base. It is 5 FIBER OPTIC CABLES sitting on the ocean floor. Those cables …
by Michael Nobody can deny that there is chaos in the streets of America, and both sides just continue to escalate matters. Incidents of civil conflict are literally occurring on a nightly basis, and in some cities such as Portland violent leftists are allowed to do pretty much whatever they want for months on end. …
Denmark has frozen all military leave, called up its reserves, and banned civilian drones nationwide. France has sent anti-drone teams. Sweden has delivered radar systems. Germany has docked a warship off Copenhagen. These are not routine steps. They are coordinated military actions against a wave of drone incursions over Danish airspace, including flyovers of airports, …
“Realistically, we are talking about a figure of around 1,000 wounded troops per day,” said Germany’s Surgeon General Ralf Hoffmann. “The Ukrainians often cannot evacuate their wounded fast enough because drones are buzzing overhead everywhere. The nature of warfare has changed dramatically in Ukraine. Injuries now come less from gunfire and more from explosions and …
Troops in cities. Elections in question. Billionaires warning of autocracy. The system isn’t bending. It’s being hollowed out. “A federal judge has declared President Donald Trump’s use of military troops in Los Angeles illegal… warning that Trump appears intent on ‘creating a national police force with the President as its chief.’”Politico That is not critique. …