Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Summer vacations about to get brutally expensive as jet fuel and diesel go through the roof. Hochstein basically just said the energy party is over and the hangover starts now. "I've never seen anything like it before." Oil storage tanks in the United States will run empty "somewhere in the July 4 period," Carlyle's Jeff …
Mortgage rates moved even higher again last week, as the war with Iran continues to stoke fears of inflation. As a result, total mortgage application volume fell again, down 10.4% from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan …
US student loan delinquencies are exploding: The number student loan borrowers that are severely delinquent is up to a record 3.62 million. The number of federal loan recipients 271+ days past due is now 8 TIMES higher than the pre-2020 average. This comes as the grace period… pic.twitter.com/kCliDUSadP — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 3, …
It's starting to look like maybe an AI driven productivity boom. pic.twitter.com/UC6fxl3NcJ — infinite monkey (@RobertDobalina7) January 9, 2026 Inflation is falling off a cliff. It now sits at 1.9% The Federal Reserve must cut rates by another 100 basis points. pic.twitter.com/fitTVZs6lf — Anthony Pompliano 🌪 (@APompliano) January 9, 2026 JUST IN: The U.S. economy …
It’s obvious the economy is a mess right now, slowest job growth in 15 years, a weakening dollar, sky-high tariffs, a government shutdown, and everything else falling apart. Meanwhile, the top 10% are chilling, barely noticing any of this, watching their net worths hit new records as the market keeps climbing. We didn’t get the …
Dow Theory Crash Indicator: Every single major crash over the last 100 years had the exact same setup: DJIA hit a new high, but the transports failed to do the same (1929, 1937, 1966-1975, 1987, 2000, 2007, 2020). And when transports fail to confirm the DJIA high, the wheels come off the equity bus and …
The school year ended and ChatGPT usage fell right off a cliff. pic.twitter.com/2iU3aa4iA6 — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) August 7, 2025
U.S. economy flashes warning signs with crashing orders, falling home prices and health care costs outpacing rent. Capex expectations continued to deteriorate in July per @KansasCityFed Manufacturing Index pic.twitter.com/LlqnUOHx8t — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 25, 2025 Durable goods orders –9.3% in June, after –6.6% in April — the worst monthly drop since 2020. The …
During the GFC, we saw a noticeable crossover when part-time work increased and full-time work declined. Over the past year, we’re seeing a similar crossover slowly form. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/uez8lZaGWP — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) June 10, 2025 Full-time workers -623KPart-time workers +33K — zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 6, 2025 2/ The leading economic indicators (LEI) index …
Tesla’s Cybertruck inventory has skyrocketed to a new record high of more than 10,000 units. The vehicle program is in crisis. We reported at the beginning of April that Tesla ended the first quarter of 2025 with at least 2,400 Cybertrucks in new inventory available in the US. There’s no exact way to track Tesla’s …
By Matthew Piepenburg In this lengthy yet substantive/timely discussion with Alex Deluce of Gold Telegraph Conversations, VON GREYERZ partner, Matthew Piepenburg, leads viewers through the fog, confusion and volatility of recent headlines toward a simple lighthouse. In short, Piepenburg places tariff headlines, seismic geopolitical shifts, de-dollarization trends, extreme market volatility and recessionary reality into a simple lens: …
Layoffs are expected to start within the next month. Also, massive loss of state and local tax revenues derived from tourist spending. Foreign tourism has fallen off a cliff. This is a $100B domestic industry largely concentrated in NYC, southern Florida, southern California, and Las Vegas. Hotels, airlines, restaurants, and tour guides are already feeling …
NEW: Bill Maher says Democrats didn’t just flirt with woke—they married it, and now it’s dragging the whole party off a cliff. Maher just dropped a brutal reality check: if Democrats don’t cut ties with the woke cult, they’re finished. “You get a certain amount of cult followers for anything and then the true believers …
(Bloomberg) — Tesla Inc.’s sales plunged 45% last month across Europe, where rival carmakers saw a surge in electric-vehicle demand. The Elon Musk-led company registered only 9,945 cars in January, down from 18,161 a year ago, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. EV sales soared 37% for the overall industry, with carmakers posting big …
Is the stock market walking off a cliff and investors don’t see it coming? Macro investor Kevin Muir, author of the MacroTourist Newsletter, joins Maggie Lake to break down why we’ve entered a new economic era—one where tariffs, trade deficits, and fiscal tightening could reshape markets in ways most investors aren’t ready for.
by Mike Maharrey Every month, we report on the massive budget deficits. Most people yawn and move along. The reality is they don’t view overspending and debt as a big problem. After all, the debt has been growing for decades and nothing bad has happened. But the problem with kicking the can down the road is …
I can do this ALL DAY in CPG. The consumer is dead pic.twitter.com/5vRBTU6sKF — USA Divides by 32 (@sabregold19991) January 8, 2025 Consumer revolving credit in the US just fell off of a cliff. The last 6-month drop is even larger than the drop seen in 2008, 2nd largest behind 2020. What is happening here? …
Per the @FT: “US companies are defaulting on junk loans at the fastest rate in four years, as they struggle to refinance a wave of cheap borrowing that followed the Covid pandemic.” This is not about weak demand. Rather, it’s the consequence of excessive borrowing by companies,… pic.twitter.com/V9kOs5Y37e — Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) December 24, …
by Michael The number of job openings in the United States has been “falling off a cliff”, and that is a major red flag. The last four years have been an economic nightmare for most Americans, and that is one of the primary reasons why Donald Trump won the election. But as we approach 2025, things are …
Has anyone checked on @U2 Bono? 😆 pic.twitter.com/oEuWtrcBmQ — 🏴 𝗕𝗘𝗔𝗥 🇬🇧 (@RangersBear55) November 6, 2024 Anyone checked in on how this deranged fuck is holding up? pic.twitter.com/yRXmBDOBd8 — Major Gowen (@MajorGowen_) November 6, 2024 Two things that will be a must see today;1. Rob Reiner lighting himself up2. Bono driving his car off a …
View post on imgur.com https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence Consumers’ view on the economy tumbled in September, falling by the largest level in more than three years as fears grew about jobs and business conditions, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The board’s consumer confidence index slid to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, the biggest one-month decline since August …
WARNING: Labor market conditions index has been steadily declining This systematically happens prior to recessions pic.twitter.com/w3YYWHR566 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 26, 2024 US firms’ ‘low firing’ approach may turn to more layoffs, Fed’s Barkin tells BBG WASHINGTON, Aug 26 (Reuters) – The “low-hiring, low-firing” approach that U.S. businesses currently take to their employment decisions …
Meanwhile new car inventory looks like a rocket ship https://t.co/xCj5YuJXlS pic.twitter.com/yvUdx69WGl — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) July 10, 2024 People are not buying new cars: People don’t have money New Cars/trucks still so expensive (and increasing the last 5 years) High interest rates Harder getting a loan etc Dealers have 150 days supply Dealers full of …
Canadian banks are indeed bracing for a “mortgage renewal cliff.” As mortgage renewals approach for over three-quarters of homeowners, Canada’s Big Six banks are adding billions of dollars to their emergency funds. The spike in mortgage payments that many homeowners will face during renewal is known as the “mortgage cliff.” Mortgage rates are significantly higher …
Absolutely shocking data out of the Philippines presented in a committee meeting. Hundreds of thousands of excess deaths and a birth rate going off a cliff – a MILLION fewer babies born than would be expected Absolutely shocking data out of the Philippines presented in a committee meeting. Hundreds of thousands of excess deaths and …
BY DAVID HAGGITH News today really puts the Fed in a tough bind and strips away investor delusions about rate cuts. Photo by Jeremy Perkins on Unsplash Such a torrent of horrible economic news hit today, particularly for the Fed, that I cannot even begin to cover it all in a weekday editorial, so a good part of …
And above is just the public debt. No bueno pic.twitter.com/4ZMzHEeLi7 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 23, 2024
Market indicators flash warning: Discretionary and Staples teeter on the edge as S&P 500 hovers precariously near its 20-week moving average. Amidst cautionary whispers, even the options market hesitates, while a Reddit tale spins a tale of high-risk fortune. #SPX #SP500 $SPY #ES_F 📉 🥶https://t.co/Unj4i0DpAT — Invariant Perspective (@InvariantPersp1) April 21, 2024 New lows. The …
The job market is falling off a cliff.Most my friends that got laid off can’t apply for unemployment until severance runs out. Biden admin mandated 2 months WARN nationwide. There is a lag in the employment data no one (except DDB at QI) talks about!!!! Recession is here folks — Richard Nixon (@TheGoldWindow) March 27, …
Joe and Becky asked him how can you be so sure about no risk of high inflation after we’ve seen hotter CPI’s the last two months I would have asked the same question. This looser monetary policy is a big roll of the dice by the Fed this week — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) March 22, …