With CPI rising it makes no sense for the Fed to get looser with policy; Investors can see the cliff coming, it’s pretty obvious.

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A recession is likely to hit the US economy in 2024, a new economic model highlighted by the economist David Rosenberg suggests.

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The economic indicator, which Rosenberg calls the “full model,” suggests there’s an 85% chance of a recession striking within the next 12 months.

That’s the model’s highest reading since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.

The model is based on a working National Bureau of Economic Research paper and consists of financial conditions indexes, the debt-service ratio, foreign term spreads, and the level of the yield curve.


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