Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Current S&P 500 valuation is not leaving ‘any margin for error’ – JPMorgan By Investing.com The consensus among “almost all economists” and the market supporting a soft landing leaves “any margin for error,” according to JPMorgan’s strategists. “Crucially, unlike a year ago, when almost all economists and the market pricing had recession as a base …
The cycle was ending and the Fed was already easing in 2019 before the pandemic. However, the pandemic asset bubble guarantees this recession will be many times worse than it would have been.https://t.co/resrCdAIzT Interest payments have doubled since the pandemic lows. pic.twitter.com/3Y9PywZR8Q — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) December 3, 2023 This show personal interest payments adjusted for …
The looming threat of Evergrande’s tumultuous collapse raises significant apprehension among global investors amid China’s economic challenges. In a bid to avert imminent liquidation, the world’s most indebted property developer, China Evergrande Group, is urgently presenting a last-minute debt restructuring proposal before a crucial Hong Kong court hearing on Monday. The defaulted company faces mounting …
This probably comes down over the next few years. No guarantee, but rates are likely coming down somewhat in the next couple years. Bonds may do well over the next five years. h/t HighYieldLarry
by Naive-Historian-2110 https://www.history.com/news/1929-stock-market-crash-warning-signs “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Mark Twain never lived to see the Federal Reserve, but he probably would have been able to recognize it’s cyclical nature. The Federal Reserve has a long history of facilitating a “boom and bust economy,” and sometimes, it creates interesting new financial environments that can …
by j_stars The Japanese yen is poised to break out against other major currencies, as bond yields in Japan are set to surge. This could reduce the financing of US markets by Japanese investors, and put downward pressure on the dollar. Fed Repo Facility Sinks Below $1 Trillion as Bills Stand Out (Bloomberg) — The …
Back then, technology companies were the sole sector propping up the market from mid-1999 to March 2000. Today’s scenario bears a striking resemblance to those times. It’s remarkable how today’s lack of leadership in the stock market echoes the period preceding the tech bust. As shown in the chart below, technology companies were the only …
Crumbling buildings and broken dreams: China’s unfinished homes Tens of millions of homes lie vacant across China following the country’s credit-fuelled construction boom. Taichung, Taiwan – Around a tiled square on the outskirts of the Chinese city of Nanjing, a cluster of apartment buildings rise like concrete columns towards a grey sky. At first glance, the …
The 2008 financial crisis ushered in the era of central bank intervention. What began as emergency measures, meant to rescue the economy after the bursting of the housing bubble, has turned into a permanent policy. The Federal reserve slashed its interest rate to zero, and kept it there for seven straight years. In addition, it …
Canada likely sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time, per Phillip Colmar Read more: https://t.co/AFsqM8RLbe — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 27, 2023 https://twitter.com/JToyts/status/1716938306368532953 Additionally, there's growing concern about the looming burst of a long-overdue #housing bubble in Canada. High household debt, home price-to-rent ratios, and the interaction between these factors and a potential housing …
Fastest Declining US Housing Markets (1-Year Drop): 1. Austin, TX: -11.6%2. Boise, ID: -8.6%3. New Orleans, LA: -8.0%4. Lake Charles, LA: -8.0%5. Phoenix, AZ: -7.0%6. Las Vegas, NV: -7.0%7. Provo, UT: -6.7%8. Reno, NV: -5.7%9. Chico, CA: -5.7%10. San Jose, CA: -5.5%… — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 22, 2023 As mortgage rates hit 8% …
In August, China experienced its largest monthly capital outflow in nearly eight years. China had a capital outflow of $49 billion in August, the largest monthly outflow in almost 8 years 🚨 pic.twitter.com/h9dXDHxC8s — Barchart (@Barchart) October 22, 2023 https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1716166335049114018 China’s Country Garden risks default after ‘missing bond payment’ The crisis in China’s property sector …
It’s probably going to get worse for a while before it gets better. I don't think we are being told the truth about true economic data like inflation or jobs numbers 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/L6xrm2sBpp — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) October 20, 2023 Stock market valuations stand at one of the three great bubble extremes in U.S. …
by David Haggith Photo by Micah Williams on Unsplash Wolf Richter is calling it a “bond bloodbath,” which he says is happening because delusions about the Fed’s fight with inflation are finally giving way. Reality struck home in the latest retail report that showed high increases in retail sales that were in good part due to high increases in …
What happens when we can’t service the debt. James Grant is (finally) getting the last laugh.
In contrast to the national trend, metropolitan areas with a population exceeding one million that witnessed a decline in foreclosure starts in Q3 2023 included Salt Lake City, Utah (down 74 percent) and Chicago, Illinois (down 35 percent). Read more: https://t.co/vE4UkH0d3l — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 17, 2023 https://twitter.com/MGuthner/status/1714822349998997567 h/t Simian_Stacker
The Nasdaq’s return compared to US Treasuries is now at a record high, surpassing levels seen during previous bubbles and indicating a significant gap between equity and bond returns. So many unsustainable metrics out there right now. This also underscores the significant outperformance of the S&P 7 to the remainder of the index. Markets are …
LinkedIn cuts 668 jobs in second redundancy round as ‘tech wreck’ worsens Networking platform LinkedIn has just laid off nearly 700 people in a second redundancy round this year. Earlier on Tuesday, LinkedIn, which is owned by Microsoft, announced in a blog post that 668 staff across its engineering, talent and finance teams were getting …
If these problems in major economies collide, it could spell global financial disaster soon, and it feels like we need some urgent solutions, but we’re not getting them. On top of that, the recent Treasury bond auction didn’t go so well, which adds to worries about the U.S. debt piling up and how Wall Street …
DFW rents are now negative y/y, when I get my lease renewal and see the increase, I'ma tell them to f'uck off and move to one of the many apartments offering much lower rates. — goldenkazeburny (@goldenkazeburny) October 7, 2023
by DAVID HAGGITH Today’s headlines tell us that US banks are facing their highest write-offs since the worst part of the Covidcrash, and the shockwaves are spreading: The largest banks in the United States are currently grappling with the worst write-offs they have experienced in three years, according to a recent report by Bloomberg. This news …
In the last 24 hours: – Mortgage rates hit +8.09%– Credit card interest rate hits record high– Car loan interest rate hits highest since 2001– Oil prices jump highest in 6 months– China planning +$137 billion stimulus– War continues on in Israel But guess what? Stocks are… — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) October 10, 2023 …
The Bear Market never ended. The end of this bear market rally is rapidly approaching……. https://t.co/kf0JCvL7XA — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 5, 2023 G, we already there… Long-duration US TSY bonds have now lost more in % terms than stocks did during the GFC in 2008-2009 The drawdown in Vanguard Ext Duration Treasury ETF …
by j_stars Japanese bond yields yoinking higher. Japan’s Federal Debt is 265% of GDP. Won’t be too long.
The impact of spiking interest rates after more than 10 years of 0% is hitting. More here: Onset of the Economic Avalanche Becomes Clear Recession Warning: Employers Slash Staff at Record Pace Since 2009 The global business landscape is under strain, with the UK signaling a potential worldwide recession. A new survey reveals the …
Even China’s 1.4 billion population can’t fill all its vacant homes, former official says Unsold, completed: ~7.2 million homes, according to Reuters calculations, based on the average home size of 90 square metres. That does not count: the numerous residential projects that have already been sold but not yet completed due to cash-flow problems or …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B3h68qhdg6k Tennessee Housing Market on the Precipice Nashville and Knoxville Real Estate Warning The housing crash is continuing to unfold across the country, but certain states are falling faster than others, and the state of Tennessee has now taken the mantle as the largest housing bubble in the US housing market. Markets like Phoenix and …
The current economic landscape raises concerns about the potential for significant wealth destruction when Housing Bubble 2.0, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s policies, eventually implodes. Housing Bubble 2.0: Recent data indicates that the implosion of Housing Bubble 2.0 is gaining momentum, with U.S. housing starts falling by a substantial 11.3%. This decline underscores the vulnerability …
Investor housing purchases in Phoenix are falling FASTER than during the GFC pic.twitter.com/gNzd5VFrFQ — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) September 14, 2023 Down from $2 million to only $1 million, in a few months, here in Tampa lol pic.twitter.com/AJGhyzokom — Andrew Lokenauth | TheFinanceNewsletter.com (@FluentInFinance) September 14, 2023 California existing home sales have declined 47% from the …
2/8 The amount of income you need to qualify for a mortgage has more than doubled. Logically, most of these people are left with one choice: stay in their current apartment or house, whether they like it or not. pic.twitter.com/UWrz0IxvWJ — Jeff Weniger (@JeffWeniger) September 12, 2023 4/8 When people purchase these existing homes, maybe …