Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Borrowing from pensions to fund current spending creates future holes. Socialism in practice often needs bailouts and tricks to stay afloat. Taxpayers and retirees end up paying the bill later. Mamdani is borrowing from New Yorkers Pension funds and deferring the payments. pic.twitter.com/UAaAKROBOo — MX (@MxCl74613523) July 1, 2026 “The largest single gap-closing measure …
The numbers are starting to stack up. The US debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The new limit is now around $41.1 trillion. That gives Washington more room until 2027. But the market is watching something else: The cost of carrying all that debt. The …
US Treasuries dump hard, yields smash 2007 highs and climb toward 5 percent… Bond vigilantes force inflation forecast straight to 5 percent nightmare… Fed cornered into July rate hike or lose total control of the debt disaster… Just getting started 🔥 We’re going much higher 🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/QOecLbynC9 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 18, 2026 🚨 …
The world is drowning in debt and nobody is sounding the alarm. Over $300 trillion owed globally, more than three times what the planet produces in a year. The U.S. alone carries $38 trillion, Europe’s biggest economies are maxed out, and developing nations are borrowing faster than they have in fifty years. Rates go up …
BOJ rate decision this week.💹 The bond market has decided for the BOJ, which is why it’s most likely they will hike rates and it would be a colossal mistake if they don’t. More importantly, the BOJ is likely to pledge continued gradual rate hikes this week. This could trigger the carry trade unwind and …
BREAKING: THE THIRTY YEAR EXPERIMENT IS OVER Japan’s 10-year yield just hit 1.85 percent. Highest since the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But here is what no one is telling you: The 30-year yield touched 3.40 percent. The 40-year approaches 3.71 percent. These are levels never charted in modern Japanese monetary history. For three decades, the …
U may take a look into what is happening with SOFR-EFFR spread I plotted a chart for Last 8 yearsSOFR – EFFR 9 ( 5 day moving average ) pic.twitter.com/nEdtw2Iw9k — Shabeer Ali (@shabeeraly) November 3, 2025 The Fed’s recent repo injections, like the ~$29B on Nov 1, aim to ease short-term funding pressures amid …
US debt crisis is reaching historic levels — and for the first time in a century, America’s debt burden is on track to surpass Italy and Greece, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The warning comes as the United States faces record spending, surging interest payments, and widening deficits that show no signs of …
Economic momentum is slowing, yet officials keep pushing optimistic headlines. Ignoring these signals will hurt sooner or later, and ordinary people will feel the pinch first. Real estate makes up around 70% of gross household wealth in China 🇨🇳 Every 5% decline in home prices will wipe out 19 trillion yuan (~$2.7 trillion) in housing …
The U.S. workforce is running on a debt IV drip: – 52% of Americans carry credit card debt with rates now in the high 20% range!!! – Half don’t even know their interest rate Of those who think they do, half underestimate it. – Revolving balances are at record highs. – 20 years of wages …
via Mike Maharrey For the second straight month, consumer borrowing was weak, indicating Americans might be close to their credit limits. Over the last several months, credit card spending has dropped, signaling that Americans may be running out of borrowing power. This is bad news for an economy that depends on consumers buying stuff to …
The US federal debt just hit 36.66 trillion dollars. That’s an all-time high. But the real story is velocity. In just two weeks, public debt jumped 441 billion dollars. That’s not seasonal. That’s a panic refill. The Treasury General Account, the government’s checking account, was nearly drained during the debt ceiling standoff. Now it’s being …
Wall Street is gearing up for a massive surge in Treasury bill issuance in the third quarter, that is more than half a trillion dollars. That means the government is borrowing heavily to cover spending, which puts pressure on interest rates and could crowd out private investment. “Net issuance of Treasury bills in the third …
Total household debt just hit a record $18.2T, up $167B in Q1. This isn’t prosperity. It’s survival—fueled by credit. Households aren’t thriving. They’re borrowing just to stay afloat. pic.twitter.com/jvqIHKvews — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) May 14, 2025 Total household debt increased by $167 billion in Q1 2025, to $18.20 trillion pic.twitter.com/FQSWotqNKD — Amanda Goodall …
“For decades, the Japanese and Chinese produced more than they consumed and saved the difference. A part of those savings got invested in US treasuries, which meant the US govt could spend more than it earned and borrow the difference. The more Asian savings grew, the more US borrowing surged. Western economists understood this mechanism, …
by Mike Maharrey There is growing evidence that Americans may be edging close to the credit limit. That’s bad news for an economy that has run on credit cards for the last few years and adds to worries that the U.S. could be barreling toward a recession. After slowing in January, consumer borrowing crashed in …
The silver squeeze is here. A 12% borrowing fee? That’s the market screaming at shorts to run for cover. There aren’t enough shares to go around, and 47,000 in-the-money calls are set to expire. If you’re caught short, you’re trapped. 🚨 12% SILVER BORROWING FEE. UNPRECEDENTED.This is nature’s way of saying ‘don’t short silver’. pic.twitter.com/E9FgTyKCl5 …
The recent data from SEC Form PF reveals a staggering reality: prime brokerage borrowing has eclipsed $2 trillion, raising alarm bells within the financial industry. While leveraging investments through borrowing is a common practice, it is crucial to recognize the myriad risks that accompany such strategies. Leverage risk looms large, as borrowing to invest can …
US consumer borrowing has ground to a halt. Tapped out? pic.twitter.com/KH335Qw4lD — PPG (@PPGMacro) May 29, 2024 The recent data on U.S. consumer borrowing paints a concerning picture of financial stability. Delinquency rates, which Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank highlighted as a critical indicator, have indeed surged in early 2024. This uptick …
Rep Jodey Arrington criticizes Joe Biden’s budget proposal by alleging that it will lead to record levels of government spending, borrowing, and taxation, potentially exacerbating inflation, interest rates, and living costs for working families. It expresses concern that these policies could steer the country toward economic instability and a sovereign debt crisis, while also implying …
The Treasury funds its deficits by borrowing more money, leading to a cycle of increasing debt. With interest payments reaching historic highs and set to climb further, concerns over the US Dollar’s stability are mounting. Investment management giant BlackRock issues a warning, advising investors to shift some cash reserves into bonds amid market volatility and …
This trend raises alarm about the broader risks from interlinked dependencies. LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) – Europe’s private credit funds are increasingly borrowing from banks to boost their performance, fuelling concerns about the wider risks posed by this interconnectedness. A record 80% of new European private credit funds borrowed from banks via ‘subscription lines’ in …
The intricate dance of economic indicators has unveiled a story of shifting tides in residential construction spending, mortgages, and job cuts. Let’s delve into the latest data and decipher the narrative. As the residential construction spending spotlight dims, a critical player takes center stage: borrowing. A decline in borrowing echoes across the economic stage, leading …
The updated $95 billion supplemental bill without the border provisions captured the necessary 60 votes needed The package includes $61 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel in its war against Hamas and $4.83 billion to support partners in the Indo-Pacific It also also provides $9.15 billion in humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza and …
Source: https://www.sec.gov/files/rules/final/2024/ia-6546.pdf TLDRS SEC adopts amendments to enhance private fund reporting including those also registered with the CFTC. The amendments to Form PF will enhance reporting by large hedge fund advisers on various aspects such as investment exposures, borrowing, counterparty exposure, risk metrics, and investment performance to improve insight into fund operations and strategies, and enhance …
by confoundedinterest17 Constitution Avenue in Washington DC is actually becoming Tobacco Road. No, not the dysfunctional family of Georgia sharecroppers during the Great Depression, but the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC). On Monday, after we got the first part of the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA), in which the Treasury unexpectedly announced a big drop in its borrowing …
Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility. https://t.co/0Yt4STWbb9 pic.twitter.com/UYElYhjQxa — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) December 22, 2023 via Bloomberg: Banks borrowed …
The agreed four-day cease fire between Israel and Hamas starts today. Both camps will release hostages and humanitarian aid will be allowed into Gaza. While perhaps promising to the outside world, both camps make sure to bring across the cease fire is temporary and should not at all be interpreted as a start of the …
Credit card balances often misrepresent borrowing as they mainly indicate spending. Despite being a primary consumer payment method in the US, many pay off their full balances monthly. In 2022, credit card transactions reached $5.8 trillion, up 18% YoY due to increased spending on travel and services amid inflation. Q3 saw credit card balances rise …
by confoundedinterest17 President Joe Biden and his boss Barack Obama remind me of the legendary corrupt Chicago politicians First Ward Alderman Michael “Hinky Dink” McKenna and “Bathhouse” John Coughlin. And their love of “boodle” (a slang term money, gained (Biden family payoffs from foreign countries), or spent improperly (Obama shipping large pallets of cash to US enemy …