Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Higher deficits & unemployment, more govt borrowing, more money supply, more inflation… And the US wants to wage war in Ukraine & a Messianic one in the middle east? China sees the US Empire over-extended, & will soon heat-up the South China Sea…https://t.co/kSQOeRIsfH — St. Aubrun (@st_aubrun) November 2, 2023 FED'S POWELL: WE ARE NOT …
"We estimate that the Treasury will need to borrow $1.5 trillion over the current and the next quarter, after having already borrowed $1.0 trillion in the last quarter" – DB — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 30, 2023 GDP is a backward looking indicator, but this 4.9% real GDP print is what out of control fiscal spending …
Financial winter is coming. h/t Mayhem4Markets
HSBC’s CEO and other prominent leaders in the financial world are issuing dire warnings about the world teetering on the brink of a debt crisis, driven by years of extensive government borrowing. They emphasize the urgent need to address the mounting debt levels. The data presented underscores that we have yet to witness the full …
from Joseph Brown: The Reverse Repo facility has seen $1 trillion drain out in just the last 6 months What happens when it runs out? Its important to remember what this account is for, and where this money came from in the first place 🧵👇🏼 When all the money printing started in 2020, this account …
It's hard to see a case for interest rate cuts returning anytime soon. However, we continue to believe that rates will PAUSE for longer. Inflation to 2% remains the Fed's number one objective right now. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 2, 2023 As I've …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20230906.pdf This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City based on information collected on or before August 28, 2023. Highlights: “Some Districts highlighted reports suggesting consumers may have exhausted their savings and are relying more on borrowing to support spending.” “Bankers from different Districts had mixed experiences with growth …
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20230824/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW
by Dismal-Jellyfish What we are monitoring: Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Discount Window/Primary Credit “Other Credit Extensions” I hope to shed light on the recent uptick in borrowing due to an attempt to offset the initial shrink in M2 and dip in deposits. Buckle up! Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20230810/ https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW 781.1%!!! Date …
The longer the Fed keeps raising interest rates while using their balance sheet to bail out banks and the ultra wealthy, the more deeply buried the middle class becomes trying to borrow their way through inflation. Personal interest payments: pic.twitter.com/UdeKfTTszD — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 10, 2023 US Core CPI is still at a staggering 4.7% …
Credit Crunch Alert! Rejection rate for Americans applying for credit – whether it’s a mortgage, new car loan, or a credit card – increased to 21.8%, the highest level since June 2018. Borrowing money is getting tougher, folks! — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 2, 2023 https://t.co/KWFwz5TumF — Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) August 2, 2023 The …
On the evening of July 17th, 2023, Evergrande’s official website released 3 financial reports, including the 2021 financial report, the 2022 mid-year report, and the annual report. Everyone already knows that Evergrande is a mess, but no one expected it to be so bad: a net loss of US$120 billion in two years! Its liabilities …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/margin-accounts/margin-statistics Source: https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/2021-03/margin-statistics.xlsx Wut mean?: According to FINRA Rule 4521(d), FINRA member firms with customer margin accounts must report by the last business day of each month: Total debit balances in securities margin accounts. Total free credit balances in all cash and securities margin accounts. Debit Balances in Customers’ Securities Margin Accounts increased: …
The U.S. Congressional Budget Office released a report earlier this year projecting the national debt will be nearly twice as large as the U.S. economy in 30 years. Budget groups continue to release dire forecasts for the explosive growth of the U.S. national debt. The U.S. Treasury reported a $1.4 trillion deficit so far nine …
Loan-to-deposit ratio has seen the sharpest rise since the 1990s This is the result of consumer borrowing increasing at an unprecedented pace pic.twitter.com/gKl61K9iQN — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 29, 2023 “We’re in an inflationary debt bubble, meaning that consumers are using credit to chase inflation. Based on the assumption that interest rates are coming down …
Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/H41RESPPALDKNWW Tool Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) Up from 3/15, 1st week of program ($ billion) 3/15 $11.943 billion $0 billion 3/22 $53.669 billion $41.723 billion 3/29 $64.403 billion $52.460 billion 3/31 $64.595 billion $52.652 billion 4/5 $79.021 billion $67.258 billion 4/12 $71.837 billion $59.894 billion 4/19 $73.982 billion $62.039 …
What recession bulls say. The deficit is worse than 6 out of 8 recessions since 1960. Borrowing 6% of GDP to grow 1%. Hyper moronic. pic.twitter.com/AtYikK5CX4 — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 6, 2023 US National Debt Spikes by $359 billion on 1st Day after Debt Ceiling Suspended. TGA Begins to Get Refilled, Draining Liquidity from Market …