Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
If ur a foreigner holding US stocks, ur risk cannot even be quantified. If dollar collapses to 80, and even if stocks go to 7000, you won’t win. If dollar and stocks both collapse ? You are fucked . Get out now . https://t.co/MvpJZBh47p — tic toc (@TicTocTick) June 4, 2025 Central banks have been …
Global gold production is essentially flat from seven years ago. Then add: ▪️Mining capex remains historically depressed. ▪️Very few significant gold discoveries in recent years. ▪️Almost no major projects expected to come online over the next 5-7 years. Keep in mind that central banks still hold less than 20% of their balance sheets in gold …
GOOGLE WARNS: QUANTUM COMPUTERS COULD CRACK BITCOIN MUCH FASTER THAN EXPECTED Google’s latest quantum computing research just blew a hole in old encryption timelines. It now estimates that a quantum machine with fewer than one million noisy qubits could break 2048-bit RSA encryption in under a week. That’s 20 times faster than previous forecasts and …
2/ Japan’s 30-year bond yield just hit 3.14%, an all-time high. The 40-year? A record 3.6%. Why? A failed bond auction—no one wanted the debt. That’s dangerous. https://t.co/uHGaZh41mF — Neil McCoy-Ward (@NeilMcCoyWard) May 28, 2025 4/ Meanwhile, U.S. 30-year yields breached 5% last week. That pushes up mortgage rates, car loans, and credit costs. And …
This isn’t just about higher borrowing costs; it’s a signal that inflation and debt are forcing a reckoning. Given the recent House-passed tax bill that could balloon the U.S. debt further, and the bond market’s reaction with yields hitting highs not seen since 2007, the pressure is on. NEW INFLATIONARY REGIME HAS BEGUN! This is …
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says they plan to reduce leverage requirements for banks this summer. Reducing the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) would allow banks to hold less capital against low-risk assets like Treasuries and reserves pic.twitter.com/fM0e8S6wmL — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) May 24, 2025
We have more confirmation of a huge and unusual rise in bank lending to this offshore category. It parallels other similar corroboration which raises several thorny issues, leaving us with two broad interpretations for what this really means. With new data becoming available, it raises the stakes for a possible next time.
🚨BREAKING: 🇨🇦 Big Six banks are hoarding loan-loss reserves and watching lending grind to a halt under the chokehold of Trump’s trade war. pic.twitter.com/bD2RsiVgeA — Shazi (@ShaziGoalie) May 21, 2025 Canada’s Big Six banks are tightening their grip on loan-loss reserves, bracing for economic uncertainty as Trump’s trade policies send shockwaves through financial markets. The …
Bank of America calling for ATH pic.twitter.com/02CKeH2VjO — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) May 20, 2025 Perhaps the real reason the Fed has been reluctant to cut interest rates is that FOMC members realize that doing so will result in long-term rates rising. Since higher long-term rates will amount to an unwarranted tightening, the best way the Fed …
By Egon von Greyerz The highly acclaimed crypto market is undergoing a harsh correction, painfully demonstrating how quickly governments can put this asset class in distress, not for wealth preservation. In the U.S. and globally, prices are rising at rates not seen in decades. Asset price inflation is now spreading to everyday goods as the velocity …
The global financial landscape is shifting rapidly, with major economies facing mounting pressures. The United States, Japan, and China are each grappling with economic challenges that could reshape markets in the coming months. Investors are watching closely as debt concerns, monetary policy shifts, and geopolitical tensions unfold. The United States saw its credit rating downgraded …
Fractional reserve banking is a house of cards—built to fail, just like in 1932 when banks collapsed and the government seized gold in ’33. I saw Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s downfall coming, and today’s numbers are just as stark. America’s $36T debt is a ticking bomb, and unlike… pic.twitter.com/jWVUSy4866 — Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb) May …
On a hazy Southern California morning, undercover police officers watched Jiayong Yu step out of a Range Rover in a strip-mall parking lot and walk into a Chase bank with a black-leather backpack full of cash. At the teller window, Yu pulled out stacks of bills and waited while a woman fed them into a …
A net 19% of banks tightened lending standards for large and medium-sized firms in Q1 2025, the highest share since Q3 2023. At the same time, a net 16% of banks tightened lending standards for small businesses, the highest share since Q1 2024. Furthermore, the number of banks reporting weaker demand for large firms’ loans …
Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them and credit default swaps have cast …
Gold (and central banks) know that neither Congress nor the White House has any plan in place to cut off relentless peacetime, "non-recession" deficit spending. Source: CBO pic.twitter.com/Mg8H8x8yDf — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) May 5, 2025 Heading into 2025, $GLD was underperforming the S&P 500 since 2020 by ~10%. However, as uncertainty has risen, $GLD is …
What TF is up with the Taiwan Dollar? pic.twitter.com/NLS1yDni51 — Nobody Special (@JG_Nuke) May 5, 2025 Pretty succinct overview of what’s going on. If the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis happened because Asian banks had too much USD liability mismatch, this time it seems they have too much USD asset mismatch. And no one on this …
Trump presented the new budget in which he requests $1 trillion for defense – MorePerfectUnion Trump has asked Congress to increase the defense budget for the next fiscal year to $1.01 trillion, the White House has officially announced. The proposal includes: – $163 billion in cuts to health care, child care, education, housing, research, clean …
🇺🇸⚡️- DownDetector shows a massive spike in outages reported among all major payment processors, banks, and card companies, including Visa, Wells Fargo, First National Bank, Discover, CashApp, and more. https://t.co/aFBawTDo2H pic.twitter.com/I6SR4QvZzO — Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News, and Alerts (@officialrnintel) April 30, 2025
⚠️Central banks have been AHEAD of the game: Since October 2022, the gold wealth of developed and emerging market central banks has DOUBLED. DM central banks' gold ownership hit $1.3 TRILLION while EM $800 billion. Poland, China, and India have been the largest buyers. pic.twitter.com/9RNfSBQuws — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 29, 2025 Chinese media …
The Silent Banking Crisis: Understanding the $482 Billion Time Bomb U.S. banks are currently sitting on $482 billion in unrealized losses on their investment securities primarily long-dated Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities bought during the 0% interest rate era. This figure has jumped 33% in just the last quarter, making it the worst paper loss environment …
With foreign central bank appetite for US Treasuries in retreat, what will replace the current system? I don't think anyone knows. The chart below suggests we go back to substantial central bank gold holdings. Maybe. IMHO, fragmentation and a broad erosion of trust is a likely… pic.twitter.com/GoT59qsevI — Axel Merk (@AxelMerk) April 27, 2025
While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn’t a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments.
This is spot on. They NEVER truly reached restrictive levels and hot money has been allowed to slosh endlessly around the system particularly since COVID. Now Powell will be summarily dismissed in order to install an even greater Dovish lackey. — Sold At The Top (@soldatthetop) April 21, 2025 Central banks are buying.China is buying.Insiders …
Several large gold ETF funds in CN have stopped subscribing, and many banks have issued risk warnings. Ordinary investors believe that in their eyes, a rise is a risk, and now they are warning of the risk, which means that gold will continue to rise sharply. pic.twitter.com/3tQTj50jzC — Bai, Xiaojun (@oriental_ghost) April 18, 2025
There is a quiet theft happening in plain sight. Banks like Chase and Bank of America are paying you a humiliating 0.01 percent on your savings. That is not a typo. For every thousand dollars you keep with them, you get one dime a year. It is not just a bad deal. It is financial …
Central bankers all over the world kept saying, nah, we’re not going to do it this time. They weren’t going to race to the bottom, cutting their interest rates back down to historical lows. And the data keeps coming in that says, yeah, you are. Troubling developments along these lines as Europe goes more for …
Central banks almost never say they intervene in currency markets. In a survey, half said they do. Central banks report they were likely to boost gold holding while none reported crypto holdings The 21st annual Central Banking survey, sponsored by HSBC, has revealed that currency market intervention by central banks is far more common than …
