Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
via James Hickman For centuries, the Byzantine Empire’s gold coin, known as the solidus, had been the backbone of global trade in the medieval world; nearly pure gold, the solidus was trusted by merchants from Baghdad to London. But by the 11th century, multiple emperors had chipped away at its gold content—watering it down to …
“The Fed playing God with the US economy and trying things they weren’t sure would work,” says Chris Whalen, chairman of Whelan Global Advisors. In today’s interview with Daniela Cambone, Whalen criticizes the Fed’s unconventional monetary policies—particularly the low interest rates and quantitative easing implemented during COVID. Now, the Fed is reversing some of that …
via Phoenix Capital Research Last week I noted that the single most important chart in the world is flashing “danger.” By quick way of review… The defining trend of the last 45 years was the secular bull market in bonds. This bull market meant that throughout that period debt was ever increasingly cheaper to issue. …
Chinese 🇨🇳 commercial banks including China Minsheng Banking and Huaxia Bank are tightening oversight of clients using credit cards to fund stock investments as retail investors pile into the nation’s $1 trillion market rally this month. Banks warned that credit card funds and cash advances can’t be used for investments with violations leading to canceled …
Are office buildings the last prop holding banks from imploding? Small banks are hiding massive losses in CRE. Massive, like going out of business levels of losses. That's why they're kicking the can hoping they don't have to foreclose. There's nothing to foreclose on. This shit would make Lehman look like a walk in the …
Germany’s Bundesbank is eyeing a shortcut for small and medium-sized banks. Basel capital rules could be scrapped in favor of a single leverage ratio. No risk-weighting. No buffers. Just raw exposure. https://finanz-szene.de/banking/bundesbank-erwaegt-verzicht-auf-basel-anforderungen-fuer-kleinbanken/ The leverage ratio was never meant to stand alone. It’s a backstop, not a blueprint. “Before a small commercial bank would breach a …
Well the FFR is 4%. Why do banks get to charge 30% on the people who can’t afford it? It won’t end well — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 17, 2025
March 2008: Bear Stearns collapses under toxic mortgage exposure. The Fed guarantees $30 billion in assets. JPMorgan acquires it for $10 a share. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bear-stearns.asp August 2025: Trump demands Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan resign over alleged China ties and then floats a federal stake to support the delayed $28 billion Ohio chip plant. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/8/14/us-government-in-talks-to-take-stake-in-intel-report Intel stock …
If they cut the bond market will instantly drive the yield back up . Rates are based on risk we are an insolvent nation drowning in debt that can't even afford the interest only payments . — Jason the mason (@NobodyThan) August 13, 2025 YES. The Fed is going to cut with the most lagged …
$KRE -7% since 21st July notably. Something brewing with the banks? 🤔 — Godzilla Trader 🦖 (@David_Tracey) August 11, 2025 Condo prices are collapsing pic.twitter.com/YBmN3BkkZO — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 11, 2025 https://twitter.com/VladTheInflator/status/1954720087023481049
It is mathematically impossible to pay off the national debt unless the Fed literally prints it away, which will cause Weimar-style hyperinflation. Got silver? byu/Boo_Randy_II inWallstreetsilver It is mathematically impossible to pay off the national debt unless the Fed literally prints it away, which will cause Weimar-style hyperinflation. Got silver? byu/Boo_Randy_II inWallstreetsilver
The U.S. Treasury just tried to borrow $42 billion in a 10-year auction. The auction tailed. Demand was soft. Foreign banks didn’t show. The bonds cleared at 4.255%, nearly 0.01% above trader expectations. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-06-2025/card/treasury-yields-extend-rise-after-lackluster-10-year-note-auction-HTBkouvfXmDCyCkNft6O 🚨The U.S. just tried to borrow $42B in a 10-year auction. The auction tailed, demand tanked, and even foreign banks stepped …
“The Banks are not afraid of anything except regulators… and their wives.” Absolute banger.🔥 pic.twitter.com/5ZoypqbjUl — Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) August 5, 2025
Nobody wants buy gov. Debt. Central bank holdings of government debt: • 🇯🇵 Japan: Over 50% of all outstanding government debt • 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Approaching 50% of the outstanding debt • 🇪🇺 Eurozone: Nearly one-third of outstanding sovereign bonds • 🇺🇸 United States: Around one-quarter of all… — Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@GoldTelegraph_) July 27, …
Hong Kong’s banking system just entered high alert. What began as a coordinated stablecoin rollout is now unraveling into something more serious. On July 22, internal communication circulated among Hong Kong’s monetary authorities warned of acute stress across token-backed reserves and real-time settlement chains. The letter outlined scenarios where liquidity could evaporate if collateralized redemption …
Powell avoided the rate topic entirely. No hints. No guidance. Instead, he opened the Fed’s capital rule review on July 22 with a blunt message: big banks need stronger capital buffers, and they need freedom to compete. The speech dropped at 10:04 AM Eastern. No policy lines. Just structure. Fed is reviewing how it calculates …
It started quiet. Then it spread. A zero-day flaw buried inside Microsoft’s SharePoint server software has been exploited in a sweeping cyberattack. The breach began July 18. It’s now confirmed that federal agencies, universities, energy firms, and banks have been compromised. The flaw allows remote code execution. No login needed. No warning. No patch for …
The Bank of England, in coordination with European supervisors, is now asking major banks to run internal stress tests for a once unthinkable scenario: a full scale U.S. dollar funding shock. This includes modeling situations where access to dollar liquidity, even via swap lines could freeze entirely. These requests, made quietly through the BoE’s Prudential …
Gold is no longer tethered to the dollar index. It’s been moving sideways from currency markets for months. The break became visible in April when the dollar index fell 6.4% off its March high, but gold kept climbing. It hit $3,288 per ounce on July 1. That is not noise. That is decoupling. The technicals …
Gold just got promoted. As of July 1, 2025, physical gold is now officially classified as a Tier 1 asset under U.S. Basel III banking regulations. That means banks can count gold at 100% of its market value toward their core capital reserves. No haircut. No markdown. Same treatment as cash or Treasuries. This is …
What did this Zillow analysis look like back in spring 2021 during the Pandemic Housing Boom? Below is Zillow’s May 2021 reading—published in June 2021. pic.twitter.com/r8pxhCdOra — Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) June 30, 2025 FED COULD CUT RATES FOUR TIMES STARTING OCTOBER Julius Baer anticipates a series of 25-basis-point interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting …
The Bank for International Settlements just dropped its annual report, and it reads like a warning label. The global economy is entering what they call a pivotal moment. Not a soft patch. Not a cycle. A structural shift. The kind that doesn’t reverse with a rate cut or a stimulus bill. Agustín Carstens, the outgoing …
“Banks are free to serve crypto clients and pursue crypto activities as long as doing so providing safety and soundness” – Wow 😳pic.twitter.com/QkIGXtVeWa https://t.co/ldC9A6UKLp — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) June 24, 2025
Many guys are not understanding some few basic economic facts. Yes Trump is pro business & pro growth. 100%. But the way he schemed & plotted pretending to be negotiating for peace, this means no one and I mean no country is gonna buy and hoard treasuries & dollars. Then he… — tic toc (@TicTocTick) …
In this video a Financially Struggling 40 year old man expresses his frustration about how poor he and everybody he knows is. The cost of living is becoming so high that even those who are working full time are barely scraping by. He also talks about how it is only going to get harder for …
It wasn’t a flare-up or a trader’s stunt. The number came and stayed. Gold clocked out Friday at $3,461 per ounce. That’s no typo. The yellow metal locked in the highest close in history, topping both the daily and the weekly charts. It didn’t whisper. It was a full-throated roar from a market that’s had …
WARNING: World debt has now officially crossed $300 trillion And still continues to climb aggressively This is not looking good… pic.twitter.com/CIc0BKEhBo — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 4, 2025 Why aren’t they loading up on Bitcoin? https://t.co/36owOQbnGR — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June 5, 2025 Hard assets. https://t.co/2rIsh9jI02 — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 5, 2025 Here …
