Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
PCE inflation rose to 4.1 percent annual rate in May. This up from 3.8 percent in April. Core PCE without food and energy also higher at around 3.4 percent. Energy prices main driver from ongoing Middle East issues. Real wages feel squeeze as prices outrun paychecks for many. Video from Rebel Capitalist points out this …
The Fed just held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% and sounded pretty hawkish. No rush to cut. Inflation still matters. Higher-for-longer remains the message. So far, pretty straightforward. Then I looked at the balance sheet. According to David Rosenberg, the Fed’s balance sheet has been growing at roughly a 10% annualized rate over the …
The $12 poverty tax byu/gashtal_man inFluentInFinance You can avoid fee if keep $1,500 minimum daily balance OR get $250+ direct deposit each month OR join their rewards program. Many poor people who can’t meet this pay the $12. Post call it “$12 poverty tax” because being low money cost you extra. Comments many angry, say …
U.S. Rep. David Scott, a Georgia Democrat and the first Black chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, has died. He was 80. Now, there are five open seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Read more: https://abc7.com/18942985/
On Tuesday, April 14, at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong, CEO Georges Elhedery said something on live Bloomberg television that should have detonated every energy desk on earth. It did not. Because nobody is reading what it actually means. “The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, …
New data reveals 40% of Americans cannot afford to pay their credit card balances each month. Americans now owe more credit card debt than at any point in history. pic.twitter.com/H51zAZd99f — FactPost (@factpostnews) March 18, 2026 A growing share of Americans are falling behind on their credit card payments, with new data showing nearly 40% …
🇩🇪 German Chancellor Merz just told Germans they can't maintain prosperity with 4-day weeks and work-life balance. Brother, your economy is dying because you shut down nuclear plants, made energy unaffordable, drowned businesses in regulations, and let competitiveness collapse.… https://t.co/otkkUPTTQw pic.twitter.com/nZZEnV8j4W — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) February 13, 2026 Friedrich Merz and the CDU/CSU have indeed …
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by Michael The total population of the United States has risen to 342 million, and most of them believe that they will live to a ripe old age. But as the world teeters on the brink of the unthinkable, scientists have just moved the Doomsday Clock closer to midnight than ever before. We are being …
Former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot is being sued by JPMorgan Chase over an unpaid MileagePlus United credit card balance of $11,078.01 pic.twitter.com/AvcKEtO38q — Frank Calabrese (@FrankCalabrese) January 13, 2026 Former Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot was sued at the end of last year after allegedly failing to pay more than $11,000 in credit card bills, records …
by Michael It is far easier to start wars than it is to end them. As we watch global events develop, so many of us have a really bad feeling about what is ahead. Without a doubt, 2025 has been a time of “wars and rumors of wars”, but it appears that things are ready to go …
Crazy to think that money supply is expanding this aggressively even as global central bank balance sheets have been contracting. We’ve seen a $10T increase in global money supply in just the past 12 months. Now imagine what happens once central banks inevitably need to expand their balance sheets again — which, in my view, …
Adelaide Stone Van Gessel says she doesn’t agree with partisan gerrymandering in practice. But she voted yes on Proposition 50, a California ballot measure that would allow the state’s Democratic leaders to temporarily bypass California’s independent redistricting commission and enact a more Democratic-friendly congressional map ahead of next year’s midterm elections. Van Gessel and others …
$1.33 trillion in credit card debt. That is not strength. That is panic. The average family owes $10,668. You can feel it in the lines at the grocery store, in the gas pump, in the monthly bills that never stop. Yellen says it shows “a strong consumer.” Families call it desperation. First Brands just collapsed. …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, At its latest FOMC meeting, the Fed discussed the ampleness of $6 trillion. Increasing Definition of Ample In January of 2007, prior to the Great Recession, the Fed’s total balance sheet was under $875 billion. And the Fed held no mortgage backed securities (MBS). That was considered ample. January …
“The Fed playing God with the US economy and trying things they weren’t sure would work,” says Chris Whalen, chairman of Whelan Global Advisors. In today’s interview with Daniela Cambone, Whalen criticizes the Fed’s unconventional monetary policies—particularly the low interest rates and quantitative easing implemented during COVID. Now, the Fed is reversing some of that …
The Big Short wasn’t about 2008. It was about every earnings call you’re watching right now. 2006: lenders bragged about profits while delinquency rates exploded. 2025: – Corporates brag about “AI revenue” but hide costs. – They brag about “stable headcount” but bury workforce hollowing. – They brag about “strong balance sheets” but roll silent …
Link to article:https://t.co/PjjGEIgPNo — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) August 28, 2025
Workers at Boeing’s defense plant in St. Louis just said no to a four-year contract. The union plans to strike starting at midnight Monday if nothing changes. Tom Boelling from the union said, “IAM District 837 members deserve a contract that reflects their skill, dedication, and the critical role they play in our nation’s defense.” …
The only thing these companies will be mining in a year is Chapter 11 paperwork. WSJ Small companies are pouring billions into bitcoin and lesser-known cryptocurrencies — raising big questions about risk, regulation, and what could go wrong if the market turns. — First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) July 26, 2025 We have eclipsed peak insanity. In …
The Bank of Japan is shrinking its balance sheet at a record pace: The Bank of Japan’s bond holdings dropped by -6.2 trillion Yen in Q1 2025, the most on record. Over the last 5 quarters, the BoJ's holdings have now declined by -14.2 trillion Yen. As a result, the BoJ's… pic.twitter.com/JJjLSzhyka — The Kobeissi …
Builders are sitting on more houses than they can sell, and that could spell trouble for the entire housing sector. We currently have the most homes for sale in the sunbelt in US history. This would be front page news if they didn't think it would cause a panic pic.twitter.com/FyhTIZu5ka — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May …
It’s a desperate move. If their core business were solid, they wouldn’t need to hype it up by adding Bitcoin to make it more attractive. This is a sign of the AI bubble bursting. — Citizen Watch Report (@Citizenwatchrep) May 5, 2025 Nvidia, a leading technology company, is being speculated to consider a strategic allocation …
Yields are more likely to crash in the coming months, not the opposite. pic.twitter.com/QNo5b0NzIb — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) April 25, 2025 Hardship 401k withdrawals running 15-20% above norms pic.twitter.com/C4VOxqXuNB — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) April 25, 2025 This is stunning: 44% of Americans now believe they will be WORSE OFF financially in …
Earnings are set to disappoint, and it’s not just about outlooks. The damage is already done. Some are wondering why the Russell 2000 is getting hammered while tech stocks are the focus of the pullback. Others debate whether earnings themselves will be bad or if only guidance will suffer. The answer is simple: both are …
Fed Minutes (January 2025) Fed can maintain policy at restrictive level if economy strong Several participants suggest halting or slowing balance sheet reduction pending debt ceiling resolution Two participants believe risks to achieving inflation mandate outweigh risks to employment mandate Most participants judged risks to dual mandate objectives were roughly in balance Fed wants further …
by confoundedinterest17 One reason that US home prices remain high (and unaffordable for many) is The Federal Reserve (aka, The Green Slime). Former Fed Chair (and Biden’s Treasury Secretary is no Luciana Paluzzi, the Italian beauty from the James Bond film Thunderball. Yellen is just a far-left economic hack. Look at the Case-Shiller national home price index …
Investors should brace for possible shifts as the tightening continues, with bigger moves on the horizon. RRP nearly drained pic.twitter.com/wIFR4J106L — Max Anderson (@MaxAnderson) January 23, 2025 DXY ripping (drives down global liquidity) pic.twitter.com/ZK32fgsPeW — Max Anderson (@MaxAnderson) January 23, 2025
The Fed's balance sheet is now down 23.8% since its peak. pic.twitter.com/r8nxZ4AJHu — Augur Infinity (@AugurInfinity) January 17, 2025 $TLT call options volume was the 2nd highest in history on Wednesday 🚨 pic.twitter.com/2DcZ7eMUGf — Barchart (@Barchart) January 17, 2025 I highly recommend you watch @TruthGundlach full 1hr video from today. I've clipped it down to …
