SPY Closed at 614.91. The index is brushing against its all-time high of 616.39. Short-term momentum is still intact, but breadth is thinning. RSI is hovering near 60, not overbought, but not fresh either. The next two weeks are light on macro data, but earnings season kicks off July 12 with the banks. If the 10Y yield stays under 4.3%, SPY could grind toward 630. But if CPI on July 11 comes in hot, expect a pullback to the 590s. Watch for rotation under the hood. Staples and healthcare are starting to catch a bid.
CRCL Trading at 0.33 GBp, down nearly 6% today. Volume is heavy but not climactic. This is a microcap with a £19.8M market cap and a 52-week range of 0.09 to 0.42. The stock is drifting after its IPO pop in early June. Analysts have a 12-month target of 205 GBp, but that’s a fantasy unless USDC adoption or crypto volumes spike. Sentiment is bearish short term. Could see a bounce if BTC breaks $70K, but otherwise it’s a slow bleed unless a catalyst hits.
COIN Closed at 353.43, down 5.7% on Friday. This is a volatility magnet. BTC is stuck under $63K, and COIN is trading like a levered proxy. The stock is still up over 140% YTD, but the air is thin. RSI is cooling off, and the 50-day MA is down at 312. If crypto doesn’t catch a bid this week, COIN could test 340, then 320. On the flip side, if BTC breaks $66K, COIN could rip back to 380. Options flow is still bullish, but the IV crush is real.
LEU Closed at 168.66, down 3.6%. This one’s been a monster, up 400% YTD. But the last two weeks have been choppy. Uranium spot prices are stable, but the stock is digesting. RSI is back under 60. Analysts have a wide range of targets, from $58 to $300. If it holds 160, it could base and push back toward 190. But if it loses 155, the next support is 138. Watch for DOE headlines or enrichment contract chatter.
FCX Closed at 43.87. Copper is stuck in a range, and FCX is drifting with it. The 52-week high is 52.61, but that was when copper was flirting with $5. Now it’s back near $4.30. China PMI came in soft, and that’s weighing on the tape. If copper breaks below $4.20, FCX could revisit 41. If it holds and pushes back toward $4.50, FCX could reclaim 46. Dividend yield is 1.36%, not enough to anchor it if the macro turns.
MSFT Closed at 495.94, just under its all-time high. The stock is up 18% YTD, but it’s lagging NVDA and META. Copilot adoption is strong, but the market wants to see monetization. Earnings are July 25. Until then, it’s a drift. If it breaks 500 with volume, it could run to 520. If it fails again, expect a pullback to 475. RSI is neutral. No urgency either way. Just a slow melt.
NVDA Closed at 157.75. This is the market’s engine. It’s up 85% YTD and just printed a new high. RSI is 70, but no one cares. The stock is riding the Blackwell ramp and Saudi AI deals. Earnings aren’t until late August, so the next few weeks are about sentiment and flows. If it holds 155, it could grind to 165. If it breaks 150, the next support is 142. But every dip has been bought. Until that changes, the trend is your friend.
TSLA Closed at 323.63. The stock is up 75% from its April low, but it’s still down 34% from its 52-week high. Robotaxi hype is priced in. Q2 deliveries are due this week. If they miss, the stock could drop to 300 fast. If they beat, it could spike to 340. But margins are thin, and competition is rising. RSI is cooling. This is a coin flip into earnings. Not a place to be brave unless you have a strong view.