Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Guest Post by Jordan Roy-Byrne at thedailygold.com: Gold is on the cusp of a major breakout from its super-bullish cup and handle pattern. The measured upside target is $3000/oz, and the log target is roughly $4000/oz. These targets may sound extreme, but breakouts from multi-decade bases are rare but very bullish. Furthermore, a breakout from …
Guest Post by Nick Giamburno at International Man: It’s been rightly said that “he who holds the gold makes the rules.” After World War 2, the US had the largest gold reserves in the world, by far. Along with winning the war, this let the US reconstruct the global monetary system around the dollar. …
Guest Post by Charles Hugh Smith at Oftwominds.com: This is how we’ll end up with severe shortages of truly skilled labor and high unemployment of those who lack the necessary skills. The labor force and the job market are referred to as if they were monolithic structures. But they’re not monolithic, they are complex aggregates of very different cohorts …
Guest Post by Richard Mills from Aheadoftheherd.com: Earlier, we listed the various reasons why the US dollar is headed lower. But this doesn’t mean all safe-haven assets are in for a reality check. In fact, this might be an opportune time to invest in precious metals, in particular gold and silver, given the current state of …
Guest Post by Michael Maharrey at SchiffGold.com: Could the commercial real estate market be the next thing to break in this bubble economy? The rampant money creation and zero percent interest rates during the COVID pandemic on top of three rounds of quantitative easing and more than a decade of artificially low interest rates in the wake …
RELAX everything’s going to be fine, if there was ANY chance of collapse all the “experts” on the main collapse subreddit would be all over this. /s via realclearmarkets: “In purely technical terms, all these together are betting heavily on lower interest rates all over the world in the not-too-distant future. As they’ve come to …
by okie1 New data just came in. Use of fed’s liquidity facilities declined again: View post on imgur.com This is where the money was coming from to create the demand for T bills, which is what was bringing rates down at the lower end of the yield curve. T bills are a cash equivalent that …
by Chris Black These are the biggest loans (a little bit different from QE though, as they must be repaid with interest >0 ) in the history of the Federal Reserve by the way. RT: US banks took out a combined $164.8 billion in loans from two Federal Reserve facilities over the past fortnihght, Fed …
by Chris Black I don’t know how to tell you that and how many time we will have to tell you that (stop reading fear-porn-selling retards like Snyder) but the stock market will never “crash” ever again. At most it will drop 10%, they will halt trading, printers will go brrr overnight and it will …
by Chris Black A bag of rocks. My Sides! They should have gone with magic beans instead – so much funnier. UK is literally Charlie Brown. The London Metal Exchange finds bags of stones instead of the nickel that underpinned a handful of its contracts at a warehouse in Rotterdam https://t.co/xu9JD5tQ5H — Bloomberg (@business) March …
by TheNewbieInvestor Everytime this happened, the Fed pivoted 2-year yield has now moved below the Fed funds rate pic.twitter.com/8fsrsDToh2 — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) March 17, 2023 Looks like my hunch was correct. This tweet was from Thursday, the day before #SVB failed. QE unofficially resumes on Monday. #Powell folded. The #Fed has pivoted. Americans will pay …
55 Trillion in garbage derivatives + 16:1 naked short in Silver and 4:1 naked short Gold + 2-Week Jim Cramer Effect = DOOM! JP Morgan is a fortress — Jim Cramer (@jimcramer) March 10, 2023 Closer to 50 Trillion at the end of last year. https://www.usbanklocations.com/bank-rank/derivatives.html AC
via NYPOST: Bill Ackman in a tweet on Friday said Bank of America is going to acquire Signature Bank on Monday, without citing the source of the information. “I am hearing that @BankofAmerica is going to buy Signature Bank on Monday. Unless and until we can protect uninsured deposits, the cost of capital is going to rise for smaller banks …
by Dismal-Jellyfish It gets even more interesting! 1 year ago: 3/16: 18,073.5395 Billion. High was hit 4/13/2022: 18,130.6814 Billion. Over half a trillion in deposits pulled in the last year! Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Deposits, All Commercial Banks [DPSACBW027SBOG], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOG, March …
by recklessSPY The Fed was on track to keep raising rates to stop inflation. Unemployment still hot and retail still spending. No reason to abate – maintain rates. Some banks f’d up and didn’t hedge their interest rate risk. Runs on regional banks showed how fragile the system is. Fed comes in to plug what …
Top Chart: Over the past +50 years, the inversions of the 50 day SMA of the 10 year treasury rates minus the 50 day SMA of the 3 month treasury rates have all preceded the start of a U.S. recession (there have been no false indicators or exceptions to this rule). The 8 recessions …
“We need to keep raising rates until something breaks and inflation eases” <Something breaks> “Wait wait no, not that thing.” It’s very important that inflation is brought into check by poor people losing their jobs. Not rich people losing their deposits. NEW Banking Crisis In One Chart, Inflation=Fed Rate Hikes=Treasury/MBS Duration Increases=Bond Loss So, the Biden Administration …
Fed Loaned $160 Billion to Banks and $142 billion to FDIC. But QT-Related Roll-off Continued At around 4.75%, plus collateral, these are expensive loans for banks. The Fed’s Discount Window Soared to Its Highest Level Since the Previous Financial Crisis of 2008 Fed Dead Redemption! Flight To Safety As US Treasury 10-Year Yield Drops …
Total deposits across all banks are much higher now, $17.6t now vs $6.7t in 2008. https://wolfstreet.com/2023/03/16/fed-loaned-160-billion-to-banks-and-142-billion-to-fdic-but-qt-related-roll-off-continued/ In 2008 banks had trouble because they were holding lots of mortgages and MBSs and their value went down a lot, losing them ton of money, forcing liquidation. In 2022, old TBills value went down a lot due to …
The bond market is showing the most fear outside of the 2008 crisis. Equity and currency volatility are at much lower levels, while the MOVE gauge of Treasuries volatility is at its highest level since 2011. This suggests that investors are becoming increasingly worried about the possibility of a sharp rise in interest rates. h/t …
via justice.gov: Department of Justice Office of Public Affairs FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Thursday, March 9, 2023 Former Wall Street Precious Metal Traders Sentenced for Wire Fraud Two former Wall Street traders were each sentenced today to one year and one day in prison for engaging in a multi-year fraud scheme to manipulate U.S. commodities markets …
I was gonna put some into the CD. 3.75 apr. Just today they pulled that offer from the website. This is not looking good folks. AC
🚨#BREAKING: Signature Bank, has been closed by State authorities. — R A W S A L E R T S (@rawsalerts) March 12, 2023 Regulators closed New York’s Signature Bank, citing systemic risk. Signature is one of the main banks to the cryptocurrency industry. As of Dec. 31, Signature had $110.4 billion in total assets …
Another Bank specializing in Tech loans and services for “High Net Worth Individuals”, but more of a Public bank than SVB was. The cashless society people really want that cash! https://twitter.com/_/status/1634783756656492544 https://twitter.com/_/status/1634790617627914240 View post on imgur.com Contagion has already spread. My local First Republic Bank was closed today (normally open), could not do wires or …
via benzinga: PacWest Bancorp shares are trading lower by 28.61% to $14.20 Friday morning. The stock is sharply lower as shares of several regional banks and financial institutions sell off on downward momentum after SVB Financial Group Wednesday announced a $1.25 billion common stock offering. SVB Financial Group was also halted during pre-market trading Friday …
by BoatSurfer600
As long as they can fill in more money they won’t have to take any losses. Ohh wait, what happened to SVB. Translate for Retails… Unrealized gains or losses on investment securities refer to the changes in the value of an investment that have not yet been realized through a sale or disposition of the …
SVB works with literally like half of all US VC-backed startups, and is similarly popular for their banking services in the UK and wider Europe. If they find they’ve lost any significant portion of their funding then we’re going to see a large wave of western start-ups wiped/ significantly hobbled by SVB collapsing. $42B WITHDRAWN …