Fed pivoted already?

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by TheNewbieInvestor

It took the Fed exactly 1 week to undo 5 MONTHS of balance sheet reductions and tightening… Fed Assets:

  • Nov 16, ’22: $8.625T
  • Mar 8, ’23: $8.342T
  • Mar 15, ’23: $8.639T
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Source: fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

Not to mention that US bond yields have dropped sharply and most short-term notes (1- to 5-year ones) are back to roughly their November levels. The shorter notes have also dropped although less sharply. Source: www.wsj.com/market-data/bonds

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What are we looking at here? I’ve seen articles saying that Goldman Sachs and friends speculate there won’t be a rate increase next week and, from the looks of it, that is the case. It doesn’t make sense to print $300 billion only to raise rates a few days later! Obviously, that puts the Fed in a very scary place and I honestly don’t envy Powell (although I’ll argue it’s their fault this is happening in the first place!) given that just a week ago he said they need to pick up the pace of rate increases because inflation was persistent.

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I am personally smelling an imminent panic (likely leading to further losses), but weirdly enough Michael Burry(out of all people!) was hopeful:¬†twitter.com/BurryArchive/status/1636028550708068353/photo/1. Still, I’m trying to stay away from most stocks and just stockpiling cash and going after my high-conviction stocks plus some gold and the world stock index as a bit of a hedge.

What do you think? Are we seeing rates rising or are the rate increases stopping next week?

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