2/ The S&P 500 just broke above its 200-day moving average – one of the market’s most important resistance levels
Investors are celebrating a temporary trade deal between the US and China, hoping it leads to a broader agreement
But consumer sentiment is telling a different… pic.twitter.com/VEzmH0Wuyy
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 28, 2025
4/ This data comes from the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index
Which tracks how people view their personal finances and the broader economic outlook
The latest reading came in at 52 – one of the lowest levels ever recorded pic.twitter.com/eSEgUkisBo
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 28, 2025
6/ When we invert the Consumer Confidence Index and put the unemployment rate on top, something striking appears:
Consumer confidence often leads unemployment
This was the case in 2020, 2008, 2001, and in every US recession going back to 1953 pic.twitter.com/bPfkdnAqjT
— Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 28, 2025