Compiling a list of current data focused economic concerns

by drsupermrcool

Hey all – am working to compile a list of all current structural economic problems that we’re tracking along with the corresponding data/facts to back those points

Extended yield curve inversion which predates most (if not all) recessions in the US

https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/treasury-yields-invert-as-investors-weigh-risk-of-recession.html

Unemployment has small rises in the past couple of reports – trend wise this isn’t possible without a recession

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

Real wages not ticking up in the last couple years – we’re talking 1-2% vs inflation of 5% and rent/home price increases

wage: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q

cpi: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

rent: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SEHA

home price: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

Regional bank failures caused by commercial loans due to lack of return to office – a lot of these loans are at more favorable rates, and the leases are generally 5-15 years

https://www.livemint.com/news/first-foundation-plunges-as-unexpected-fund-raise-puts-real-estate-loans-in-focus-11720044106972.html

We’ll see how that subsection of the economy plays out as the Fed tries to encourage return to office (really everywhere except NYC seems to be struggling with decreased return to office) – https://fortune.com/2024/06/29/return-to-office-san-francisco-doom-loop-fed-president-mary-daly/