Cap rates aren’t competitive, making real estate less attractive than bonds.

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TLDR:

  • Real estate cap rates and stabilized yields are less attractive than other asset classes.
  • Multifamily lending from Fannie and Freddie offers better risk-adjusted returns than equity deals.
  • Investment-grade corporate bonds (AAA, BBB) yield similar or higher returns with lower risk.
  • Common equity investors are getting worse deals than lenders, who are securing better returns.
  • Cap rates need to rise to 7%+ to make common equity in real estate appealing again.
  • Sellers resist exits at 7% cap rates, preferring to sell at lower caps.
  • Market may stabilize around 6.5-7 cap if rates stay the same.
  • Opportunistic returns lie in creative, structured financing, not common equity yet.
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Real estate’s current equity market is facing a major disconnect. With cap rates offering returns similar to lower-risk, investment-grade bonds, why would investors continue chasing lower returns in equity? For common equity to be appealing again, we need to see a shift to 7%+ cap rates. However, sellers are reluctant to sell at those levels, creating a standoff. Until that happens, the smart play is in structured financing, as common equity isn’t offering the returns needed to attract investors right now.


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