A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year, the government budget deficit in 2024 will be $1.6 trillion.

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A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year, see the first chart below. The government budget deficit in 2024 will be $1.4 trillion according to the CBO, and the Fed has been running down its balance sheet by $60 billion per month.

The bottom line is that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024. That is more than one-third of US government debt outstanding. And more than one-third of US GDP.

This may be a particular challenge when the biggest holders of US Treasuries, namely foreigners, continue to shrink their share, see the second chart.

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More fundamentally, interest rate-sensitive balance sheets such as households, pension, and insurance have been the biggest buyers of Treasuries in 2023, and the question is whether they will continue to buy once the Fed starts cutting rates.

Our updated outlook for Treasury demand is available here.


The government budget deficit in 2024 is projected to be $1.6 trillion according to the Congressional Budget Office. It grows to $1.8 trillion in 2025 and then returns to $1.6 trillion by 2027. Thereafter, deficits steadily mount, reaching $2.6 trillion in 2034. Measured in relation to gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit amounts to 5.6 percent in 2024, grows to 6.1 percent in 2025, and then shrinks to 5.2 percent in 2027 and 2028. After 2028, deficits climb as a percentage of GDP, returning to 6.1 percent in 2034. Debt held by the public increases from 99 percent of GDP at the end of 2024 to 116 percent of GDP—the highest level ever recorded—by the end of 2034. After 2034, debt would continue to grow if current laws generally remained unchanged

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