JP Morgan Q1 results beat on record trading revenue, yet Dimon is issuing quiet warnings on “unprecedented” tail risks and structural inflation persistence. They are selling their “record” performance to the crowd before the credit cycle turns.
$JPM closed lower Tuesday despite beating earnings estimates across the board, and the culprit is net interest income guidance.
The bank now expects NII of around $94.5 billion for the full year, which came in below what Wall Street was looking for. That single number…
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🚨 Jamie Dimon’dan Wall Street’e "Fırtına Öncesi Sessizlik" Uyarısı! 🏦🌪️
JPMorgan ( $JPM) bilançosunun ardından, bankanın kaptanı Jamie Dimon’ın yaptığı açıklamalar aslında piyasanın neden tam anlamıyla kutlama yapamadığını özetliyor. Dimon, rakamlar ne kadar "yeşil" gelirse… pic.twitter.com/bGYUTuexHg
— NASDAQ 7/24 (@PubNasdaq) April 14, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Q1 earnings beat, but NII outlook trimmed
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stock slipped 0.9% in Tuesday premarket trading after the Wall Street giant trimmed its guidance for 2026 firmwide net interest income (NII). Q1 earnings and revenue, though, both topped the average analyst estimates, driven by growth across the bank’s businesses combined with a lower provision for credit losses.
Firmwide, the bank expects NII of ~$103B, market dependent, compared with the Visible Alpha consensus of $104.6B and its previous outlook of $104.5B. The company reaffirmed its guidance for 2026 NII, excluding markets, of ~$95B.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) also still expects 2026 adjusted expenses of ~$105B. Card service net charge-off rate is still expected to be ~3.4%.
Q1 EPS of $5.94, topping the average analyst estimate of $5.51, increased from adjusted EPS of $5.23 in Q4 2025 and EPS of $5.07 in Q1 2025.
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JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon continued to see a remarkably resilient consumer but also noted risks overhanging the economy. “The U.S. economy remained resilient in the quarter, with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy,” he said. “Several tailwinds are supporting this resiliency, including increased fiscal stimulus, the benefits of deregulation, AI-driven capital investment, and the Fed’s asset purchases. At the same time, there is an increasingly complex set of risks — such as geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices.”