US imports have started contracting. The chart shows that inbound loaded containers arriving at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports in California were shrinking as of October.
US imports were the main pillar of global trade in the past three years. Hence, a drop in US imports would entail a contraction of global trade/exports.
This is also corroborated by shrinking Japanese exports – see https://x.com/BudaghyanArthur/status/1992677721848344610.
Global trade/exports is the key driver of EM risk assets. Hence, shrinking global trade is a bad omen for EM risk assets.
https://twitter.com/BudaghyanArthur/status/1995241120196907051/history
The year-over-year slump continues at the Port of Los Angeles and Port of Long Beach, though they both remain on track to approach the year-end cargo volumes from 2024.
The Port of Los Angeles reported processing a total of 848,431 cargo containers in October, while the Port of Long Beach reported 839,671. These numbers put them down, respectively, about 6.3% and 14.9% from October 2024. Combined, the two ports moved nearly 1.69 million containers in October, down from the nearly 1.9 million they moved last October.
Still, the two ports’ ability to remain within striking distance of last year’s record numbers in a trade year marred by sclerotic tariff policy is a feat. For the first 10 months of 2025, the Port of L.A. is up about 2% while Long Beach is up by about 4%.
https://labusinessjournal.com/featured/cargo-volumes-soften-at-both-ports-in-october/