Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Something very bad is brewing. Futures now getting REKT 💀 pic.twitter.com/E3bgYlDfVZ — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 18, 2026 Futures getting CRUSHED Never seen a crash this big Tomorrow will be BAD Buckle up! pic.twitter.com/lrnHeCx622 — Michael (Hedge Fund Manager) (@HedgeFundFomo) May 17, 2026 If you think this is bad, beware this is only the appetiser …
U.S. Gears Up for Ground Invasion of Iran: The U.S. is accelerating the deployment of approximately 8,000 additional Marines and sailors to the Middle East. In a show of rapid deployment, the USS Boxer Amphibious Ready Group is arriving ahead of schedule with roughly 4,000 Marines and sailors. They will link up with the USS …
9 large companies filed for bankruptcy in the US last week. This brings the 3-week average to 6, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts Mega bankruptcies becoming more common among large firms There’s an ongoing surge in mega bankruptcies (large companies with significant assets) across the U.S., driven by rising interest rates, …
BREAKING: BLS estimates the US economy ADDED +130,000 jobs in January, above expectations of +55,000. Over 60% of employment gains came from healthcare. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%, from, 4.45 and below expectations of 4.4%. Revisions reduced job growth in November and December by a combined -17,000 versus prior reports. In other words, ALL …
One of Kentucky’s largest bourbon producers apparently is pausing whiskey production at the end of the year. Jim Beam, which is one of the largest makers of American whiskey in the world, is planning to shut down production in Happy Hollow in Clermont on Jan. 1 through 2026. The visitors center on site will remain …
US imports have started contracting. The chart shows that inbound loaded containers arriving at the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports in California were shrinking as of October. US imports were the main pillar of global trade in the past three years. Hence, a drop in US imports would entail a contraction of global trade/exports. …
Markets, especially the major financial stocks globally, have begun to respond to dramatically altered liquidity prospects. Marketplace liquidity is mercurial, especially late in the cycle. Market blowoffs fueled by speculative leverage guarantee acute liquidity instability. On the upside, self-reinforcing speculation and leveraging propagate liquidity overabundance and the perception of endless liquidity. But speculative melt-ups set …
Michael Burry just closed his fund, top signal. pic.twitter.com/8O1Al5TPRe — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) November 13, 2025 BREAKING 🚨: Michael Burry Michael Burry to close down his hedge fund by year end after acknowledging he doesn't understand today's market pic.twitter.com/vrCIRNf5xH — Barchart (@Barchart) November 13, 2025 Happy Thursday. pic.twitter.com/g1YXL7Jc2l — Brew Markets (@brewmarkets) November 13, 2025 Since …
Warning to young investors margin and leverage can turn market dips into financial disasters. The composite Nasdaq volume have been screwy lately due to some heavy share volume in penny stocks, so I am leery about trusting any insights from those data. Here is the traditional (not ratio-adjusted) Volume Summation Index for the stocks in …
Historical profit margin swings over 20% warn of looming U.S. equity cycle change Dear AI, I hope that this time things are different, because every time the percentage deviation from the linear growth of the SPX profit margin exceeded 20%, it signaled a shift in the cycle for U.S. equities. pic.twitter.com/hFjQPXg7Dq — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) …
BREAKING: US stock market futures fall sharply as President Trump says China has violated their trade deal with the US. https://t.co/le2EqSOfkg pic.twitter.com/oqTa6XbuXk — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 30, 2025 BREAKING Trump reveals China has stalled on tariff talks. pic.twitter.com/OefYi102ul — tic toc (@TicTocTick) May 30, 2025 Trump: The bad news is that China, perhaps …
🚨The US job market is deteriorating: Long-term unemployment hit 1.67 MILLION in April, the highest in 3 YEARS. The share of individuals unemployed for more than 27 weeks of total unemployment hit 23.5%, the highest in 3 years. This has never occurred outside of recessions. pic.twitter.com/wLh8mDxEDN — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) May 5, 2025 🚨 …
BREAKING: Job postings on Indeed dropped -10% year-over-year last week to the lowest in 4 years. Over the last 3 years, job postings have declined -33%. As a result, available vacancies are just 8% above pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, NEW job postings have dropped -40%… https://t.co/NjibDegyuc pic.twitter.com/2ZBcCISntm — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 1, 2025
Wow. Notable drop in consumer sentiment in February. American consumers do not like tariffs. "About one-third of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs, up from 27% last month and less than 2% prior to the election." "This is only the fifth time in 14 years we have seen such… pic.twitter.com/SpjN6uanoX — Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) February 7, 2025 …
A high quits rate means employees are confident quitting because they believe finding a new, better-paying job will be easy. 2/ — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 22, 2025 At EPB Research, we focus on the quits rate in construction and manufacturing — the two key swing factors in the labor market.https://t.co/unsbPbt8Za 4/ pic.twitter.com/b2ANDBYBlL — Eric …
The New Tenant Rent Index, which leads CPI Rent, declined sharply in Q4. pic.twitter.com/tx68aJFd8c — Augur Infinity (@AugurInfinity) January 22, 2025 Powell has mentioned the Cleveland Fed "New" rents vs. that of "All" rents, knowing that New will lead the All. New rents just came in at -2.43%. pic.twitter.com/1sQf9eCaiQ — Randy Woodward (@TheBondFreak) January 22, …
What have we learned from the market this Fall? There are 2 paths forward for Real Estate and both are painful: 1. Higher rates, stagnant market, layoffs, prices grind flat or down 2. Lower rates that come when the economy collapses, not because the Fed waves a magic wand — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 20, …
⚠️BRACE FOR MORE US JOB MARKET DATA REVISIONS⚠️ Nonfarm payrolls will likely be revised DOWNWARD by another ~300,000 jobs for 2Q 2024. This is according to the QCEW data released by the BLS. If this trend continues, it will turn out that August and October saw JOB LOSSES. pic.twitter.com/rA3cgv6En6 — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) December …
The EU and the Euro are a failed project. Only a small number of European countries are competitive/innovative. 👇 pic.twitter.com/nT3P0ENAOe — Dutch 🇳🇱🧡 (@Mio_Mind) November 22, 2024
WARNING: Small business earnings are contracting sharply This is typically seen heading into economic downturns pic.twitter.com/pxrdn3cxzP — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) November 20, 2024 Small business earnings are sharply contracting, a clear warning sign of an impending economic downturn. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has remained below its 50-year average of 98 for 34 consecutive …
Gold Update Bounced off the lower line to perfection. https://t.co/JvxvY2j78g pic.twitter.com/6mdGUgxg4j — The Great Martis (@great_martis) November 18, 2024 $VIX is climbing the trendline on schedule. https://t.co/myeNVTjU6f pic.twitter.com/PEZoGRoTUR — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 18, 2024
“Alongside geopolitical risks, not least the spectre of an escalation in US-China trade tensions, these factors will preserve depreciatory pressure on the yuan.” https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3285423/chinas-yuan-falls-sharply-donald-trump-declares-us-election-win As we found in our October trip to Shanghai and Beijing, the overwhelming majority of Chinese clients have been expecting a Trump victory. Indeed, many of those who expressed a preference …
Job cuts accelerate in October with strikes, mass furloughs, layoffs, & small business closures at elevated levels. Over 109,000 cuts per our preliminary figure. Final figure available on Sunday, as always. #MacroEdge #DrivenbyData pic.twitter.com/9cPnR1qDr9 — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 31, 2024 *US BLS: OCT. TRANSPORT EQUIP. JOBS FALL 44K, REFLECTING STRIKE *US BLS:HURRICANES LIKELY AFFECTED OCT. …
30-Year Treasury Yield fell below 4% for the first time this year 🚨 pic.twitter.com/giQ4QczZtV — Barchart (@Barchart) September 11, 2024 Risk appetite has deteriorated sharply in September to its lowest for nearly two-and-a-half years pic.twitter.com/mdIHyhEb5t — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 11, 2024 BREAKING 🚨: Crude Oil Hedge Funds are now the least bullish on …
"The Trump administration sharply reduced funding to some UN agencies, but President Biden has largely reversed those cuts."👇https://t.co/Swwu78EISi https://t.co/O4gjKFhaKx — DoctorRay (@DrNoMask) August 29, 2024
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls US Treasury yields fell by up to 5 basis points to 3.807% as investors anticipated larger Fed rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled readiness to cut inte… More here: https://t.co/AdIot28g1y pic.twitter.com/rGam65VO7z — TRADING ECONOMICS (@tEconomics) August 23, 2024 Powell: "the time has come" for the central bank …
Trade Services: The claim about trade services seeing the second-largest drop on record (-1.3%) in July and now being negative year-over-year is accurate. This reflects a significant decline in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. Economic Data Surprises: Economic data surprises have indeed been weak for several months, indicating that economic indicators have been consistently …
Insiders are finally beginning to throw in the towel right now. After a historic run, insiders want to realize their profits. The next few months are going to be much more volatile for equity investors. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 26, 2024 Have insiders …
The recent insights into consumer sentiment and economic outlook paint a complex picture of financial strain and diverging spending patterns across different segments of the economy. With 31% of recent home buyers citing financial challenges like budget constraints and high interest rates, it’s clear that affordability concerns are widespread and impacting major purchasing decisions. Moreover, …
Yields moving higher quickly today are a reminder that interest expense is skyrocketing at a terrifying pace because rates started moving up with ever-rising debt levels over the last two years, after being suppressed by low Fed Funds rates and QE policies in the years prior. pic.twitter.com/mxEMpkotTb — David Sommers (@dgsommersmkts) May 28, 2024 The …