Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden

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A new set of polls shows Donald J. Trump leading President Biden in five battleground states, where yearning for change and dissatisfaction with the economy and the war in Gaza among young, black and white voters Latinos threaten to undo the president’s Democratic coalition.

Polls from the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer found Mr. Trump leading among registered voters in direct competition with Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. And Pennsylvania. Biden led among registered voters in just one state, Wisconsin.

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[You can find the full survey results, including the specific questions asked, here. You can find answers to frequently asked questions about our voting process here.]

The race was tighter among likely voters. Trump also led in five states, but Biden led in Michigan, while trailing narrowly in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While Biden won these six states in 2020, victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin would be enough for him to win re-election, provided he wins everywhere he won four years ago.

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The results were similar in a hypothetical contest including minor party candidates and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who won an average of 10% of the vote in all six states and received nearly equal votes from both candidates from the main parties. .

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