This bond trade looks boring right before it stops being boring.
$TLT – Accumulation with Macro Fuel!
After falling 55% from its 2020 high, $TLT has spent the last 18+ months basing. During that time, weekly volume is up 40–60% vs. the 2015–2019 average, a strong sign of institutional accumulation at depressed prices!
Technically:
– Price holding above the 2023 lows ($85–87)
– Weekly RSI 40–45, no longer in bearish extremes
– Downside momentum has stalled while volatility compresses.Macro:
– Long yields have stopped making higher highs
– Historically, when 10Y yields peak, TLT rallies 30–50% over the following cycleTargets
– Base case: $115–120 (+30%+)
– Bull case: $130–140 (+50%+)
– Risk-off scenario: $140+Hated asset, heavy volume and accumulation, flat price.
That’s how bottoms are built, sentiment is turning and this will rip!
$TLT – Accumulation with Macro Fuel!
After falling 55% from its 2020 high, $TLT has spent the last 18+ months basing. During that time, weekly volume is up 40–60% vs. the 2015–2019 average, a strong sign of institutional accumulation at depressed prices!
Technically:
– Price… pic.twitter.com/YaVlOV5aOB— Common Sense Investor (CSI) (@commonsenseplay) January 22, 2026
You can see the orderly part of disinflation and now the disorderly part about to start.
Very similar cycle to previous Fed cutting cycles.
If you think the next leg is up for inflation, you are very mistaken. https://t.co/XdEztX6VRW
— Fibonacci Investing⚡️ (@FibonacciInves1) January 22, 2026
‼️US freight shipments are COLLAPSING:
The Cass Freight Index, a key measure of freight volumes, FELL TO 0.93 in December, the lowest since the 2020 CRISIS low.
Excluding 2020, this is the lowest level since the Great Financial Crisis.
Freight shipments have declined for 3… pic.twitter.com/lAGnMs2x8t
— Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) January 23, 2026