TLT spent 18 months going nowhere while institutions quietly piled in. This setup never looks obvious at the bottom.

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This bond trade looks boring right before it stops being boring.

$TLT – Accumulation with Macro Fuel!

After falling 55% from its 2020 high, $TLT has spent the last 18+ months basing. During that time, weekly volume is up 40–60% vs. the 2015–2019 average, a strong sign of institutional accumulation at depressed prices!

Technically:
– Price holding above the 2023 lows ($85–87)
– Weekly RSI 40–45, no longer in bearish extremes
– Downside momentum has stalled while volatility compresses.

Macro:
– Long yields have stopped making higher highs
– Historically, when 10Y yields peak, TLT rallies 30–50% over the following cycle

Targets
– Base case: $115–120 (+30%+)
– Bull case: $130–140 (+50%+)
– Risk-off scenario: $140+

Hated asset, heavy volume and accumulation, flat price.

That’s how bottoms are built, sentiment is turning and this will rip!