Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
THE U.S. STOCK MARKET IS ABOUT TO CRASH COMPLETELY. 2008 GFC Crash: – S&P 500 dumped 20%, then pumped 14% before another 53% drop. 2020 Covid Crash: – $SPX dumped 15%, then pumped 9% before another 30% drop. 2025 Tariffs Crash: – SPX dumped 10%, then pumped 5% before another 16% drop. 2026 Dump: – …
What is often overlooked is that the Fed primarily controls demand-side inflation, not supply-side inflation. In other words, it can influence how much people borrow and spend, but it cannot directly increase supply, like producing more oil. This means that in the case of a supply-shock, as we are seeing now with energy prices, the …
Could be sharper than 10%-12% imo https://t.co/xQz9Do8T90 — Ali (@Mrhigh611) February 26, 2026 If this plays out, it will not be about fear, it will be about positioning. Nvidia is now down -10% since they reported their strongest quarter ever on Wednesday. pic.twitter.com/wqsvZa5Nyi — Satoshi Stacker (@StackerSatoshi) February 27, 2026 PPI came in much hotter …
Mag 7 cutting buybacks and borrowing while private credit guys talk about heavy drawdowns and yields keep grinding higher is not “AI strength,” it’s stress showing through the paint. Money isn’t cheap anymore, lenders are pulling back, and somehow people still act like companies can burn billions a quarter forever. Then you look at the …
This bond trade looks boring right before it stops being boring. $TLT – Accumulation with Macro Fuel! After falling 55% from its 2020 high, $TLT has spent the last 18+ months basing. During that time, weekly volume is up 40–60% vs. the 2015–2019 average, a strong sign of institutional accumulation at depressed prices! Technically: – …
This is the part where everyone points to spending and jobs like proof everything’s fine, right before both roll over at the same time. THE STOCK MARKET CRASH IS SET UP PERFECTLY! 1. Consumers are still spending money they don’t have. – Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP – But personal savings are near …
Japan’s 10-year JGB yield touched 1.917% on Thursday the highest level since 2007. It’s basically the market’s way of signaling that investors aren’t fully convinced about the Bank of Japan’s current policy path. The BOJ is stuck between two bad options: Raise rates further: yields likely push even higher, tightening conditions at a time when …
“In October alone, there were 36,766 foreclosure filings — the first step in the process, when a lender warns a borrower they’re in default. That’s up three percent from September and 19 percent from a year ago… lenders formally started foreclosure proceedings on 25,129 homes in October — up six percent from last month and …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Powell says risks to inflation are to the upside. Risks to labor market are to the downside. The Fed’s live Press conference was interesting. I made some notes. Someone marked the YouTube I posted as “private”. You can Replay the Video from the Fed website. Powell Comments Its a “challenging, unusual …
SPY’s up. But internals are cracking. RSI over 80. Stochastic signals stalling. Price action’s heavy. Hedge funds dumped $60B in index exposure last week. Retail’s still chasing. Fed’s rate cut already priced in. No upside surprise left. One of the most predictable U-turn points in the market is when the price approaches a previous all-time …
Here is a quick chart I mustered up today… The ‘1929 trendline’ it’s a seldom and scary situation! pic.twitter.com/RKKuuDqKEn — Beachside Bagholder (@dax_mccaskill) July 18, 2025 2008 vs. 2025 Overlaying gold prices for the same period is even scarier. The ingredients are present now; all that's needed is a catalyst. https://t.co/8r1GIWZ7ys pic.twitter.com/a38GnrtieH — The Great …
The world is supposed to be all over the “sell America” trade, so why is it only this one key currency is? The thing is now sticking out like a sore thumb as more and more pile onto “sell America” here without any corroboration at all. Even FX modelers are confused by this insistence. What …
https://twitter.com/SoccerMomTrades/status/1939835719872106645
James Wynn's $1.26 billion Bitcoin long position with 40x leverage bets on price increase, using $31.6M margin to control 11,588 BTC. At Bitcoin's current price of $109,029, it's profitable, but a drop to $105,179 risks liquidation, losing the entire margin. High leverage… — Grok (@grok) May 24, 2025 James Wynn’s $1.26 billion Bitcoin long position …
2/ A lot of investors are anticipating a V-shaped recovery But for that, we’d need a dramatic shift in the economic outlook Basically, all the fears priced in earlier this year would need to vanish soon pic.twitter.com/e0olcH9a6J — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) May 19, 2025 4/ And we’ve seen V-shaped rebounds before The most recent example …
Buckle up. The market might not be as stable as it looks. **SPY/TLT (MY BAD)!!😬 — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) February 26, 2025 Maybe it's just coincidence, but this chart seems too significant to ignore. The consumer discretionary-to-staples ratio just formed a near-perfect double top, revisiting late-2021 levels. In my view, this is likely the beginning of a …
Trump orders crypto working group to draft new regulations, explore national stockpile Action orders working group to start work on crypto regulations Also orders banking services for crypto companies be protected Order bans creation of US central bank digital currencies Trump had courted crypto cash during presidential campaign Jan 23 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald …
by fan_of_hakiksexydays This probably won’t happen for a while, and probably will pump more before it crashes (because greed). But these Solana meme coin could be a ticking time bomb for 2025. -How hard is it to make a meme coin on Solana? Far easier than I think most people realize. Anyone can make their Solana …
Currency crises are destabilizing and horrible. The current setup is the most alarming I’ve witnessed during my career. It’s not today unreasonable to contemplate China stockpiling gold and commodities ahead of a currency devaluation. Seems reasonable for Asian economies, and EM more generally, to build inventories while they have the liquidity to do so. Reasonable …
The Daily Gold, Released on 2/14/24 Gold stocks are approaching extremely oversold levels and their valuations are near all-time lows. Sentiment is in the toilet. The common denominator behind the biggest rebounds in the gold stocks (as seen in 2008, 2016 and 2020) was the big move in Gold each time. If Gold makes a …
As we all now know, former President Donald Trump has been indicted on 37 counts of willful retention of national defense information, conspiracy to obstruct justice and false statements after a special counsel investigation. However, was the president set up by the federal government? That is a possible defense that floated into a letter to …
