No one expecting 3% real growth in the US any time soon. pic.twitter.com/dAc96aKccl
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) May 24, 2025
The structural problem for the US is simple.
Long-term GDP growth rate is falling.
US Debt has been ballooning which has caused US Federal Interest Payments to skyrocket.
Hence, the conundrum for the US Economy is:
To achieve long-term GDP growth while Public Consumption is… pic.twitter.com/9TIwQiBc2I
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) May 25, 2025
🚨 UPDATE: Elon Musk has now confirmed that he is disappointed in Congressional Republicans not implementing DOGE cuts.
Sad but predictable.
Elon now says the most viable path out of a debt spiral is accelerating GDP growth.
"Only radical improvements in productivity can save… pic.twitter.com/dwkzi21sax
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 25, 2025
The most likely explanation is that we are witnessing a coordinated, multinational escalation in military readiness. This isn’t just routine training it looks like a deliberate show of force, a deterrence posture, and possibly early-stage positioning ahead of a geopolitical… https://t.co/C8rpYDv2PM pic.twitter.com/L9iOMGaoNX
— EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) May 25, 2025
CHINESE STATE MEDIA REFERENCES ANALYSIS: U.S.-CHINA TRADE TENSIONS PERSIST, SIGNALS EXTENDED AND INTRICATE TALKS AHEAD
— First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) May 25, 2025
Global yields are in a holding pattern with a strong upside bias.
Continuation patterns are evident, particularly in the UK 10-year.
The major equities sell-off didn't impact yields, which is worrisome. A 40-50% sell-off with no recovery for years is needed; otherwise, we're… pic.twitter.com/0f8Kn2R0sx
— The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 24, 2025
It’s starting to feel like we’re circling the same storm we saw back in 1987. Most people still call that one Black Monday. But this time, it’s not just stocks that are cracking. It’s the whole framework. The system is stretched to its seams.
Look closely. The data isn’t hiding. GDP growth is losing steam while inflation keeps creeping higher. That’s not just a red flag. That’s textbook stagflation. And in stagflation, nothing works. The Fed can’t cut rates, and Congress won’t cut spending. You end up stuck with high prices, weak growth, and rising yields.
And those yields are starting to scream. Treasuries are falling out of favor. Foreign holders are backing away. Domestic buyers aren’t filling the gap. The only silent bidder left is the Fed, and they’re already sneaking back into the game. Not officially. No press release. But stealth moves. Liquidity injections. Repo games. Balance sheet magic. It’s QE without calling it QE. And that’s what’s putting the dollar on thin ice.
The greenback is already slumping. Charts don’t lie. Even a modest shock here could push it into a freefall. And that’s what would tip the next leg down. Because when the dollar breaks, confidence breaks with it.
Congress is nowhere to be found. Too compromised, too paralyzed, too late. The so-called DOGE cuts didn’t even make it into the final budget text. There’s no political will to balance anything. We’re past the point of patchwork fixes.
And outside our borders, it’s unraveling too. Peace talks are stalling, not progressing. Conflicts are multiplying. Eastern Europe, the Pacific, the Middle East. No one’s closing deals. Trade talks are collapsing, not forming. Global commerce is throttling down. Port volumes are light, shipping rates tell the story. World trade is stalling.
Every central bank is stuck. They can’t cut. They can’t print. If they stimulate, they lose the bond market. If they tighten, they crush growth. They’re frozen in place while bond yields shoot higher and sovereign debt looks increasingly like a toxic bet.
We’re heading into a zone beyond policy reach. This isn’t something a few rate cuts can fix. We’ve crossed into territory where confidence itself becomes the last pillar. And when that crumbles, it goes fast.