Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael It is getting very hard to deny that the U.S. economy is moving in the wrong direction. Yesterday, ADP reported that the U.S. economy shed tens of thousands of jobs last month. Today, Challenger, Gray & Christmas is reporting that U.S. employers announced a grand total of 1.17 million job cuts through the first 11 …
by Michael If your household is struggling to pay the bills right now, you are far from alone. The cost of just about everything that Americans regularly spend money on has been soaring, and as a result our standard of living has been steadily declining. Over the past couple of decades, our politicians borrowed and spent …
Basically cutting rates to 0 by end of next year https://t.co/jy5Cbb8oAU — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) December 3, 2025 Grok: Scott Bessent, Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, wants more White House say in picking Federal Reserve regional bank leaders. He’d require them to have lived in their area for 3+ years and might veto nominees who don’t. …
If you thought Jerome was loose with the stimmy gun…Hassett about to turn the Fed into a full blown meme factory. I came prepared: pic.twitter.com/H7Dg5Onhpc — MortgagesByM (@MortgagesByMB) December 2, 2025 President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he has chosen the next Federal Reserve chair, a decision unfolding as affordability pressures continue to …
via Phoenix Capital Research The financial system is currently undergoing a tectonic shift from paper assets to hard assets. And this has the potential to create life-changing profits for those who invest accordingly. There are two reasons for this tectonic shift: The AI technology race is now a matter of strategic importance to the U.S. …
JAPAN’S 2-YEAR YIELD HITS 1% FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2008, AND THE YEN CARRY TRADE JUST CRUMBLED OVERNIGHT. Stocks and Bitcoin mass liquidations return. pic.twitter.com/Uf3vxIsoRy — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) December 1, 2025 Japan’s bond market sent a clear signal this week. The country’s two-year government bond yield touched 1%. Its highest level since 2008. …
Note: “Weak consumer spending” refers to store expectations before the season started. Consumer spending ended up being high which is why Black Friday set a new record No paywall: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seasonal-hiring-offers-little-reprieve-for-labor-market-woes-110044972.html Plenty of Americans are expected to pour into stores and fill online carts this holiday shopping season. Fewer may be able to pick up seasonal work …
Spitznagel told Reuters (1) in an interview that he expects “an 80% crash” but also noted that he believes it will only happen “after a massive, euphoric, historic blow off rally.” While the stock market might be headed for an unstable future, he believes that a 20% gain for the S&P 500 index is possible …
Kīlauea began the 37th episode in its series of eruptions this afternoon with bursts of lava reaching hundreds of feet out of the volcano’s north vent. The volcanic activity at the Halemaʻumaʻu crater resumed at 2:30 p.m. and the lava fountain heights are increasing rapidly. h/t b4its2l8
Hundreds of airline catering workers blocked the entrance near Los Angeles International Airport on one of the busiest travel days of the year. “The demonstrations took place along Century Boulevard and outside the Los Angeles airport’s pickup and dropoff areas,” Fox 11 reported. “According to union leaders representing the LAX airline catering workers, the demonstration …
The U.S. housing market is going to face a price correction “worse than 2008,” according to housing analyst Melody Wright, who expects home prices to drop in half as soon as next year. “I think…we’re going to correct all the way to a point where household median income matches the home price, the median home …
“THE YEN CARRY SINGULARITY Japan’s 40-year bond just hit 3.69%. The highest since 2007. This is not a number. This is a detonator. Behind that yield sits $20 trillion in carry trade exposure. Borrowed yen funding everything from Treasuries to tech stocks to Bitcoin. For decades, this trade printed money. Now Japan’s bond market is …
The cost of Thanksgiving dinner in 1981 😳 pic.twitter.com/fhpQyqmBzY — Financial Dystopia (@financedystop) November 25, 2025 Based on 2025 AFBF survey and retail averages (prices vary by location): Turkey (16 lb): $21.50 Stuffing mix: $3.71 Cornbread mix: $1.25 Canned green beans: $1.50 Sweet potatoes (3 lb): $4.00 Marshmallows (10 oz): $1.50 Jellied cranberry sauce (14 …
$SPY is in danger of forming a Head & Shoulders… A 675 rejection would form the right shoulder After that, a 654 break would give us maximum downside to 480s😬😬 pic.twitter.com/mrOgdFMA62 — ThiccTeddy (@ThiccTeddy) November 24, 2025 GROK: Based on current charts (as of Nov 24, 2025), SPY shows elements of a potential head and …
Comparison: 2020 (COVID crash): ~610 large bankruptcies. 2021: ~400. 2022: ~450. 2023: ~500. 2025 YTD: 655 already. (Reuters) -Large U.S. corporate bankruptcies are on pace to hit their highest level in 15 years, S&P Global data showed on Thursday, underscoring mounting stress across corporate America at a sensitive time for public market investors. Total bankruptcy …
BREAKING: The US Labor Department announces that November CPI inflation data will be released on December 18th. The "employment situation" data for October and November and CPI inflation data are BOTH coming after the Fed meeting. The Fed is in a data blackout still. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) November 21, 2025 💥BREAKING: 🇺🇸 BLS …
“Here’s what’s going on with the Fed and Wall Street right now and it’s kinda wild when you understand the full picture (save this). The Fed created something called the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) back in 2021 as basically an emergency lending window for banks and dealers. Think of it like this, banks need cash …
42 % drop in home sales is enormous. The Chinese consumer has stopped spending. China is the # 2 largest economy in the world. It’s housing market is the largest asset class in the world. US is already in an undeclared recession. Watch 1st 3 to 5 minutes for main details. AC
by Michael When you look at that cover, what stands out to you? To me, the fact that there are so many symbols relating to war really got my attention. There is a huge red tank on one side of the cover, and another huge red tank on the other side of the cover. At …
Corporate Insiders are dumping near all-time highs 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/8BmuyrgkZv — Barchart (@Barchart) November 14, 2025 BREAKING: 655 US large companies have gone bankrupt year-to-date, the highest number in 15 years. This has already surpassed all previous full-year totals since 2011, except for 2024. Since 2022, bankruptcies have risen nearly +100%. This comes as 68 companies …
https://gasprices.aaa.com/ https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1 https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@LCO.1
Yes, there is a price to pay to reshore jobs. — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) November 10, 2025 Nearly 80% of voters in farming-dependent counties voted for Trump. Now, many of the farmers are on the brink of bankruptcy because of his policies. pic.twitter.com/alZKDPvW2h — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) November 10, 2025 Carmack and longtime friend …
I’m sorry but this is total nonsense. Look at global GDP, where on Earth does $20T come from? The tooth fairy? pic.twitter.com/Nea1Jks3wO — Sheldon Miller (@SheldonMiller) November 8, 2025 Yeah, it’s not happening, but the fact that people can even say it with a straight face shows how blown out and fake everything already is.
If the mortgage has to double in length, the market is already broken. If you stretch a 30-year mortgage to 50 years on the median U.S. home (~$410K) You’ll pay roughly $300K–$450K more in interest over the life of the loan. Sure, your monthly payment drops — but you’ll spend an extra two decades paying …
BREAKING 🅱️ Wendy's to close 300 stores nationwide starting later this year.. 👀 pic.twitter.com/C5fCmp6B2z — American AF 🇺🇸 (@iAnonPatriot) November 8, 2025 Ohio-based Wendy’s is planning to close hundreds more stores nationwide just a year after shuttering 140 locations. Interim CEO Ken Cook told investors in a Friday, Nov. 7, quarterly earnings call that the …
New York millionaires: threatening to flee the city since 2009 pic.twitter.com/nuOLxApYGW — The Daily Show (@TheDailyShow) November 7, 2025 NY State saw peaks of over 3,000 millionaires leaving annually around 2020, with cumulative net outflows shrinking its U.S. millionaire share from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022. High earners contribute about 40% of income …
US Rents were down 0.9% over the last year, the 29th consecutive month with a YoY decline. Renting a home is cheaper than paying a mortgage in all 50 of the largest metros in the US. byu/Boo_Randy_II inHouseBuyers
Democrats pull off a clean sweep in Tuesday’s elections, putting a foreign communist in charge of New York City, and voting for a man in Virginia who fantasized about murdering his political opponents. What can we learn from this? What should we do going forward?
by Michael It is starting to look a lot like the Great Recession again. I thought that the pace of layoffs in 2024 was bad, but it has just exploded here in 2025. Vast numbers of good paying jobs are being ruthlessly eliminated, and competition for any decent jobs that are still available has become …
It’s amazing to me that Trump and the GOP had the Democrats utterly DEFEATED just one year ago. The Democrats were abandoned as the party of lunatics, woke idiots, economic morons and pro-censorship tyrants. But since then, Trump has proven that his own administration is economically illiterate, that he’s willing to destroy U.S. businesses to …