Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Almost exactly one year ago, Jay Powell said: "I don't see the stag, nor the 'flation.'" Today, the Fed’s projections anticipate both. This is a timely reminder that we’re still grappling with a rare trifecta of macro imbalances: Inflation like the 1970s, government debt… pic.twitter.com/OKiiXDkyQp — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) May 7, 2025 When Powell …
Ford Motor Co. is increasing prices on its Mexico-built vehicles by as much as $2,000, becoming one of the first automakers to announce a price hike because of tariffs. Changes on dealer invoices became effective May 2 on the Maverick small pickup, Bronco Sport SUV and Mustang Mach-E all-electric crossover, according to the memo obtained …
U.S. Companies are buying back stock at the fastest pace in history 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/ftNXyp6RTW — Barchart (@Barchart) May 7, 2025 🚨This has NEVER happened before: Retail investors have been buying US equities for 21 weeks STRAIGHT, the longest streak EVER. This significantly beats the previous record of 10 consecutive weeks before the 2022 BEAR MARKET. …
by Mike Maharrey Demand for physical gold surged in the first quarter. But not in the United States. Asian investors primarily drove demand for gold bars and coins as American investors continued to sit on the sidelines. Global demand for gold bars and coins rose by a healthy 3 percent in the first quarter, rising …
The Department of Justice announces a significant blow to cartel operations, unveiling a major takedown that disrupts transnational criminal networks. This decisive action underscores the U.S. government’s commitment to dismantling organizations fueling the drug crisis.
by Michael Over the last several decades, the global economy has become more interconnected than ever, but now everything is changing. The flow of goods between the number one economic power on the planet and the number two economic power on the planet is absolutely imploding, and that is going to have enormous implications on …
by Fidler_2K https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/trump-tariffs-hit-us-exports-import-covid-level-event.html The Port of Portland, Oregon, tops the list with a 51% decrease in exports, while the Port of Tacoma, Washington, a large agricultural export port, has seen a 28% decrease. Tacoma’s top destinations for corn, soybeans and other ag exports include Japan, China and South Korea. The trade data shows declines of …
Scott Bessent, who is purportedly the lead negotiator of Trump's trade war with China, makes clear on CNBC that there is currently zero communication happening between the administration and Chinese officials pic.twitter.com/sFyOUkiWGR — Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 5, 2025 Nasdaq The two scenario progress update. Blue pill or red ? https://t.co/jfVfPhkSne pic.twitter.com/OqLuxINpwJ — The Great …
via YSK: It could save you thousands and protect your future. On May 5, the U.S. Department of Education will commence collecting on student loans after a five-year hiatus. This is going to throw thousands of American lives into chaos, and you should know what your rights are when dealing with collection agencies. U.S. Department …
This is quite consequential. China, Japan, South Korea and the countries of ASEAN just issued a joint statement (https://asean.org/joint-statement-of-the-28th-asean3-finance-ministers-and-central-bank-governors-meeting/) in which they take a unified stance against “escalating trade protectionism”, a clear reference to Trump’s tariffs. They write that their common “policy priority” is “to reinforce long-term resilience” of the region, which given the policies …
Goldman Sachs is holding firm on its bullish GOLD outlook, with a base case of $3,700/oz by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026. If a recession hits, they expect ETF inflows could push prices up to $3,880 by year-end. In extreme tail scenarios—like rising concern over Fed… — Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) May 5, 2025 All …
President Trump’s tariffs became very real for importers last month as the government collected more than $17.4 billion in “Customs and Certain Excise Taxes” during April. That was nearly double March’s haul of $9.6 billion, dwarfing the smaller spikes in revenue seen during Trump’s first term. All told, the duties have deposited more than $70 …
Why it matters: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, and even the vaguest hint that it could dump those holdings is powerful leverage with the administration. Following through on the threat could cause interest rates to spike. Catch up quick: Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said Friday that the country’s $1.13 trillion …
The latest GDP data just dropped from the U.S., China, Europe, and Mexico… And at first glance?It doesn’t look disastrous.But under the surface — there’s a payback wave building.U.S. GDP shrank.China’s manufacturing is rolling over.Mexico barely avoided technical… — Jeffrey P. Snider (@JeffSnider_EDU) May 1, 2025
BREAKING: The US has reportedly reached out to China "recently" for tariff talks. US equities are rising on the news. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 30, 2025 CCP REPORTEDLY CONFIRMS U.S. RECENTLY INITIATED CONTACT TO REOPEN TARIFF TALKS 👀 pic.twitter.com/jwxsPa0Npb — Shay Boloor (@StockSavvyShay) April 30, 2025
MEXICO AGREES TO SEND WATER NORTH, AVOIDS TARIFFS AFTER TRUMP PRESSURE Mexico agreed to send more water to the U.S after falling behind on a decades-old deal — and things were getting tense. Texas farmers were furious, Trump froze water shipments to Tijuana, and Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum had to strike a deal fast to …
In 1975, 81% of American men under 30 were married. For women, it was 91%. Today, only 16% of men and 25% of women under 30 have a spouse. This is not a social drift. It is a free fall. A collapse that says more about the cost of living than it does about the …
BNPL: do you love it or hate it? 41% of users missed payments in the past year (LendingTree 2025), and with credit cards at 11.35% delinquency (Fed), it’s a lifeline for some, a nightmare for others. Now BNPL is being reported to credit reports. YIKES! 200K+ of you felt very… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) April …
Some people believe that the tariff disruptions will settle down as more negotiations happen and greater thought is given to how to structure them to work in a sensible way. However, I am now hearing from a large and growing number of people who are having to deal with these issues that it is already …
by Michael China is normally the largest export market for U.S. agricultural products. In a typical year, we sell tens of billions of dollars worth of agricultural products to the Chinese, but now that door has been slammed shut thanks to the extremely high tariffs that China has imposed on U.S. imports. If that door is …
Don’t forget about the urgent and pressing need to promote Music Tourism. pic.twitter.com/M2bZ6lcrWs — Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) April 28, 2025 🚨 NOW: After TWO WEEKS of being on vacation, the House is back and focusing on CONGRESSIONAL GOLD MEDALS for hockey players Not codifying DOGE cuts. Not codifying President Trump’s executive orders But MEDALS FOR …
The Silent Banking Crisis: Understanding the $482 Billion Time Bomb U.S. banks are currently sitting on $482 billion in unrealized losses on their investment securities primarily long-dated Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities bought during the 0% interest rate era. This figure has jumped 33% in just the last quarter, making it the worst paper loss environment …
by Michael Experts are telling us that the supply chain disruptions that we are facing are likely to be more severe than anything that we witnessed during the last pandemic. Anyone that believes that we can easily replace 438 billion dollars of imports from China is just being delusional. There are thousands of products that are made in …
by MonetaryCommentary This particular offshore dollar liquidity gauge, calculated as the ratio of total liabilities of foreign-related institutions in the U.S. to U.S. deposits at foreign banks, remains mired in a secular upswing, suggesting that foreign banks are still boosting their dollar liabilities in U.S. markets at a faster pace than U.S. residents are placing dollars …
S&P 500 at the Great Liberation Day Divide pic.twitter.com/mhRfSFfXyt — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) April 25, 2025 Bank Of America’s Hartnett – Sell U.S. stock rallies and buy the dip on everything else. — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) April 25, 2025 Technicians are pointing to a rare technical indicator called the "Zweig Breadth Thrust" which purportedly has …
by Michael This is a very difficult time for real estate agents and homeowners that are trying to sell their homes. As I have documented below, sales of previously-owned homes in the United States just fell to the lowest level that we have seen during the month of March since 2009. Needless to say, in …
While the whole world seems convinced the rest of it is rotating away from Treasuries, the actual evidence unequivocally shows something very different. This isn’t a one-time relationship, either. Instead, a deep fundamental basis that connects repo, interest rates foundations, global banks, and the recent deflationary developments.
China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo: China and the US not yet in talks on tariffs. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) April 24, 2025 I think from here on Stop telling lies It will benefit everyone. https://t.co/6yXuBCTQbD — The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) April 24, 2025 As predicted, China's incentive is to be uncooperative *CHINA: IF THE U.S. REALLY …
The world has changed in unimaginable ways from the time the oldest baby boomers were born in the late 1940s to the 21st-century birth dates of Gen Z. From the end of the Cold War and 9/11 to the advent of the internet and social media, the fast-changing last few decades have undoubtedly left unique …
