Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Cr4ck3r51 I’m a wholesaler in Dallas , been in business for 11 years strictly in wholesale. We supply cars to local dealers, since September we used to run 130 cars a week and now we barely running 80 , we went from selling 80% of inventory to 20%-30%. Our volume went down, we can’t …
CNN – Restaurant prices are way up. You might want to head to the supermarket. “If you’re watching your budget, it might be time to skip the drive-thru and head to the supermarket. In the 12 months through October, higher restaurant prices drove food prices above overall inflation, even as grocery prices were relatively low. …
In 2023, major financial institutions such as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Farmers Insurance, Robinhood, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo, Ally Financial, Morgan Stanley, Bank of Nova Scotia, and RBC have collectively announced layoffs, totaling more than 20,000 employees according to Forbes. These layoff announcements contribute to the ongoing struggles in the US banking sector, with bank stocks …
by bitkogan I’ve already mentioned that the market’s enthusiasm about slowing inflation could be premature. Firstly, the year-over-year CPI growth in November-December may accelerate due to the fact that it’s being measured against the low base of 2022. The result could come as an unpleasant surprise to many. Secondly, even if the Federal Reserve does …
Walmart ($WMT) experiences an 8% decline as CFO expresses concern over October trends, prompting a reevaluation of consumer health. The retail giant notes a significant sales drop in the last two weeks of October, and management remains cautious, acknowledging ongoing strain on consumers. Despite inflation easing towards 3%, the lingering impact is evident, compounding on …
As we approach the new year, a shift toward credit risk is expected, replacing interest-rate concerns, according to Mohamed El-Erian. The recent steep drop in October’s Producer Price Index (PPI), the largest since April 2020 during the Covid lockdown, heightens worries. Fitch predicts ongoing challenges for US regional banks in 2024, and with earning trends …
@KeithMcCullough warns that the recent surge in Regional Banking ($KRE) and Real Estate ($XLRE), often seen as positive, could be a bear market bounce, potentially misleading investors before a recession. Drawing parallels to the Great Financial Crisis, McCullough highlights this as outright panic buying and suggests the current crisis might surpass the GFC, impacting Main …
A potential economic downturn in the next 11 months could boost Trump’s chances. Efforts might include redefining recession and manipulating data to present a façade of control. https://twitter.com/BradHuston/status/1724878352605991045 https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1724831374673395795
As gold in Japan inches closer to another record-breaking high, the economic woes persist, with the country’s economy contracting at its most rapid annualized quarterly pace in two years during the third quarter. This juxtaposition underscores the prevailing economic challenges and the continued appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. Gold …
The signs of an impending auto loan debt crisis are becoming increasingly apparent, as noted by AutoMoBlog. Wall Street’s lucrative practice of selling car loans to individuals with limited capacity to repay is fueling concerns, mirroring practices reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Simultaneously, the rapid increase in defaults on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) is …
561 bankruptcies through October, the most since 2010 when excluding 2020 during which there were 563 bankruptcy filings through the same periodhttps://t.co/jVYwW4bxtO — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 13, 2023 It will get only worse ma’am because of this https://t.co/ihffGtS42l — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) November 13, 2023 U.S. BBB Corporate Bond Spreads hit a 43-year …
The US will need to refinance almost half of its national debt in less than 2 years. Let’s not forget that interest rates were at 0% just 15 months ago. Wait until these debt instruments need to be rolled over at 5% rates. The U.S. credit rating outlook was lowered from “stable” to “negative” this …
Credit card balances often misrepresent borrowing as they mainly indicate spending. Despite being a primary consumer payment method in the US, many pay off their full balances monthly. In 2022, credit card transactions reached $5.8 trillion, up 18% YoY due to increased spending on travel and services amid inflation. Q3 saw credit card balances rise …
Probably Nothing! 👀 pic.twitter.com/FQyWLZ01mR — The Macro Guy (@SagarSinghSetia) November 6, 2023 💶 Correlation between Eurozone’s financial conditions and Euro-area GDP. Unsustainable divergence! Suggests downside ahead for GDP, currently at 0.1% YoY, unless financial conditions ease. H/t: @SvendsenAnders #recession pic.twitter.com/9lNZjexU0i — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) November 6, 2023 Not looking so good long term! Boom – …
Corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. have surged by 30% over the past year, signaling the end of the easy money era and a sobering wake-up call for companies. Good Morning Everyone! Corporate bankruptcies in the U.S. rose by +30% over the past 12 months. "We're already on track to double the mega bankruptcies compared to …
by TonyLiberty The World Bank has issued a serious warning that oil prices and food prices could surge dramatically due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. The World Bank outlined three potential scenarios for oil supply disruptions, each with varying degrees of price increases. The worst-case scenario could see oil prices rise by as …
by thetimeisgold The World Bank is warning that oil prices could be pushed into uncharted waters if the conflict in the middle east escalates. (Info here) They said oil prices could hit $150 If oil prices rise significantly, it could drive inflation higher, which could call for echos of the 1970s. Nightmare scenario for everyone. I …
The U.S. deficit, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, is expanding at a pace twice as rapid as initially projected, primarily due to the previously undisclosed student loan debt. This trajectory points to a 2024 deficit that could surpass last year’s by a staggering $600 billion, representing a 40% surge within a single year. …
by confoundedinterest17 Bidenomics new theme song is “Addicted To Gov.” Bidenomics needs lots of Federal spending and borrowing to survive. But all this spending and borrowing is causing rapid price increases and other distortions. The US Federal government just added $600 billion in debt in ONE MONTH. And The Fed’s have borrowed $10.47 TRILLION since Covid in Q1 …
With $SPY currently standing at $4,200, the relentless upward climb of inflation is silently chipping away at purchasing power, while so-called “assets” are showing a decline. To maintain pace with inflation since 2021, when it was perceived as transitory, $SPY would need to rise to $5,480, signifying a substantial 30% increase above its current value. …
Escalating mortgage rates have made buying a home prohibitively expensive, and renting is now the more compelling option. Home buyers are backing out of deals at the highest rate in a year, per BI. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 23, 2023 The number of homeowners hit with foreclosure notices in the third quarter of the year …
Small companies employ almost 50% of all US employees Any significant impact on these businesses would have severe consequences for employment From 2024 onwards, a lot of these companies will start to have refinancing requirements as their outstanding debt comes due The big… pic.twitter.com/ikidGowail — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) October 18, 2023 Other announcements in the …
by DesmondMilesDant Caption: High-quality debt created by data provider BondCliQ. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl… Caption: This H-portfolio contains 30 bonds covering major sectors such as tech, utilities, energy and financials, and includes bonds sold by Deere Capital Corp., Lowe’s Cos Inc., AMZN etc. This is the largest, most liquid, market in the world. It is heading …
Lake City is one of the biggest manufacturers of AR-15 ammo in the US. I have a few thousand rounds of their 5.56 stashed away here. It’s all over my gun circles that they just announced a total, immediate stop to all civilians sales of AR ammo. It’s all military orders, now. Lake City is …
What’s behind the Washington, DC murder spike? The capital of the United States of America is threatening to reclaim its reputation as the nation’s murder capital, as well. According to preliminary data for 2023 from Washington, DC’s Metropolitan Police Department, a total of 214 homicides had been committed in the metropolis as of September 29, …
We told readers in late July, “Why AirBnB Owners Are About To Be Forced Property Sellers.” Then, one month later, in late August, we wrote “The AirBnB Bubble Popping Will Pop The Housing Bubble,” followed by “AirBnB Bubble Bursts: Investor Home Purchases Crash 45% In Biggest Drop Since 2008.” Airbnb owners who snapped up homes in the last several years …
The jump in various food commodity prices is not entirely due to inflation. However, rising food prices certainly are contributing to the ongoing issue. It truly is a unique time to be an investor/trader. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 5, 2023 https://t.co/sLpTGRJBZU — Win …
by confoundedinterest17 Biden’s press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that Biden was laser focused on reducing inflation. At least he isn’t laser focused on little girls … for the moment. But he still does seem laser focused on providing Ukraine with billions of dollars. After months of soaring in the face of higher mortgage rates (and …
Biden (heavily mumbling): “Mega Republicans in Congress and my predecessor spent four years gutting the immigration system under my predecessor and continue to undermine our border security today” Biden (heavily mumbling): "Mega Republicans in Congress and my predecessor spent four years gutting the immigration system under my predecessor and continue to undermine our border security …
