A hub for independent voices and hard truths
Traders looking for the next pressure point are watching the wrong screens. The story isn’t in SPY anymore. It’s in credit. Specifically, HYG, the high-yield bond ETF, which still looks calm on the surface but is sitting on thin ice. …
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1906500008058204561 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1906442966669099163 Goldman Sachs $GS has raised probability that a recession occurs in 12 months from 20% to 35%. pic.twitter.com/SgRovbBD4j — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 30, 2025 There has only been ONE TIME the NCAA Final Four had all four #1 …
https://twitter.com/mister_macro/status/1905746568416055490
Markets are hanging by a thread, and most don’t see it coming. High-yield corporate bond spreads just spiked 60 basis points in a month—hitting a six-month high. Investment-grade spreads aren’t far behind, climbing to their highest level since September. These …
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1880340616225357892 Recession ‘betting’ odds have plunged since the election pic.twitter.com/VpzZlC1AJQ — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) January 18, 2025 ‼️This is absolutely CRAZY stuff: US stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, the Dollar, housing market minus Treasuries have never been so expensive. This is …
Remember how I warned you all that after the election, we'd suddenly start getting "surprise" and "unexpected" downward revisions on all of the allegedly glowing economic numbers? 😎 Now watch corporate earnings and forward estimates revise down. — Uncle Milty’s …
Reverse repo surges $72BN to $268.7BN for year-end window dressing. Funding market spreads already had blown out to 3 month highs amid spike in repo tightness pic.twitter.com/wyBoMBEPN8 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 27, 2024 The Federal Reserve's emergency Bank Term Funding …
Corporate bankruptcies and defaults accelerating, unemployment continues to rise, and spreads blow out. Especially, after Powell said “we’ve avoided recession” and S&P Global is expecting the speculative-grade default rate to fall to 3.5% by September 2025. Moody’s pointed out… https://t.co/9tn3htvQQI …
1. The thought is the Fed could make homes more affordable by cutting interest rates So far, mortgage rates are doing opposite, and rising instead Why? Because mortgage rates move with the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has surged …
Current #eurozone spread blow-out should not be read through lens of 2012 #eurocrisis. Unlike in 2012, swap spreads of all sovereign bonds (incl. germany) are moving in same direction = rising basis for #eurozone as a whole. This pattern is …
Enjoy the final weeks of elevated equity prices and narrow credit spreads, before a reversion to the mean. Only a miracle can fix this chart. pic.twitter.com/bS0iiblkmg — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) December 2, 2024 The Monday after Thanksgiving in 2021 was …
Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but to markets position for longer recessionary period while facing #liquidity issues. Swap spreads falling to zero and strong bull steepening was last observed in 2008 #GFC. German interest rates …
Commodities are not feeling very inflationary right now. https://t.co/cS1Yveed7h pic.twitter.com/LbdPayQmSx — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 11, 2024 I'm keeping a close eye on 5 year and 10 year breakeven inflation. We saw a similar breakout in 2008 when inflation expectations were …
Federal Health officials on Friday said at least 75 people across 13 states have been sickened by the recent and deadly E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder hamburgers. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed one …
Home values are now dropping across states like Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina. As inventory levels spike and the housing downturn in Florida spreads to other states. Homebuyer demand in 2024 continues to falter, as mortgage brokers are reported a …
The last time CCC/B diverged, it was the dot-com warningHigh yield bond option-adjusted spreads, bps pic.twitter.com/sDAF8NwPHI — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 17, 2024 $NVDA insider sales… https://t.co/YEvN9BqB3t pic.twitter.com/7AlhT8f5Yz — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 16, 2024 How big the Magnificent 7 …
Spot on. Many companies are banking on Fed cuts to ease their debt burdens, but higher credit spreads could still pose a significant risk — Blue&White (@LiorBershtling) July 11, 2024 Don’t panic, that’s the Private Equity arm of $GS not …
CCC credit spreads have been on the rise. As of June 27, 2024, the ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) stands at 9.44%. This spread represents the difference in yield between US dollar-denominated corporate debt rated …
The backlash against diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives has indeed spread to more states. In at least 22 states, measures related to DEI at state university systems have been either banned or rolled back. For instance, in Utah, Republican state …
🚨Breaking News🚨 🇺🇸 California Wildfire Spreads, Forcing Evacuations in San Joaquin County. Footage Captures Devastating Impact as Evacuation Orders Extend from West of CA Aqueduct to Alameda and Stanislaus Counties." Tags: #CaliforniaWildfire #Evacuation #SanJoaquinCounty… pic.twitter.com/8t8ltm8y4k — World War 3 (@Worldwar_3_) …
With credit spreads on the rise and the 10-year TIP trading at 2.2%, financial conditions are tightening, sparking concerns among investors. While systematic funds tread cautiously amid thinning market depth, the next fortnight looms as a critical period. Contrary to …
But this outbreak has killed thousands of seabirds. It’s impacted 80 different species of birds. It has also survived through the summer, a season usually free from influenza in the Northern Hemisphere, and it jumps into mammals, an entirely new …
https://twitter.com/_/status/1769260783630750135 A mystery flesh-eating disease that kills around 30% of people who become infected is spreading rapidly around Japan. In the first two months of 2024, some 378 cases of streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS) were detected in the country. …
Maybe we could all learn something from the Amish… pic.twitter.com/1UQ20YzLIs — Marc 🇺🇸 (@gopher_marc) December 1, 2023
🚨 WARNING : The Crisis in Swap Spreads 🚨 (NOT Click-bait this is a big deal.) 1/ Have you been keeping an eye on interest rate swap spreads lately? If not, you should be! They've been quietly building and building, …
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1712426706743542265 US corporate bond spreads widen as hopes dim for soft landing Oct 4 (Reuters) – U.S. corporate bond spreads widened on Tuesday and are expected to widen further after the latest jobs data helped confirm many investors’ expectations of …
https://twitter.com/TheMattOMalley/status/1711080047744803113 https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1710011432572526844 🚨 What Bankers Are Saying About Another Possible Crisis It's all planned… https://t.co/NJ3EDVGJ0h pic.twitter.com/uvKvhyTIRO — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 6, 2023 BREAKING: U.S. Banks U.S. Bank losses on held-to-maturity assets have soared to an ALL-TIME HIGH of $400 Billion …
Indeed!! pic.twitter.com/xRpdyCblIs — Michael Lebowitz, CFA (@michaellebowitz) September 27, 2023 We can see how weak small caps have been during this Fed tightening cycle. The chart shows absolute performance. Only 1972 was worse — another cycle, like now, in which …
