Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
“What’s being proposed: The U.S. Treasury is floating the idea of buying back older debt securities. This is essentially a form of yield curve intervention a tool to inject liquidity, support market function, or steer duration risk away from the private sector. This is not QE in the traditional sense, as the Fed isn’t involved …
Is hidden funding crisis unraveling? If Trump’s announcement today of a 90-day tariff pause was truly bullish and risk-on, why did we see 10Y yields spike to 4.50%+, SOFR swap spreads collapse to -40.62, gold rip $107 intraday, junk bond yields hit 8.51%, and TLT get liquidated on record volume all while equities… pic.twitter.com/PVa9L4FA2b — …
Traders looking for the next pressure point are watching the wrong screens. The story isn’t in SPY anymore. It’s in credit. Specifically, HYG, the high-yield bond ETF, which still looks calm on the surface but is sitting on thin ice. Back in March 2020, stocks fell first. But junk bonds followed in dramatic fashion. HYG …
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1906500008058204561 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1906442966669099163 Goldman Sachs $GS has raised probability that a recession occurs in 12 months from 20% to 35%. pic.twitter.com/SgRovbBD4j — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) March 30, 2025 There has only been ONE TIME the NCAA Final Four had all four #1 top seeds. Just one time. Out of 85 occurrences. It was back in April 2008. …
https://twitter.com/mister_macro/status/1905746568416055490
Markets are hanging by a thread, and most don’t see it coming. High-yield corporate bond spreads just spiked 60 basis points in a month—hitting a six-month high. Investment-grade spreads aren’t far behind, climbing to their highest level since September. These are stress fractures in the system, warning signs that something is breaking. 🚨WARNING🚨 S&P500 2008 …
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1880340616225357892 Recession ‘betting’ odds have plunged since the election pic.twitter.com/VpzZlC1AJQ — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) January 18, 2025 ‼️This is absolutely CRAZY stuff: US stocks, high-yield corporate bonds, the Dollar, housing market minus Treasuries have never been so expensive. This is way ABOVE the 2000 Dot-Com and 2006 housing Bubbles. Is it everything bubble on steroids? …
Remember how I warned you all that after the election, we'd suddenly start getting "surprise" and "unexpected" downward revisions on all of the allegedly glowing economic numbers? 😎 Now watch corporate earnings and forward estimates revise down. — Uncle Milty’s Ghost (@his_eminence_j) December 30, 2024 PAY ATTENTION. Warning signs are EVERYWHERE. https://t.co/BiwXM5MWdj — Uncle Milty’s …
Reverse repo surges $72BN to $268.7BN for year-end window dressing. Funding market spreads already had blown out to 3 month highs amid spike in repo tightness pic.twitter.com/wyBoMBEPN8 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 27, 2024 The Federal Reserve's emergency Bank Term Funding Program dropped to $5 billion this week. It'll be $0 in January. pic.twitter.com/md8wCxDkVv — Financelot …
Corporate bankruptcies and defaults accelerating, unemployment continues to rise, and spreads blow out. Especially, after Powell said “we’ve avoided recession” and S&P Global is expecting the speculative-grade default rate to fall to 3.5% by September 2025. Moody’s pointed out… https://t.co/9tn3htvQQI pic.twitter.com/kPNU1t3OTz — WarnTracker 2.0 (@j77324) December 21, 2024 This is concerning: Non-farm payroll employment in …
1. The thought is the Fed could make homes more affordable by cutting interest rates So far, mortgage rates are doing opposite, and rising instead Why? Because mortgage rates move with the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has surged this week pic.twitter.com/zk0c3UJi9Y — Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) December 20, 2024 3. A …
Current #eurozone spread blow-out should not be read through lens of 2012 #eurocrisis. Unlike in 2012, swap spreads of all sovereign bonds (incl. germany) are moving in same direction = rising basis for #eurozone as a whole. This pattern is closer to #GFC style liquidity crisis.… pic.twitter.com/OBsziN45gx — 🏳️🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦 (@PatrickKrizan) December 3, …
Enjoy the final weeks of elevated equity prices and narrow credit spreads, before a reversion to the mean. Only a miracle can fix this chart. pic.twitter.com/bS0iiblkmg — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) December 2, 2024 The Monday after Thanksgiving in 2021 was an up day. It was the last chance to get out. pic.twitter.com/pULj8PJcRf — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) …
Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but to markets position for longer recessionary period while facing #liquidity issues. Swap spreads falling to zero and strong bull steepening was last observed in 2008 #GFC. German interest rates set alarm bells ringing. Collapse in #German Swap Spread not due to fiscal risk, but …
Commodities are not feeling very inflationary right now. https://t.co/cS1Yveed7h pic.twitter.com/LbdPayQmSx — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 11, 2024 I'm keeping a close eye on 5 year and 10 year breakeven inflation. We saw a similar breakout in 2008 when inflation expectations were the complete opposite of the real economy. https://t.co/8T6u9d8NV4 pic.twitter.com/7RTwh6ApRm — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) November 10, 2024 …
Federal Health officials on Friday said at least 75 people across 13 states have been sickened by the recent and deadly E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder hamburgers. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed one fatality linked to the outbreak, as had been previously reported. At least 22 people have …
Home values are now dropping across states like Georgia, Tennessee and South Carolina. As inventory levels spike and the housing downturn in Florida spreads to other states. Homebuyer demand in 2024 continues to falter, as mortgage brokers are reported a 45% slump in mortgage applications compared to pre-pandemic levels through mid-October. Who wants to buy …
The last time CCC/B diverged, it was the dot-com warningHigh yield bond option-adjusted spreads, bps pic.twitter.com/sDAF8NwPHI — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) July 17, 2024 $NVDA insider sales… https://t.co/YEvN9BqB3t pic.twitter.com/7AlhT8f5Yz — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) July 16, 2024 How big the Magnificent 7 has become? The Magnificent 7's market cap is higher than any non-US stock market in …
Spot on. Many companies are banking on Fed cuts to ease their debt burdens, but higher credit spreads could still pose a significant risk — Blue&White (@LiorBershtling) July 11, 2024 Don’t panic, that’s the Private Equity arm of $GS not the bank 🙅🏻♂️ Narrator: mmmmmm…. Great catch @kshaughnessy2 👏🏻 https://t.co/nb2Qudpz7X pic.twitter.com/1DZCQZ8Ifv — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) …
CCC credit spreads have been on the rise. As of June 27, 2024, the ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) stands at 9.44%. This spread represents the difference in yield between US dollar-denominated corporate debt rated CCC or below and the corresponding spot Treasury curve. The widening spread suggests increased risk …
The backlash against diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives has indeed spread to more states. In at least 22 states, measures related to DEI at state university systems have been either banned or rolled back. For instance, in Utah, Republican state Rep. Katy Hall successfully sponsored a new law that prohibits the use of DEI statements …
🚨Breaking News🚨 🇺🇸 California Wildfire Spreads, Forcing Evacuations in San Joaquin County. Footage Captures Devastating Impact as Evacuation Orders Extend from West of CA Aqueduct to Alameda and Stanislaus Counties." Tags: #CaliforniaWildfire #Evacuation #SanJoaquinCounty… pic.twitter.com/8t8ltm8y4k — World War 3 (@Worldwar_3_) June 2, 2024
With credit spreads on the rise and the 10-year TIP trading at 2.2%, financial conditions are tightening, sparking concerns among investors. While systematic funds tread cautiously amid thinning market depth, the next fortnight looms as a critical period. Contrary to expectations, inflationary fears drive Treasury yields up, leading to a plunge in stocks and a …
But this outbreak has killed thousands of seabirds. It’s impacted 80 different species of birds. It has also survived through the summer, a season usually free from influenza in the Northern Hemisphere, and it jumps into mammals, an entirely new host. h/t Mtntulip
https://twitter.com/_/status/1769260783630750135 A mystery flesh-eating disease that kills around 30% of people who become infected is spreading rapidly around Japan. In the first two months of 2024, some 378 cases of streptococcal toxic shock syndrome (STSS) were detected in the country. Last year it is believed there were 941 cases, which has caused concern that this …
Maybe we could all learn something from the Amish… pic.twitter.com/1UQ20YzLIs — Marc 🇺🇸 (@gopher_marc) December 1, 2023
🚨 WARNING : The Crisis in Swap Spreads 🚨 (NOT Click-bait this is a big deal.) 1/ Have you been keeping an eye on interest rate swap spreads lately? If not, you should be! They've been quietly building and building, and last week, they made a monumental move – the biggest… pic.twitter.com/HUWTV1TIVy — Jeffrey P. …
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1712426706743542265 US corporate bond spreads widen as hopes dim for soft landing Oct 4 (Reuters) – U.S. corporate bond spreads widened on Tuesday and are expected to widen further after the latest jobs data helped confirm many investors’ expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates and an upcoming economic downturn. High-grade bond spreads jumped two basis …
https://twitter.com/TheMattOMalley/status/1711080047744803113 https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1710011432572526844 🚨 What Bankers Are Saying About Another Possible Crisis It's all planned… https://t.co/NJ3EDVGJ0h pic.twitter.com/uvKvhyTIRO — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 6, 2023 BREAKING: U.S. Banks U.S. Bank losses on held-to-maturity assets have soared to an ALL-TIME HIGH of $400 Billion 👀 pic.twitter.com/NE16Uccu0b — Barchart (@Barchart) October 6, 2023
