Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Martin Armstrong The Japanese government is now openly admitting what I have been warning about for years. Rising interest rates are beginning to dramatically increase the government’s debt-servicing costs. For decades, Japan survived by suppressing interest rates to nearly zero while endlessly rolling over debt. That strategy only works so long as rates remain artificially low. …
Canada barrels into sovereign debt crisis hedge funds prop up half the government bonds with short term loansBank of Canada flags sudden liquidity drop triggers bond rates explosion… 40 to 50 percent of Canadian debt sits in hedge fund hands via overnight loans… This mirrors the exact setup for global debt blowups… Mortgage default nightmare …
by Martin Armstrong The United States has crossed a threshold that historically marked the beginning of sovereign debt crises for empires throughout history. According to newly released figures, U.S. debt held by the public has now surpassed 100% of GDP for the first time since World War II, reaching roughly 100.2% as public debt climbed …
On Tuesday, April 14, at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong, CEO Georges Elhedery said something on live Bloomberg television that should have detonated every energy desk on earth. It did not. Because nobody is reading what it actually means. “The highest I’ve seen, and I’m hoping we don’t see more of that, …
Anthropic’s run-rate revenue hit $30 billion, triple what it was three months ago. To keep up with demand, the company locked in 3.5 gigawatts of Google TPU capacity through Broadcom, enough to power a mid-sized city. More than 1,000 businesses now pay seven figures annually for Claude. At the end of 2025, Anthropic was generating …
Blue Owl restricting withdrawals in private credit funds tied to AI and software borrowers is not an isolated hiccup, it is liquidity behavior showing up when assets stop feeling liquid, and that is already documented in market reporting. At the same time hyperscalers are projecting roughly $175B in bond issuance in 2026 just to fund …
Infographic: Global gold demand;Global gold demand is being reshaped by shifting sovereign reserve strategies, changing investment behavior and an increasingly uncertain outlook. Infographic: Global gold demand https://t.co/KL9R4F1O48 — MINING.COM (@mining) February 5, 2026 https://www.mining.com/infographic-global-gold-demand/ Without metals and industrial elements — steel, copper, aluminum, iron ore, nickel, zinc, titanium, etc. — human civilization cannot exist. Nearly …
This isn’t really a double standard — it’s a jurisdiction problem. The U.S. government has sovereign immunity by default. You can only sue it if Congress has explicitly waived that immunity for the exact type of claim. Trump’s case fits a very narrow statutory waiver: 26 U.S.C.… — BullBrezza | Macro & Crypto (@BullBrezza) February …
By Jonny Haycock In this latest Gold Sessions, Jonny Haycock, Partner at VON GREYERZ, is joined by Alasdair Macleod to examine what may be shaping up to be a perfect storm for global markets. The discussion begins with Japan’s emerging role as a potential warning signal of wider sovereign debt stress, alongside accelerating de-dollarisation and rising geopolitical …
This is how trouble sneaks in, quietly and all at once. When every major bond market starts pushing yields higher together, it means money is getting expensive everywhere, not just somewhere. Stocks can ignore that for a while, but balance sheets cannot. By the time equities notice, the damage is already baked in. A HUGE …
USA needs to bomb the shit out of Mexico and arrest Sheinbaum for inciting riots as an act of war. — 🐶Fibonacci doesn't fib😸 (@CoherentUnity) June 11, 2025 At her Friday morning press conference, President Claudia Sheinbaum responded forcefully when asked about the possibility of the United States military bombing cartel targets on Mexican soil. …
Gold holders this weekend. pic.twitter.com/YKoPZQQhST — Parallel Mike (@parallel_mike) May 22, 2025 This $4.1 billion in buys was on Monday and they have been REKT ever since. lol https://t.co/XecPYJmCyL — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) May 22, 2025 Worse.Worsened.Worsening. https://t.co/4nEsFQVLdG pic.twitter.com/3HK1ZogNRR — The Great Martis (@great_martis) May 22, 2025 FUCK YOUR DOWNGRADES – WE’RE GONNA DOUBLE DEFICIT …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-04-24/norway-s-sovereign-wealth-fund-reports-tech-driven-loss-video https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-24/norway-1-7-trillion-wealth-fund-reports-tech-stock-driven-loss?embedded-checkout=true World’s largest sovereign wealth fund reports $40 billion loss in first quarter on tech downturn Norges Bank Investment Management — the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world — on Thursday reported a first-quarter loss of 415 billion kroner ($40 billion), citing weakness in the tech sector. “The quarter has been impacted by …
The world is facing a profound challenge as maturing bonds pile up across many countries, and the ability to roll them over becomes increasingly uncertain. This is a crisis waiting to unfold, with countries forced into positions where they cannot meet their debt obligations without slashing bond values—known as a “haircut.” A haircut occurs when …
Trump signed an executive order directing officials to create a sovereign wealth fund for the U.S. But the U.S. is $36.5 trillion in debt. Doesn't it make sense to pay that debt off first, as it's a guaranteed return? Otherwise, the sovereign wealth fund will be highly leveraged. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) February 3, 2025 …
Since US yields started rising after the Fed meeting in Sept, global bond yields are higher, while the dollar and gold are surging, reflecting an increasingly global debt contagion. While many in the US are laser focused on the US yield rise in recent weeks, what is notable is how it looks to be flowing …
The trajectory. pic.twitter.com/7x59bmBk5k — Tuomas Malinen (@mtmalinen) October 23, 2024 Why in the hell are we cutting interest rates? Honestly it’s complete insanity. The bond market hates the idea as you can see by the rising 10 year yield. Inflation is still a major problem and is not under control. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October …
Bipartisan support is growing for a US sovereign wealth fund. The Alaska Permanent Fund, which distributes money to Alaska residents annually, could be a model. Challenges include funding sources, legislative hurdles, and state-owned natural resources. Bipartisan momentum is building around a sovereign wealth fund that could help the United States reduce its national debt or …
An Edgewater police officer took a “sovereign citizen” into custody on Tuesday night after a local traffic stop went awry, according to the police department.
Investors are starting to worry France could default on its sovereign debt 🍿🍿 https://t.co/P3V8ESa9Y8 — Peter St Onge, Ph.D. (@profstonge) June 27, 2024
An important reminder that everyone and their mother is currently long the US dollar. Crowded positions are often mistaken, making a squeeze in the opposite direction highly likely. While gold and commodities can indeed rise alongside a strengthening US dollar, this is an… pic.twitter.com/i5jGeeXDVU — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 12, 2024 Deficit spending as …
Hold on tight, because the global financial landscape might be on the brink of a seismic shift! Brace yourself for a wave of emerging market sovereign defaults – yes, a wave! We’re talking about countries deciding they’re just not that into paying back their debts anymore. It’s like a financial version of ghosting, but with …
China state media removed a story that initially reported that Beijing plans to merge its largest state-owned bad debt asset managers with China Investment Corp, one of the world’s largest sovereign fund. The initial report was published Sunday by Xinhua Finance. It cited unidentified sources as saying the plan to bring China Cinda Asset Management, …
In a significant move, the European Parliament has voted in favor of the Migration Pact, a decision that diminishes the sovereignty of individual countries. This grants the EU Commission the power to enforce “mandatory migrant relocation quotas” per country, a development that raises concerns about the erosion of national independence and decision-making aligned with citizens’ …
https://t.co/3i8lURYf73 — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 4, 2023 What is going on with the US debt? There is currently no debt ceiling because former Speaker McCarthy suspended the limit until 2025 (foolishly). So Biden can borrow an unlimited amount of money. It went up $275 billion in ONE DAY. $442 billion in just two …
Peter Schiff is warning that bonds are facing a grim future, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting a high not seen since October 2007 at 4.48%. He anticipates that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will reach 8% in the coming week, and next year, the 10-year Treasury yield could exceed 6%, leading to mortgage rates nearing …
by Martin Armstrong QUESTION: What do you make of the US debt downgrade? Do you think this has anything to do with indicting Trump in three courts? I know many people decided to donate to Trump today, even for the first time, as a sign of disapproval of the Biden Administration and the RINOs. HJ ANSWER: …
by confoundedinterest17 Cry for Argentina! The people, not their government or Central Bank. Argentina has similar problems to the US in terms of the Covid outbreak in 2020. Their Central Bank went wild (as did The Federal Reserve) in terms of printing money. Argentina is still printing like mad. At 81% YoY! And inflation is growing …
By Graham Summers, MBA Trouble is brewing in the U.K. again. Back in September 2022, which now seems so long ago, the global financial system nearly entered a debt crisis. The first country to “get to the brink” was the United Kingdom or U.K. At that time, the U.K.’s new government, led by Prime Minster Liz Truss, …
