Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Shiller PE Ratio hits 2nd highest level of all-time, only slightly behind the Dot Com Bubble 🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/Se55FZmnbZ — Barchart (@Barchart) May 1, 2026 Classic capex binge That white combined line getting absolutely devoured by the shark while the red S&P keeps ripping higher is textbook divergence. 2026 looks spicy. TA eyes on this one …
🇮🇷🇺🇸 "This was a BETRAYAL OF DIPLOMACY. We were attacked 2 times within a span of 9 months when we were in the middle of a negotiating process to resolve the nuclear issue." —Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Baghaei "So no one can trust the US diplomacy." — concludes https://t.co/zxInhNQwb8 pic.twitter.com/BHbjyUZZih — Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) March …
Inflation is a silent tax—and the most painful way to finance government promises. Your representatives may finally grab the feared “third rail” of U.S. politics. When the Social Security and Medicare trust funds run out in the early 2030s, the law is clear: Benefits must be slashed. That would mean a roughly 24 percent cut …
Jerome Powell on the housing market: – “The housing market faces some really significant challenges and I don’t know that a 25-basis point decline in the Federal Funds Rate is going to make much of a difference for people.” – “Housing supply is low, many people have very, very low-rate mortgages from the pandemic period.” …
April to June 2008: There was a brief dip in expectations as some believed the worst might have passed and markets slightly stabilized. — Citizen Watch Report (@Citizenwatchrep) May 13, 2025 Once again, the #recession never came. Economists and markets spent much of the past year bracing for a downturn—citing rate #hikes, inverted #yield curves, …
84% of newly built and sold homes as of 2022 were all part of an HOA or Homeowners Association. This is a worrying trend because a lot of homebuyers don’t want to be a part of an HOA and many people who live in one now want to escape it. But these communities are ruining …
by Mike Shedlock The McKelvey-PMES recession indicator dipped a bit in September but the signal still implies recession. 100 percent of the time, with no false positives or negatives, under current conditions, the economy has been in recession. The odds are not 100 percent because the NBER sets recession dates, not these charts. What is …
U.S. crude oil futures were slightly lower Sunday as traders breathed a sigh of relief after Israel fended off a large-scale air assault by Iran and the U.S. emphasized it wants to avoid a wider war in the Middle East. The West Texas Intermediate contract for May lost 34 cents to $85.32 a barrel as …
With many of former President Trump’s tax cuts due to expire next year, taxpayers may be wondering if there’s anything they should be doing now to prepare. Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) increased the standard deduction, lowered the corporate and estate tax rates and increased the child tax credit, among other things. …
by confoundedinterest17 We are closing out the first week of the New Year and 30-year conforming mortgage rates are up slighlty. Mortgage rate GROWTH is now at 8% year-over-year (YoY). While M2 Money growth has died and is down -3% YoY. Bank credit growth has been negative since July 2023 and M2 Money growth has …
Largest X2.8 Just shot a M7 BOOM https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux Add to it an earth-facing coronal hole This is likely one of the largest solar radio events ever recorded. Radio communication interference with aircraft were reported by multiple NWS Center Weather Service Units (CWSU) co-located at FAA facilities. See https://t.co/U2jmmJNjJV for full story. pic.twitter.com/tAiLovhCUw — NOAA Space …
by confoundedinterest17 President Biden reminds me of Cousin Eddie, the dimwitted cousin of Clark Griswold’s wife in the Vacation movies. Except that Cousin Eddie is a nice dimwit while Biden is a nasty dimwit. And politcal stooge. Given that turkey prices are up 321% under Biden, the famous Thanksgiving line “Save the neck for me, Clark” is …
by Writemeaticket Red Economy is in the shitter and FUBAR. Been working since 8 years old (paper route, mowing lawns), had a job in HS. Worked to put myself through college. Aside from layoffs, I’ve always worked, saved money, 401k, etc., etc. Retired last Dec thinking I’ll make it 1.5 more years to 62, then …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/Survey/business_leaders/2023/2023_08blsreport.pdf Wages and Prices expected to continue rising over the next 6 months. TLDRS: New York Federal Reserve Bank’s August 2023 Business Leaders Survey shows the region’s (New York, southern New Jersey, and southwestern Connecticut) service sector activity as stable for the second month in a row. Remember, services are where ~2/3 of …