Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Not since the early weeks of the pandemic have Americans been this certain that unemployment will spike. Consumers surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in March put a 44% probability on the nation’s jobless rate being higher a year later, marking the highest level since April 2020. The New York Fed’s latest …
$DXY has now plunged more than 8% year-to-date, its worst start to the year since 1995. Got silver? Got gold? byu/Boo_Randy_II inWallstreetsilver
Gold is now up 1000% since the year 2000. The S&P 500 has returned 485%. pic.twitter.com/zGNvZeLHda — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) April 14, 2025 BREAKING: Global net gold purchases by central banks hit 24 tonnes in February, the most since November 2024. This marks the 20th month of net buying over the last …
Lionsgate has started production on “Day Drinker,” sharing a first-look image at Johnny Depp as he makes his return to Hollywood following high-profile legal battles with ex-wife Amber Heard. The film from “500 Days of Summer” and “Snow White” director Marc Webb re-teams Depp and PenĂ©lope Cruz for a fourth time after previous collaborations on …
This is one of the clearest signals yet that the Bank of Japan has lost control of the long end of the curve. Japan’s 30-year yield hitting 2.845% its highest since 2004 isn’t just a local event. This has global knock-on effects: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S.… https://t.co/nQ0bTI4toI — EndGame Macro (@onechancefreedm) …
BREAKING: US financial conditions are now their tightest since the 2020 pandemic, per ZeroHedge. Financial conditions are even tighter than during one of the most rapid Fed hike cycles of all time, in 2022. Conditions have tightened rapidly as stocks have pulled back, while… pic.twitter.com/d53KqrwU4D — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 14, 2025 Is this …
The inflation-adjusted yield on 30-year Treasuries hit the highest level since 2008 last week, at 2.7%. pic.twitter.com/gDjLYv7RNh — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) April 13, 2025 the dollar is fine they said.. yeah investors keep dumping debt and the dollar like a 3rd world country. pic.twitter.com/4odlHpSQBz — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) April 14, 2025
Source :Â https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
WARREN BUFFETT'S TRACK RECORD Compound Annual Gain (1965-2024):– Buffett: +19.9%– S&P 500: +10.4% Total Overall Gain (1964-2024):– Buffett: +5,502,284– S&P 500: +39,054% pic.twitter.com/sQSvxsfrG5 — Evan (@StockMKTNewz) April 13, 2025
What caused all these things to skyrocket since 1990? byu/Admirable_Health_533 inconspiracy
US stocks turned higher on Friday to cap a chaotic week on Wall Street, as investors weighed the latest tariff-related developments in the trade war between the US and China. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.8% after seesawing earlier in the session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 2.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) …
The Nasdaq just had its best day since 2001. It’s the index’s 2nd best day in HISTORY byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts The $VIX fell 36% today, the biggest volatility crash in history. byu/betsharks0 inWallStreetbetsELITE
Sorry folks, but even after today’s flip-flop, we’re still looking at the bigliest tariffs since the 1930s. pic.twitter.com/AZa9egjraK — Peter Berezin (@PeterBerezinBCA) April 9, 2025 Let me get this straight, every other country said they were willing to negotiate with Trump and reduce their tariffs to ZERO, so Trump put those negotiations on hold. Then …
OPEN THE BOOKS — Federal agencies have spent $4.6 Billion on furniture since 2021, despite most employees working from home.pic.twitter.com/54Kla1cD97 — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) April 9, 2025
BREAKING: More Winning. Oil Prices Drop To Lowest Level Since 2021 In a stunning win for America First policies, oil prices have crashed to their lowest since 2021, with crude tanking to $65.50 a barrel today, proving President Trump’s energy dominance is back in full force.… pic.twitter.com/fjNfC2Fta4 — MAGA Resource (@MAGAResource) April 4, 2025
by confoundedinterest17 The mortgage market got its mind set on a recovery, but Biden’s mindless economic policies have jammed up the mortgage market. Example? Mortgage applications are down in a season where they typically increase. Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications …
Some blame technology. Others point to the economy. But the real shift started when COVID turned socializing into a health risk. Lockdowns forced people indoors, breaking routines that never fully returned. Some never relearned how to engage. Others simply stopped trying. Now, millions go days without real interaction, and it’s becoming the new normal. The …
by Mike Shedlock Let’s do a fact check on Trump’s Canada claims. In addition, the US has a huge services surplus with Canada driven by sectors like technology, financial services, and intellectual property licensing from companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. I do not have year-by-year services numbers. Grok AI notes “Estimates from earlier …
by confoundedinterest17 Wow! Gold just had its best quarterly performance since the 1980s! Meanwhile, the volatility of gold ETFs remains subdued.
We are in a recession! ⚠️This is HUGE: 1.2 MILLION people lost full-time jobs in the US in February, the 2nd-highest reading since the 2020 CRISIS. This comes after January upward revision of 2.4 million due to historic population adjustment. Is the US job market cracking?👇https://t.co/3owdJozuXU — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) April 1, 2025 🚨US …
by confoundedinterest17 Housing and rental properties are simply unaffordable. Freddie Mac Serious Delinquency Rate on Multifamily (Apartment) loans soared to highest rate since 2000. Since it is as of January 31, 2025, you can’t blame this on Donald Trump (although I am sure they will try). Of course, home prices and rents soared under Biden. Home …
Reversing a 75-year trend of lower tariff rates, Team Trump’s tariffs are expected to take tariff rates to 8.4% this year, the highest since 1948 byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
Russia has ordered the largest increase in conscription since the Ukraine war began as a further 160,000 servicemen are called up to the frontline. The planned draft size has increased from 150,000 in 2024 and 134,500 in 2022, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. It comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russia to …
Downward #earnings revisions have been outpacing upward revisions. As you know,we have been stating for quite a while that #estimates were way to high and would have to adjust lower for #economic realities.H/T @sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/rzDVOxozSy — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) March 31, 2025 BofA says trend followers have been ramping up US equity "SHORTS" ahead of …
BREAKING: Gold prices officially surge above $3,150/oz for the first time in history. pic.twitter.com/bPOF4P1GSg — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 31, 2025 Gold has officially crossed a major threshold, pushing above $3,150 per ounce for the first time in history. This surge comes as investors flock to the most historically reliable store of value known …
The market no longer believes the Fed: Since the "Fed pivot" began in September 2024, market-based inflation expectations have more than DOUBLED. In fact, markets now see +3.3% inflation over the next 2 years, the highest since March 2023. Has the Fed lost its credibility? https://t.co/cNVD32IqbR pic.twitter.com/KWjK2LekQM — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 29, 2025
by Michael Have you ever not been able to sleep at night because you are stressed out about your finances?  If so, you are certainly not alone.  When there is simply not enough money coming in to pay all the bills, the pressure can be excruciating.  The cost of food, housing and other essentials has been …
Japanese 10-Year Bond Yield jumps to highest level since the Global Financial Crisis byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1905008623799177521
