Excluding Oil, the US Has a Trade Surplus with Canada Every Year Since 2008

by Mike Shedlock

Let’s do a fact check on Trump’s Canada claims.

In addition, the US has a huge services surplus with Canada driven by sectors like technology, financial services, and intellectual property licensing from companies such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon.

I do not have year-by-year services numbers. Grok AI notes “Estimates from earlier years and commentary suggest the services surplus could be in the range of $25–30 billion USD annually.”

Spotlight Canada

Census Department Balance of Trade Data, Chart by Mish

The Imbalance with Canada

Looking at all this data, I just don’t know how Canada can treat us this poorly.

For more details, please see Trump Postpones “Liberation Day” to Focus on the “Dirty 15”

Damn. I was all geared up for liberation.

Reciprocal Tariffs

Reader: “Tariffs are reciprocal. All Canada has to do is to lower the tariffs they charge the US to what they want the US to charge them.”

Me: USMCA IS reciprocal right now. In extremely minor instances where it isn’t, TRUMP negotiated the deal.

Please read over and over Cheese Was a “Key Achievement” of Trump’s USMCA Trade Agreement

The above post contains over a dozen instances in which Trump bragged what a great deal.

It was such a great deal that Trump thanked Mexico and Canada. Notably USMCA is “Good for everybody – Farmers, Manufacturers, Energy, Unions – tremendous support. Importantly, we will finally end our Country’s worst Trade Deal, NAFTA!”

Good deal or not (and I think it was a very good deal for the US), the fact of the matter is Trump has no legitimate right to unilaterally break a deal ratified by the Senate 89-10.

The additional pertinent fact is Trump just proclaimed to the world that he may not honor any deal, even those he signs.

At some point there is a cost to this lack of trust.