Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Something about this feels familiar. Not in the details, but in the tone. The warnings are starting to sound like they did before 2008. Quiet. Technical. Polite. But the words are the same. “Insurers shopping for better ratings on their private credit assets are creating a “looming systemic risk” to global finance, the chair of …
Job openings are falling. Unemployment is flat.We’ve seen this movie before. The 2020–2025 labor market setup is starting to rhyme with 2007, when JOLTS rolled over quietly, and the unemployment rate held steady… until it didn’t. Not a perfect correlation yet, but one H2… pic.twitter.com/lCiYvZUDqL — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) July 8, 2025
Picture 2008 again. The fear on screens. The system breaking. Now pause. The difference today is quieter and darker. The collapse arrives in data points, not alarms. Start with labor. The working‑age population between 25 and 54 is now shrinking in absolute terms. That means fewer workers, fewer new households, fewer buyers. Without a growing …
‘Japan’s Top Life Insurer Says Unrealized Bond Losses Tripled.’ This Bloomberg headline sounds familiar, right? Back in March 2023, several US regional banks, including Silicon Valley Bank and later First Republic Bank, collapsed when ‘unrealized losses’ became realized losses as people got their money out. Did the system collapse? NO! Why? Because the Federal Reserve …
President Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the United States of America, will deliver remarks at a Rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, on Saturday, May 11, 2024, at 5:00 p.m. EDT. h/t DestinyAKA-Des
The specter of the 2008 housing crisis is haunting 2024, echoing familiar themes of manipulated interest rates and speculative asset mania. The belief that “prices only go up” has fueled a dangerous déjà vu, reminiscent of the days preceding the previous crash. As rates rise, home sales volumes collapse, and builders resort to offering incentives …