Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Stocks fell sharply on Friday with the S&P 500 headed for its worst session in roughly two years, as a much weaker-than-anticipated jobs report for July ignited worries that the economy could be falling into a recession. The broad market index dropped 2.1%, on pace for its biggest one-day sell-off since 2022, while the Nasdaq …
Our media is knowingly playing a part in this shameful con. They know that none of the data being reported by the FBI is accurate. The media could use other sources but they don’t want to know the truth, at least not before the election. 2020 was an outlier. Some crimes were way up, especially …
by confoundedinterest17 What’s it going to be? Mortgage rate increases or balance sheet (MBS) reductions? Since the Covid outbreak in early 2020, The Fed went wild with rate cuts and massive and unpredented balance sheet expansion. Let’s look at The Fed’s puchase of agency MBS and mortgage rates. From 2020 2022, The Fed continued to buy …
by confoundedinterest17 Cacklenomics strikes again! The University of Michigan consumer survey revealed that buying conditions for housing just hit an all-time low. High house prices and high mortgage rates aren’t helping. Purchase loan demand keeps dropping.
Prior to the pandemic, less than 2% of callers were asking for utility assistance, but in the last year that percentage has grown to 8.2%, according to Eden I&R data. Oakland made up 40% of the calls to 211, with Black and Latino individuals and single parents making up the majority of the callers. Female …
The Fed could slash rates by 200 points over 8 straight meetings as the economy heads for a sharper downtrend, Citi, $C, has said. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 15, 2024 FED'S GOOLSBEE: INTEREST-RATE CUTS ARE SOON WARRANTED – WSJ. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) July 15, 2024 NY Fed: manufacturing remains in contraction yet again for July …
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Friday issued another warning about inflation despite recent signs of easing in price pressures. “There has been some progress bringing inflation down, but there are still multiple inflationary forces in front of us: large fiscal deficits, infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade and remilitarization of the world,” Dimon said in …
Spot on. Many companies are banking on Fed cuts to ease their debt burdens, but higher credit spreads could still pose a significant risk — Blue&White (@LiorBershtling) July 11, 2024 Don’t panic, that’s the Private Equity arm of $GS not the bank 🙅🏻♂️ Narrator: mmmmmm…. Great catch @kshaughnessy2 👏🏻 https://t.co/nb2Qudpz7X pic.twitter.com/1DZCQZ8Ifv — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) …
IS THE US LABOR MARKET STRONG? Nothing could be further from the truth Number of unemployed Americans for 27 weeks & over SKYROCKETED by 36% year-over-year in June This is 6th straight month of increased Every time it jumped so much in the past, a recession in the US occurred pic.twitter.com/RDOcOvSNZu — Global Markets Investor …
by confoundedinterest17 MMT is mostly magic! The Federal Reserve relies on “The Power of Magic” to fool people. For example, the massive increase in money printing following Covid and Biden’s disastrous economic policies (or FOLLICIES). Modern monetary theory (MMT) is not convincing to most trained economists of various schools of thought. This causes many to balk at MMT and mock it, …
🚨 Here's a wild stat: June 2024 marked the first time in 44 months that no global central bank hiked interest rates. A global easing cycle is upon us. Prepare accordingly. pic.twitter.com/JBpogzFxzb — Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) July 8, 2024 Funny enough, markets tend to rally ahead of rate cuts, and then correct lower once the …
by confoundedinterest17 Housing in the US is simply unaffordable. Particularly since home prices and mortgage rates have soared under Biden. .Owning a house is less affordable for average earners in the US than at anytime in 17 years. The costs of a typical home — including mortgage payments, property insurance and taxes — consumed 35.1% of the …
by herbanoutfitter 2009 was bad but this time around it won’t just be mortgages—EVERYTHING is overleveraged. Consumer loans including credit cards, mortgages, car loans, small business loans, corporate loans, private credit instruments. When interest rates were low, that worked fine. Decent returns for low volatility. But now inflation is still not at target and higher …
The financial landscape is in turmoil: credit card interest rates have surged to an unprecedented 21.47%, while credit card debt has crossed the $1 trillion mark. Personal interest payments have climbed to over $500 billion, signaling a looming consumer crisis. With excess savings depleted, the consumer’s financial health is more vulnerable than ever. Inflation remains …
by confoundedinterest17 In politics, it is usually discussed whether you are better off today than 4 years ago. Well, not if you are a renter or need to buy a home with mortgage financing. If you are a homeowner, you are better off in terms of home equty. With the Case-Shiller National home price index …
by confoundedinterest17 I can’t wait to get back where we started from. In terms of the economy. And the CRE office market is showing disaster. San Francisco office market availability rates have soared in Q1 2024 to over 35%, up from less than 10% in Q1 2019. Welcome to The Streets of San Franciso!
The narrative is changing? BofA: The market is now more concerned about growth than rates pic.twitter.com/VcF11jM6Ko — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 17, 2024 This month, US households' real income expectations hit the lowest levels in over a decade. pic.twitter.com/dqk9as12aY — (((The Daily Shot))) (@SoberLook) June 17, 2024
Central banks around the world are now starting to cut interest rates. With the Bank of Canada and the ECB being the first two central banks to cut. Does that mean that the Federal Reserve might be next?
An important reminder that everyone and their mother is currently long the US dollar. Crowded positions are often mistaken, making a squeeze in the opposite direction highly likely. While gold and commodities can indeed rise alongside a strengthening US dollar, this is an… pic.twitter.com/i5jGeeXDVU — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) June 12, 2024 Deficit spending as …
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its key interest rate unchanged and signaled that just one cut is expected before the end of the year. The Federal Open Market Committee also indicated that it believes the long-run interest rate is higher than previously indicated. “In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the …
Endless spending and low interest rates resulted in 40-year high inflation. Now, over half of American adults believe we are in a recession. Even with endless deficit spending, consumer sentiment is horrible. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) June 10, 2024 Food Costs are soaring to …
Policymakers at the Fed are starting to question if they are being restrictive enough with interest rates at 5%. Rate hikes are definitely back in the debate. No one knows what the neutral rate is now for interest rates. Rate cuts are off the table. At least for now. pic.twitter.com/DBOmIsBmIN — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) June …
Canadian banks are indeed bracing for a “mortgage renewal cliff.” As mortgage renewals approach for over three-quarters of homeowners, Canada’s Big Six banks are adding billions of dollars to their emergency funds. The spike in mortgage payments that many homeowners will face during renewal is known as the “mortgage cliff.” Mortgage rates are significantly higher …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-06-06/real-estate-investors-face-crisis-as-big-wall-street-deals-unravel Syndicators made big purchases that are unraveling with high interest rates, adding distress to an already troubled US property market. Nathe started following a wealth influencer named Mir Jafer Ali Joffrey, who went by the nickname “Buck.” He had an earlier career as a cosmetic surgeon, with a Chicago-area clinic that offered liposuction and …
Asmall group of Americans who took out cheaper but riskier mortgages several years ago are about to see their monthly payments skyrocket. Since 2019, more than 1.7 million homes have been bought using adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), which initially offer a lower, more affordable interest rate than their fixed-rate counterparts. But eventually, ARMs reset to …
https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1798703003391980014 The European Central Bank (ECB) recently made a decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Specifically, the main interest rate was reduced to 3.75%, while the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending facility rates were also adjusted. B/c the two are related… https://t.co/5GohABBJJj — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) June 6, 2024 …
The over-7% mortgage rates seem to have become a fixture in the housing market. The average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 7.07% in the latest week, and has now been above 7% since early April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. During Rate-Cut-Mania, the average mortgage rate had dropped to 6.76% …
