Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Cutting rates will be looked back on as a regrettable error. 1970s all over again, only 10² worse. pic.twitter.com/IoztkAs4WV — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 7, 2024 It's probably nothin.$VIX tremors pic.twitter.com/WxqHi9FYBL — The Great Martis (@great_martis) October 7, 2024 JUST IN 🚨: 10-Year Treasury Yield jumps to 4% for the first time in 2 …
But all the real estate agents said when rates fell there would be bidding wars? It's almost like they have no clue how home values work https://t.co/0vtQG3IERK — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 2, 2024 What's chances these never get completed.and people run with the money https://t.co/BLUZd7obOz — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) October 2, 2024 📢 Brampton …
The Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate cut in more than four years yesterday. It was a declaration of victory over once hot, hot, hot inflation. And mortgage rates responded by fluctuating in kind of a weird way. The average 30-year fixed weekly rate dropped from 6.2% to 6.09% and the daily rate rose …
It’s the economy not rates that drive housing. No buyers despite lower rates https://t.co/0L1fac8UrK — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 26, 2024 🇺🇸 US consumer confidence present situation 9-month change. In #recession territory! Chart: @MikaelSarwe pic.twitter.com/H54kkPIfbm — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) September 26, 2024
Linkhttps://t.co/n3ZINVlAIO pic.twitter.com/uS5D68XwGm — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) September 25, 2024 This is why the recent 50 bps drop and not 25. The Fed is aware, I wager, that the employment stituation is far worse than the official numbers are telling us. pic.twitter.com/pAbdkYW3Rs — 💯Robert C. Baker💯 (@RCBakerBuilt) September 25, 2024 🚨THE LEADING TO LAGGING ECONOMIC INDICATORS …
Applications to refinance a home loan surged 20% last week compared with the previous week. This as the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.13% from 6.15% The refinance share of applications rose to 55.7%. Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose just 1% …
Global fertility rates have dropped significantly over the past several decades, raising critical questions about the future of populations worldwide. In 1963, the average global fertility rate was around 5.3 children per woman. By 2021, this figure had decreased to approximately 2.3 children per woman, marking a staggering decline of about 3.0 children over roughly …
The Federal Reserve recently announced their first interest rate cut in four years. The official explanation is that they want to encourage job growth. But how will this interest rate cut affect the average American family? From Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group You may have heard the recent news that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by …
https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836734007062470665 US 30 Yr minus the 3-month pic.twitter.com/f1UqwiYV2Z — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) September 19, 2024 https://twitter.com/RJRCapital/status/1836735432463102043 hedge funds starting to hedge with short bonds ETFs Macro furus long bonds in shambles — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) September 19, 2024 Cuts ✂️ & Returns 📉 📈 pic.twitter.com/x4wS2qdlNp — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 19, 2024
by confoundedinterest17 If this isn’t election interference, I don’t know what is. The Fed today slashed interest rates by the biggest amount in 16 YEARS, a whopping 50 basis points from 5.50% to 5.00%. With the economy roaring along (thanks to Covid-related massive Federal spending), there was no good reason to slash rates. Other than …
There’s a reason why the big boys have been selling and holding cash. The market may not correct right away but when it bottoms it will take years to recover. The difficulty will be determining when the bottom is in. — JettBlast (@JettBlast00) September 18, 2024 8/ The Fed cuts rates in response to economic …
Interest rates came down over Euro area so FED likely to follow next week whereas as bank of japan remains hawkish on interest rates. ECB: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/12/live-updates-european-central-bank-interest-rate-september.html FED: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-inflation-declined-more-august-123959854.html BoJ: https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bojs-tamura-calls-raising-rates-least-1-2024-09-12/ h/t Infamous_Sympathy_91
It’s the phenomenon that’s baffled doctors around the world: bowel cancer, usually a disease of the elderly, has soared by 50 per cent in 20, 30 and 40-somethings over the past 30 years. Now, in a fascinating discussion between two of the world’s leading cancer experts, a new theory as to the explanation behind the …
C&I lending slowed down in tandem with residential lending during the 01′ Recession and Great Recession and didn’t recover for years. They’re connected/correlated markets. https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/commercial-lending-has-almost-completely-recovered-from-the-great-recession-and-faster-than-after-2001-recession/ h/t Mrbumboleh
The Fed is now playing with fire: Cut interest rates = Asset bubbles form Keep rates same = Severe recession unfolds This is a policy mistake in the making pic.twitter.com/873iqKepEN — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 9, 2024 The equity market rally may stall near record highs even if the Federal Reserve starts a highly anticipated …
90% of US cities saw a rise in year over year unemployment rates in July, according to the BLS. pic.twitter.com/RBvcLcyOOC — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) September 3, 2024 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 90% of US cities experienced a rise in year-over-year unemployment rates in July. Specifically, jobless rates increased in 350 out of 389 …
JUSTI N: A record number of buyers backed out of purchase deals in July due to high costs and economic worries, per Redfin. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) August 30, 2024 Buyers’ Strike Deepens: Pending Home Sales Drop to Record Low Despite Surging Supply & Much Lower Mortgage Rates that Already Price in Massive Rate Cuts Pending …
Allstate Corp. is set to increase home insurance rates for California customers by an average of 34.1%, marking the biggest jump in premiums for a major insurer in three years as the state faces a deepening property insurance crisis. The rate hike, which will take effect from November, will impact about 350,000 policyholders across California. …
“As soon as mortgage rates drop demand is gonna SURGE.” I think it’s time to face facts kiddos, most of the “pent up demand” was just investors who have moved on to greener pastures. Buyers aren’t waiting for lower rates, they’re waiting for lower prices. Mortgage Rates Hit 17-Month Lows, But ‘Homebuyers Are Staying Patient’ …
This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Birch Gold Group In 2022 there was considerable debate among alternative economists what the Federal Reserve was likely to do in the face of rising stagflation. There were people who argued that the Fed would capitulate to stock market demands, stop raising interest rates and …
🤣🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/G4rm6fl3jc — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 21, 2024 So the BLS prelim benchmark revision is -818k (in line with our 800k forecast). But the 1Q QCEW county data implies a bigger revision of -958k. To put this in context, the typical revision is 0.1% of payrolls…the past year was 0.5%, 5x as large. — …
by confoundedinterest17 After watching the Democrat hate fest last night (Aka, the Democrat National Convention), I was not shocked that the DNC platform looked like a playbook to destroy the US economy. High taxes, endless spending, more regulations, etc. Not a word about the staggering side of the US debt load … with Harris’ economic plan …
Financial volatility. Recession conditions. Lower growth and inflation. The rate cuts are still coming. So, that means interest rates around the world are about to go…UP? The fundamentals haven’t changed – the calendar has. AC
They will fake the economic data just like they did during Weimar Germany, and you won't know you are in a recession or a depression until you are waiting in the bread lines. It's called "political arithmetic" and it's always used during periods of monetary debasement and rampant… pic.twitter.com/7hgKSCF8QD — TheRoadtoWiganPier (@RoadtoWiganPier) August 17, 2024
by Mike Shedlock I suggest the latter. The market expectation is the former. Let’s discuss the case for a half-point. Image from CME Fedwatch, annotations by Mish. Market Expectation for September There is currently a 43.5 percent chance of a 50 basis point cut in September. The odds were 53.0 percent yesterday and 69.0 percent …
by Dismal-Jellyfish TLDRS: Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.4 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit (credit cards) increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent. Nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent. Consumer Credit …
Redfin CEO’s shocking mortgage rate comment. Related: Airbnb down 25% in a month; CEO Chesky deletes “buy” post That's illegal of course. Real estate hasn't had their correction yet in many areas. — floridanow1 (@floridanow1) August 8, 2024 Chink in the housing market armor? The share of listings w/ price drops just broke 7%, …
by confoundedinterest17 The slowing US economy has a silver lining: Treasury and mortgage rates are declining. And the is spurring faster mortgage prepayments. Mortgage applications increased 6.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending August 2, 2024. The Market Composite Index, …
Not only did existing home sales continue to collapse with lower interest rates, they're now collapsing FASTER pic.twitter.com/qSIq8XSrTQ — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 7, 2024 US Mortgage Rates Tumble to 6.55% in Biggest Drop in Two Years
Democrats on Friday urged the nation’s central bank to cut interest rates now as the unemployment rate surged. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.3 percent and employers added 114,000 workers to their payrolls in July, a significant miss from economists’ 180,000 expected jobs estimate. As Breitbart News Economics Editor John Carney noted, the significant jump in …