Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
What have we learned from the market this Fall? There are 2 paths forward for Real Estate and both are painful: 1. Higher rates, stagnant market, layoffs, prices grind flat or down 2. Lower rates that come when the economy collapses, not because the Fed waves a magic wand — Amy Nixon (@texasrunnerDFW) December 20, …
by Mike Shedlock Based on Fed economic projections, it should not have cut interest rates today. Lead image is from today’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from today’s FOMC meeting. Key SEP Projections PCE inflation for 2024: 2.4 percent up from 2.3 percent. PCE inflation for 2025: 2.5 percent up from 2.1 percent. Core PCE inflation for …
NEW: Donald Trump says there is “something wrong” with autism rates in America and promises a full investigation into what’s causing it. “We’re going to look into why the autism rate is so much higher than it was 20, 25, 30 years ago. I mean, it’s like it’s 100 times higher. There’s something wrong, and …
Enjoy your rate cut this week. There might not be another one for a long time. pic.twitter.com/Z04lWsu2Tn — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 16, 2024 This is what “sticky” inflation looks like. pic.twitter.com/zcKIeq34a2 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) December 16, 2024 Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose about a quarter of a percentage point last week, the biggest …
This happens in Canada too! — Mothersilverape (@mothersilverape) December 15, 2024 https://twitter.com/j77324/status/1868113104136986809 https://twitter.com/dailyjobcuts/status/1867920697030578185 The labor market continues to weaken, hard to see a rebound in positive momentum at maximum employment. Employment to pop ratio is finally declining, however. pic.twitter.com/jRvCxKqDYI — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 15, 2024 pic.twitter.com/cWReoeN4c2 — Captain Frans Banninck Cocq (@Pricetheory101) December 14, …
Today's hotter-than-expected #inflation data, following similar news yesterday, is putting more downward pressure on #gold. But gold will soar when investors realize the Fed will keep cutting rates despite inflation, and return to QE, sending both inflation and gold much higher. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 13, 2024 Agricultural commodities have surged nearly 30% year-over-year, …
We know many fast food restaurants have been losing customers due to extreme pricing of the poor quality food but on top of losing customers there also losing employees in California due to the new $20 per hour minimum wage mandate. So far just in less than one year already 6100 jobs have been lost …
One of our most legendary @MacroEdgeRes calls to date was our global employment forecast for Canada from March of 2023. — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) December 10, 2024 Canada is in a silent depression. 🤫🇨🇦 Pay attention to all the clues. 👇🏽 pic.twitter.com/LfpreO8ZnI — EconomicWoes 🤖 (@ManyBeenRinsed) September 14, 2024 Imagine dropping 1.8M on a house …
by confoundedinterest17 CMBS delinquencies are on the rise. The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The ascent is the fastest two-year increase on record, with rates climbing 8.8 percentage points since late 2022, …
MicroStrategy has acquired 55,500 BTC for ~$5.4 billion at ~$97,862 per #bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 35.2% QTD and 59.3% YTD. It's now been four weeks since $MSTR announced its three-year plan to spend $42 billion buying #Bitcoin. MSTR has already spent $10 billion. At this rate, the three-year plan will be completed …
Told you… so many times… 😓 But no worries, #BOJ cannot afford to turn off the $JPY printer as you can see from the next line… https://t.co/onTdK9C5S9 pic.twitter.com/C96vRVxxsI — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) November 18, 2024 Someone should really tell the #BOJ that continuing to bluff about hiking rates so trading algorithms bid the $JPY is …
Kamala Harris running her team like a military camp? No wonder there's a 92% turnover rate. Forcing staff to say 'Good Morning, General' every day? Sounds like a power trip to me. Leadership isn't about fear and control; it's about respect — John (@johnEiid) July 31, 2024
Kamala Harris once said a "70% to 80% tax rate" and saying "every car should be eliminated in the next 11 years" are "bold ideas that should be discussed" 🥴 pic.twitter.com/ATHOuLLk78 — RNC Research (@RNCResearch) July 23, 2024 Reminder: Kamala Harris endorses universal healthcare and Medicare-for-all for illegal immigrants. There are b1 billion poor people …
CCC credit spreads have been on the rise. As of June 27, 2024, the ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS) stands at 9.44%. This spread represents the difference in yield between US dollar-denominated corporate debt rated CCC or below and the corresponding spot Treasury curve. The widening spread suggests increased risk …
https://twitter.com/Carnage4Life/status/1808686814741606665
An empty 16-story office building at 995 Market Street in San Francisco recently sold for a mere $6.5 million. This price represents a staggering 90% plunge from its 2016 value of $62 million. The building, which was once home to Burning Man headquarters and later occupied by WeWork, has faced significant challenges in the city’s struggling office market. With a vacancy rate of …
WARNING: Default rate on consumer loans have now hit the highest level in a decade Such aggressive rises have systematically ended in recessions since 1987 At this rate, history is about to repeat again pic.twitter.com/59wW22Rq5e — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) June 4, 2024 US Job openings year-over-year change has been negative for over 2 years. In …
California has the loosest labor market in the country – started discussing the unemployment dynamic here back in August of 2023. Now has highest unemployment rate and 6% fewer job postings than pre-Feb 2020. Unemployment is rising in 10 largest counties. UR moving opposite… pic.twitter.com/m2MmviTeME — Don Johnson (@DonMiami3) May 9, 2024
Here we go again: BREAKING: Bird flu has infected a dairy herd in Ohio for the first time and was detected in additional herds in Kansas and New Mexico, according to the U.S. government, expanding an outbreak in cows that has raised concerns about possible risks to humans. – Reuters pic.twitter.com/WnoOo4Yy8F — Insider Paper (@TheInsiderPaper) …
by Chris Black As per the Tweet below, China’s fertility rate is currently 0.88 children per woman. This is LOWER than South Korea AND UKRAINE!! Leaked figures suggest that the birthrate in China dropped 18% in 2023. It stood at 0.88 births per woman in 2023 compared to 1.07 in 2022. Via @MoreBirths pic.twitter.com/zt9DKXUNs9 — …
by confoundedinterest17 Nobody manipulates markets like The Federal Reserve! Nobody but The Fed. Here we sit with core inflation rate BELOW the current Fed Funds Target Rate (upper bound). So is it time to start withdrawing its more than ample monetary stimulus. Like the Bank Term Funding Program. The Federal Reserve is likely to retire the …
Banks are pocketing real money by borrowing money from the Fed's newest backstop facility, which charges a lower rate, and then parking it at another unit of the Fed, which pays higher interest. Banks are borrowing record amounts from this new facility. https://t.co/0Yt4STWbb9 pic.twitter.com/UYElYhjQxa — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) December 22, 2023 via Bloomberg: Banks borrowed …
by Chris Black Some 560 children were killed in 18 months in Russia’s war with Ukraine whereas 8,000 children have been killed in just two and a half months in Israel’s war with Gaza. Russia’s war is killing an average of 31 children a month, whereas Israel’s war is killing an average of 3,200 children …
561 bankruptcies through October, the most since 2010 when excluding 2020 during which there were 563 bankruptcy filings through the same periodhttps://t.co/jVYwW4bxtO — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) November 13, 2023 It will get only worse ma’am because of this https://t.co/ihffGtS42l — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) November 13, 2023 U.S. BBB Corporate Bond Spreads hit a 43-year …
by Chris Black This is an absolute catastrophe. Ireland is a small country. The Irish are being wiped out in their own homeland, and this is happening without much of a peep. Gript: Over 40% of the population increase in the Irish state since 2005 has been the consequence of net migration of people born …
I sense that the market is currently stagnant, and we’re on the edge, anticipating a series of negative events. Banks and other lenders are likely to grapple with extensive non-performing loan portfolios. It’s time to brace ourselves for what’s coming. Source: https://cre.moodysanalytics.com/insights/cre-news/ma-cre-office-loan-maturity-monitor-office-borrowers-still-struggling-for-takeouts-also-time-to-worry-about-multifamily/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RP9HHlc30MU&t=118s h/t guardimus
With burgeoning credit card debt, soaring interest payments, and rates not seen since the Financial Crisis, a breaking point looms closer. The consumer is on thin ice as US personal savings rate has collapsed This indicator has dropped from record highs in 2020 to levels last seen during the Financial Crisis To make things worse, …
The situation is getting serious as banks are experiencing one of the sharpest declines in lending activity ever recorded. This means they’re not lending money as readily as before. At this rate, we might be heading towards a “credit event,” which essentially means a big problem in the world of credit and lending. Moreover, banks …
