Rate hike coming, how soon?
What’s 220% debt to GDP between friends? pic.twitter.com/X1bib2HHmn — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) March 28, 2025
rate
Investors flock to gold as stagflation risks rise, with no quick Fed rate cuts
🇺🇸 GOLD CLIMBS AS STAGFLATION FEARS RETURN US consumer confidence just hit a four-year low, and markets are starting to panic. With inflation expectations rising and real yields falling, investors are rushing into gold—pushing it above $3,018. Fed officials admit goods… https://t.co/B4ffcDfY7p pic.twitter.com/TJR1XlmXAj — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) March 26, 2025
Fed Interest Rate Cuts in June and September? That’s What the Market Thinks
via Mike Shedlock Let’s investigate Fed Fund Futures and rate cut expectations. The above chart is adapted from May and June CME Fedwatch Futures. The next Fed meeting is on May 7. As of March 23, the market thinks there is only a 22.1 percent chance of a single quarter-point cut. But if we further out …
Stagflation on top of bear market…. Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan sees NO Fed rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 due to the stickiness of inflation and tariffs.
Model me this: Dario expects full reciprocal tariffs to bump CPI to estimated +1.3% pts – about the same negative hit to GDP. Stagflation on top of bear market. So now tell me: Why are markets a buy here? https://t.co/2pRSGdxYRH — Samantha LaDuc (@SamanthaLaDuc) March 19, 2025 Breaking CNBC: Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan …
U.S. auto loan rejections hit highest rate in over a decade
Survey: Nearly half of Americans anticipate tougher credit approval process by 2026 Americans view the economic climate as getting harder, with an increasing count thinking they’ll be rejected if they apply for a credit card, mortgage or car loan, the New York Federal Reserve said Monday. The share of respondents that expect it to be …
Rate cuts often send stocks crashing
RATE CUTS can (often do) send stock markets plunging. The biggest stock market plunge in recent times was associated with rate cuts. BITCOIN & CRYPTO track stock markets… pic.twitter.com/ZMrWdDXGge — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) March 17, 2025 When stocks crash in response to rate cuts, expect Bitcoin to follow. The truth is, rate cuts might seem like …
State Farm exec fired over jaw-dropping comments about LA wildfire rate hikes, victims in secret recording.
State Farm executive has been fired after he was secretly recorded alleging that the insurance company hiked rates for California homeowners reeling from the devastating Los Angeles wildfires. Haden Kirkpatrick, State Farm’s vice president for innovation and venture capital, thought he was on a Tinder date when he started talking about his company’s California subsidiary …
U.S. fertility rate drops to historic low while immigration gets framed as the quick fix
The latest U.S. fertility numbers are hard to ignore. At 1.62 children per woman, the U.S. fertility rate is now at its lowest point in history, a dramatic drop of 22% since 1990. It’s well below the 2.1 replacement rate that demographers argue is necessary to sustain population levels. The implications of this drop can’t …
Fed’s Bowman: More progress on inflation is needed before further rate cuts
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that while monetary policy “is now in a good place,” she wants to see data reflect more progress on inflation before cutting interest rates further. “I would like to gain greater confidence that progress in lowering inflation will continue as we consider making further adjustments to the …
Actual unemployment rate at time of the elections was (probably still is) 23.7%
Take, as a particularly egregious example, what is perhaps the most widely reported economic indicator: unemployment. Known to experts as the U-3, the number misleads in several ways. First, it counts as employed the millions of people who are unwillingly under-employed — that is, people who, for example, work only a few hours each week …
Bank Of England Cuts Bank Rate To 4.5%
The Monetary Policy Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 to reduce #BankRate to 4.5%. Find out more in our #MonetaryPolicyReport https://t.co/alETrQ281L pic.twitter.com/Vuo5G6m1H8 — Bank of England (@bankofengland) February 6, 2025
78,000 California condo owners to see major insurance rate hike
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/78-000-california-condo-owners-to-see-major-insurance-rate-hike/ar-AA1ycRiX Starting in April, Allstate will raise its average rates for condo insurance by 30%, according to a filing with the California Department of Insurance. Allstate’s approximately 78,000 condo insurance customers in the state can expect to see their rates change at the first renewal date following April 1, the filing shows. Some may see their rates …
5-year breakeven rate just surged to its highest level in nearly 2 years.
"Tariffs are not inflationary" 5-year breakeven rate just surged to its highest level in nearly 2 years. pic.twitter.com/J6KIAhpiY1 — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) February 3, 2025 Trump is upset that Europeans aren't buying enough U.S. products. But Americans aren't buying enough U.S. products either; that's why we had a record $1.2 trillion trade deficit in …
If the market is about to dip, it would align perfectly with today’s interest rate decision.
I'm still fascinated by this setup I've discovered. It's been unfolding perfectly, and I'm eager to see the next move. If the market is about to dip, it would align perfectly with today's interest rate decision. Not the most robust setup, but definitely an interesting one. 👀 https://t.co/p0VQYYkrM5 pic.twitter.com/PHLmCmq5S9 — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) January 29, …
BOJ’s rate hike raises the cost of almost everything around the world.
https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1884047245156171889 Breakdown of how the Bank of Japan’s rate hike impacts costs globally, especially due to the yen carry trade: Global asset markets Investors who borrowed yen to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets may reduce exposure or sell assets to cover higher borrowing costs. This could lead to declining stock prices, reduced demand for riskier …
Dow futures have already tumbled 400 points today. Renewed inflation fears means no Fed rate cut this week.
Stock futures were down sharply on Monday on concern about an artificial intelligence stock bubble popping because of the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek that possibly made a competitive AI model for a fraction of the cost. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 430 points, or 1%, while S&P futures shed 2.3%. …
Trump’s hilarious response to question about Federal Reserve. Full story on interest rate pressure from Trump.
HILARIOUS RESPONSE FROM TRUMP ON FEDERAL RESERVE.pic.twitter.com/M3s7Oz4D4X — Citizen Free Press (@CitizenFreePres) January 24, 2025 President Donald Trump lobbed his first volley at the Federal Reserve, saying Thursday that he will apply pressure to bring down interest rates. Speaking via video to an assembly of global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, …
FedWatch Probability of Rate Hike/Cut
by Euro347 https://en.macromicro.me/collections/4238/us-federal/77/probability-fed-rate-hike My guess is J Powell states tariffs will cause inflation on goods and services in next weeks press conference, Trump opposes Powell. PCE will be al little hot, same as in Europe then Next Saturday, Feb 1st Tariffs are announced. 0% chance of a cut, probably not what anyone wants to hear. …
The quits rate for construction and manufacturing has fallen sharply
A high quits rate means employees are confident quitting because they believe finding a new, better-paying job will be easy. 2/ — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 22, 2025 At EPB Research, we focus on the quits rate in construction and manufacturing — the two key swing factors in the labor market.https://t.co/unsbPbt8Za 4/ pic.twitter.com/b2ANDBYBlL — Eric …
BOJ MOVING TOWARDS RATE HIKE AT THIS WEEK’S MEETING: KYODO
The BOJ is stuck in a vicious cycle: – Ultra-low rates fuel the yen carry trade.– Rising global rates drive yen depreciation.– Depreciation forces intervention, depleting reserves. How long can Japan sustain this balancing act before the market breaks it? — Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance) January 21, 2025 The JGB-US Treasuries spread is nearing a critical …
Gold 1-Month Lease Rate Surges To Highest in Decades
Gold 1-Month Lease Rate Surges To Highest in Decades pic.twitter.com/QmTCoHKMk1 — Jan Nieuwenhuijs (@JanGold_) January 20, 2025 Gold is bullish once again, new ATH this week pic.twitter.com/AXCf2SAhbD — Tim Hack (@realTimHack) January 20, 2025 In today's speech, Trump declared that the "golden age of America begins right now." Notice he invoked gold, not Bitcoin. The …
Consumer Prices Soared Over 21% Under Biden (Producer Prices Rose At Triple The Rate Under Biden Than They Did Under Trump) Worst Start To A Fiscal Year EVER!
by confoundedinterest17 This is the worst start to a fiscal year EVER: – Spending is up 10.9% – Receipts are down 2.2% – FYTD deficit up 39.4% at $711 billion They’re handing Trump a ticking time bomb! Speaking of Biden handing a ticking time bomb (according to Zero Hedge), after rising for 5 straight months, …
The Easy Credit, High Interest Rate Swindle
Authored by Charles Hugh-Smith via oftwominds, When 21% interest rate credit cards are the only thing keeping the lid on awakening and revolt, that’s not a sustainable fix. The easy credit, high interest rate swindle has been a financial feature of the landscape for so long it’s rarely examined for what it is: not just a …
Central banks pulled liquidity, and Apollo sees a 40% chance of rate hikes next year. Commodity prices are surging, with the CRB Index hitting its highest level in 14 years
Central banks have just engineered the worst crisis we've ever seen and now it's ready to go. By pulling the liquidity rug away they've set the stage for another crisis, all that's needed is the trigger/narrative. https://t.co/2RhyVZhH5c pic.twitter.com/tas2TgrN22 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) January 6, 2025 There goes the 10 year yield, climbing its way into the …
Japan’s 3% obesity rate highlights the power of real, unprocessed food.
Take a look. pic.twitter.com/5TdiFkZKV0 — WHO? (@soursillypickle) January 5, 2025
The first time in history when 1% of rate cuts raised 10Y yields by 1%. What will happen in 2025 and beyond?
$7.6 trillion of 🇺🇸 U.S. treasury debt must be rolled over in 2025. People are calling this the "U.S. debt wall."pic.twitter.com/IpJPt5usXj https://t.co/NW8w8gndX9 — Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) December 27, 2024 h/t TonyLiberty
Inflation Still Raging! 30Y Mortgage Rate Rose 141% Under Biden/Harris
by confoundedinterest17 Inflation soared under Biden/Harris, primarily due to their outrageous wasteful government spending. US government spening soared with Covid and politicians enjoyed the unbridled spending. Let’s see if Trump and Republicans can do any better.
The Brave New World? Job Finding Rate Collapses As Philly Fed Business Conditions Plummet
by confoundedinterest17 It is a brave new world as the US attempts an Argentina-like shift from an over-regulated, corrupt economy to a more free economy. While Argentina has Javier Milei, the US is stuck with greedy Democrats and RINOs and their bloated spending sinking any attempt to cut wasteful spending. So as we transition from woefully …
The combination of the Fed’s rate cuts and a drop in RRP usage could set the stage for liquidity strains, potentially leading to another repo crisis similar to what happened in 2019.
As expected, RRPs are down again, now below $100 billion as Fed's rate cut has reduced incentive to park liquidity at this facility; we'll be seeing repurchase agreements ramping up in the New Year and then the '19 repo crisis may repeat: https://t.co/lboowxcZmU pic.twitter.com/8S4dLXHCjb — E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 20, 2024
Fed rate cuts fail to lower 30-year mortgage rates, likely worsening. Credit spreads widened before and after the Fed meeting, reaching stress level. Cattle ignoring bonds.
1. The thought is the Fed could make homes more affordable by cutting interest rates So far, mortgage rates are doing opposite, and rising instead Why? Because mortgage rates move with the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which has surged this week pic.twitter.com/zk0c3UJi9Y — Michael Burry Stock Tracker ♟ (@burrytracker) December 20, 2024 3. A …