Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
BREAKING: The Bank of Japan’s total assets fell -$98 billion in Q1 2026, to $4.14 trillion, the lowest since Q2 2020. Since the Q1 2024 peak, the BoJ has reduced its balance sheet by -$590 billion, or -12.6%. Japanese government bond holdings fell -$84 billion in Q1, the largest quarterly decline since QT began. This …
The right time to sell a stock is when EPS has peaked. Or will peak. $nvda pic.twitter.com/F0J5G4Srdq — tic toc (@TicTocTick) March 18, 2026
by Michael A worst-case scenario could be just weeks away. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially paralyzed by the war with Iran, and there is a lot of speculation that the Houthis could soon bring commercial traffic through the Red Sea to a screeching halt. If such a scenario actually materializes, it …
BREAKING: A record 104.3 million Americans are now “outside” of the labor force. These are individuals who are neither employed nor actively looking for work, including retirees, students, stay-at-home parents, and discouraged workers. This exceeds the 2020 pandemic peak by 600,000 when nearly the entire economy was shut down. Since the 2008 Financial Crisis, the …
by Michael We live in a lowest common denominator society. For the last several decades, virtually every major institution in our society has become less civilized, and that is because our entire population has become less civilized. 20 years ago, a film entitled “Idiocracy” was released. It was about an average American that was selected for “a …
BREAKING: MicroStrategy stock, $MSTR, is now officially down -80% since its November 2024 peak. Michael Saylor's Bitcoin position is now down -$6.5 BILLION. https://t.co/M7q4bIZdl4 pic.twitter.com/0PoADw1hBV — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) February 5, 2026 MSTR is sitting on an $8.8 billion unrealized loss byu/Independent-Cress382 inwallstreetbets People waking up to the fact that $BTC is nothing more …
“December alone accounted for nearly 20% of the entire annual decline. At the same time, sales remain below 2019 levels despite population growth, while new listings are near multi-year highs even in December. That combination usually means prices haven’t finished adjusting yet.” h/t Key_Brief_8138
Stocks now outweigh the money supply by three to one, which only works as long as liquidity keeps pretending it’s infinite. When cash tightens even a little, there’s nothing underneath that valuation but hope. That's when people want to be in the world reserve currency but even that has its limits…. And we are about …
Everyone’s ignoring cheap defensives again and history warns this won’t end well. This is INSANE: OpenAI is paying $1.5 MILLION per employee in stock-based compensation to 4,000 workers. This is ~46% of the firm’s projected 2025 revenue. This is 34x higher than the avg employee at major tech companies before they went public. 👇https://t.co/MysjOVDWbj — …
When the Fed cuts rates while $SPY is trading near all-time highs (within 1%), the market usually falls sharply 2–3 months later. That aligns closely with our model’s prediction of a serious correction beginning in February 2026. Every time rate cuts begin near market peaks, the aftermath has been very bad. Historically, the pattern is …
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth. The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate …
by confoundedinterest17 There was a rush from the northeast US to Florida, now we are seeing a reversal in home prices. Punta Gorda FL, a suburb of Ft Myers, leads the nation with a -20.4% decline from its peak. Austin TX is second at -17.3% from peak. And Fort Myers FL is third at -15.0% …
Text translation: BITCOIN EXTENDS LOSSES TO $95K AFTER CLOSING BELOW $100K FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 190 DAYS BITCOIN ESTENDE PERDAS PARA $95K APÓS FECHAR ABAIXO DOS $100K PELA PRIMEIRA VEZ EM 190 DIAS pic.twitter.com/8fG6sxUZKu — Felipe Demartini (@namcios) November 14, 2025 It’s toast. The XRP people were totally right about buttcoin being useless and …
I have said multiple times, that we would see EUPHORIA at the peak of the Bubble Top. This is an example of that – and it is going to get worse – as BTC soars into the last massive top. But …. this kind of talk – is EXACTLY what you hear into massive tops. …
Household savings collapsed from a 32% pandemic peak to near 3%, leaving consumption far more exposed to wages and credit. byu/MonetaryCommentary inEconomyCharts The U.S. personal saving rate hovered around 7% during the 2010-2020 period, as households maintained a steady buffer of disposable income. But the sudden shock of Covid‑19 and accompanying shutdowns sent the rate …
Wild: https://t.co/rhpOQmII7T — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) October 17, 2025
Markets ripping higher into a shutdown isn’t strength … it’s proof the S&P 500 no longer trades on fundamentals. Liquidity, passive flows, and option mechanics have replaced cash flow and earnings. This isn’t history being made, it’s price discovery being euthanized. Markets ripping higher into a shutdown isn’t strength … it’s proof the S&P 500 …
🚨BREAKING New report: poverty and food insecurity in Canada jumps FORTY percent since 2023 …some Canadians are going FULL DAYS without eating. The solutions? All taxpayer funded! Communism is coming. pic.twitter.com/Vmqn2PhAJV — Tablesalt 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@Tablesalt13) September 17, 2025 Canada Real Estate Insanity A Hamilton home purchased in 2021 just sold for a 52% loss. 2009 …
Cancel culture has now spread like a pandemic through the highest levels of society, but it looks about to get a lot meaner and more intrusive into your very livelihood and family security. by David Haggith I only have to look back to the Biden years to remember when Republicans/conservatives were united against “cancel culture,” …
Total disconnect with what’s going on a consumer level. Restaurants did terrible in the summer. I expect many closings next year. Those that were making money will survive and those that aren’t will close. — PANDITO (@pandittto88) September 16, 2025 U.S. Margin Debt jumps to $1.02 Trillion, a new all-time high 🤯👀 pic.twitter.com/3wtNr5tXRT — Barchart …
Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicts that Bitcoin could crash, while gold rises and oil falls, as he believes markets are in a dangerous bubble that will burst with major volatility coming in the final months of 2025.
Chamath’s SPAC is back. Again. “American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp.” just raised $250 million. No warrants. No rights. Only speculative heat. Founder shares vest only if the stock price jumps 50 percent. That is not discipline. That is bait. https://www.newswire.lk/2025/08/19/chamath-palihapitiya-launches-new-spac-targeting-ai-and-energy/ Sam Altman’s warning barely registers. “Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are …
Nearly 40% of Russell 2000 companies are losing money, bringing back memories of the worst days of the 2008 crisis. This shows there is serious trouble brewing beneath the surface. By the second quarter of 2025, 42% of these firms reported negative earnings, way up from 14% twenty years ago. But it’s not just about …
UPS just finished the full Covid rollercoaster. From pandemic lows to stimulus highs and then right back down. The stock has plunged 52% from its 2022 peak. It now trades at all-time lows compared to FedEx. The dividend is nearly 8 percent. That is not a bargain. It is a flashing red warning. UPS cut …
Bank of America just dropped a massive warning that U.S. growth stocks hover in a bubble bigger than the dot‑com crash. A recent note shows about 37 % of the S&P 500 is tied up in ten firms alone, near the highest level ever recorded and edging into record territory. The average P/E for those top names clocks …
January 2021 peak warns of correction. This is the second most overbought the Nasdaq has been on volume momentum (lower pane) in the past 35 years. The first of course being January 2021. Note that with each peak in volume momentum, the large cap momentum stocks came back to the 200 dma. At minimum. pic.twitter.com/XRSPC0Rx6V …
SPX historically drops 2% after similar signals since 2011 According to BofA's Michael Hartnett, #sell #signals have been triggered.– BofA FMS Cash Rule: cash as % AUM in FMS 3.9%. = sell signal…average SPX loss in following most from 15 "sell" signals since 2011 = 2%;– BofA Global Breadth Rule: 64% of MSCI ACWI equity …
I don't know if we'll ever get this type of correction, but this support line would represent a -90% peak-to-trough correction if it ever happens. pic.twitter.com/oGnwqwjCRZ — Curtis (@curtis90335) May 30, 2025 https://coastaljournal.substack.com/p/the-hunger-games-of-inflation?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=18thb9&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
BTC/M2 is exhibiting a pattern similar to 2021, indicating the possibility of a rally through August, followed by a significant top. pic.twitter.com/t23WXeJmTv — Guilherme Tavares (@i3_invest) May 2, 2025 S&P 500 may not have bottomed warns Goldman Sachs 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/O2ETYoGk5Z — Barchart (@Barchart) May 2, 2025
