Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Investors expect perfect growth forever and punish any miss. Retail feels real pain from tired consumers. Levi shows the warning signs for whole sector. More misses coming as spending tightens. Market punishes any slowdown even when numbers look okay. Shares drop almost 5 percent after report. Company beats analyst earnings estimates. Full year guidance raised …
by Michael The constant drumbeat of terror attacks is rising in intensity, and the next major incident could literally occur at any moment. It might happen in a really big city, or it might happen in a very small town. It might happen on the other side of the planet, or it might happen right …
When the Fed cuts rates while $SPY is trading near all-time highs (within 1%), the market usually falls sharply 2–3 months later. That aligns closely with our model’s prediction of a serious correction beginning in February 2026. Every time rate cuts begin near market peaks, the aftermath has been very bad. Historically, the pattern is …
MetaMicrosoftNVIDIAGoogle As the formations near completion, extra vigilance is required. The next couple of weeks will be telling. Hope this helps. pic.twitter.com/lswIGwTgoc — The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 3, 2025 Microsoft is laying off 4% of its workforce mostly in gaming division. Candy Crush team is hit the hardest with 10% of workers fired. Most …
$SPY people believe that the 2007 Great Financial Crash was a large surprise (below) But it was anything but a surprise. The moving averages were textbook. Clear tests of support, followed by a rejection from below twice and then Lehmans collapsed. What sometimes clouds… pic.twitter.com/2LaGy1a0z3 — The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) April 2, 2025 Tech and …
Yield erosion accelerates. Dow jones breaches 3 months trend line Nasdaq Double top . Semiconductors Down 13% from A/T high. Gold forewarning. Cattle misdirected with hope and bullish narrative. DXY up 5% from low. The $VIX forewarning. God bless and Godspeed. Yield erosion accelerates.Dow jones breaches 3 months trend lineNasdaq Double top .Semiconductors Down 13% …
No one can say how much #JPY carry has contributed to recent US equity market slump. However, for 25y strong changes in JPY funding market (swap spread) have always coincided with strong US equity market corrections (monthly <-15%). Conditions are reunited again today. pic.twitter.com/0QIJcbLHXf — 🏳️🌈 Patrick Krizan 🇺🇦 (@PatrickKrizan) August 5, 2024 https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1820439147909177692
Chart for future history books pic.twitter.com/uHb3DSTgRX — Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) March 8, 2024 In the intricate dance of financial markets, certain patterns emerge as echoes of the past, and the current landscape seems to be no exception. The prevailing narrative of economic optimism faces scrutiny as key indicators suggest a departure from the rosy …
Recent indicators suggest a potential shift as M2 money supply contracts sharply. While inflation has been the norm in recent years, notable declines in asset prices, such as a 25% drop in used car prices and a 50% decrease in egg prices in 2023, raise questions about deflation risks. Examining historical patterns, instances of deflation …
by mrmrmrj Need republicans to win I like that solid red line.
The prospect of the Fed concluding its tightening raises questions about an imminent stock market boom, yet historical trends offer no definitive answers. Analyzing the S&P 500’s performance after past Fed peaks reveals a mixed picture, with the market experiencing both falls and rallies. The outcome hinges on the potential occurrence of a recession and …
The market’s recovery, reminiscent of historical patterns like the Nifty Fifty era, raises concerns about the sustainability of the current narrow leadership dominated by a select few mega-cap stocks. This market recovery has been unusual, with very narrow leadership, but it's not the first time. The early 1970s and late 1990s both were dominated by …
The crucial choice lies in deciding whether it occurs in the economy or manifests as inflation in the currency. For those with knowledge of market history, these headlines are a strong indicator.. pic.twitter.com/m2ZuHoptah — The Trout Lord (@thekitchentwit) November 15, 2023
via YAHOO: (Bloomberg) — US consumers, particularly those with lower incomes, are running into financial trouble as pandemic savings disappear, a headwind for lenders ranging from banks to asset-backed securities investors. The credit outlook is expected to deteriorate later this year when almost 27 million borrowers have to resume making payments on student loans. Delinquencies …