Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
i feel better now — steph pomboy (@spomboy) August 29, 2024 A debt crisis always leads to a currency crisis, bringing inflation, asset and debt implosion, political and geopolitical instability, social unrest, and even wars. We're closer to this risk than ever. — Egon von Greyerz (@GoldSwitzerland) August 29, 2024
"M&A activity across the US and Canada slowed in the second quarter of 2024 to the lowest level since the early days of the pandemic, owing to relatively high interest rates and financing challenges."@SPGlobal pic.twitter.com/Vd9ervi16o — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) July 17, 2024 There are 33 MILLION small businesses in the US, 44% of GDP. They …
JPMorgan Chase chief global market strategist and co-head of global research, Marko Kolanovic, reportedly said last week in a mid-year outlook that the S&P 500 will drop almost 23% from 5,483 on June 27 to 4,200 by the end of 2024 amid an economic slump and headwinds like downward earnings revisions. US real gross domestic product increased …
What’s happening now is a troubling shift in the job market. Job openings are being filled as new entrants join the labor force and displaced workers find new positions. However, these job openings are not being replenished, leading to an uptick in the unemployment rate. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to find work, and unless the …
1) Austin's housing market is a cautionary tale about what can happen in "boomtowns". Everyone moves in. The prices surge. Builders start pulling too many permits. And then, sooner than you know, the market flips. And inventory gets dumped onto the market as demand and prices… — Nick Gerli (@nickgerli1) May 24, 2024 2) You …
Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) stock plunged about 20% in intraday trading after the company provided lower-than-expected guidance for the current quarter. E-commerce giant Shopify (SHOP) issued guidance below forecasts, signaling a slowdown in sales growth and continued effects from the sale of its logistics business last year. The renowned retail platform expects revenue growth in the high …
Amazon shares rose in extended trading on Tuesday after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings. Here’s how the company did: Earnings per share: 98 cents vs. 83 cents expected by LSEG Revenue: $143.3 billion vs. $142.5 billion expected by LSEG Wall Street is also watching several other numbers in the report: Amazon Web Services: …
The intricate dance between economic indicators unveils a sobering reality: as US government debt skyrockets, Gold emerges as a beacon of stability, outperforming Bonds in a landscape of uncertainty. With national gasoline prices surging past $3.70 per gallon amid persistent inflationary pressures, concerns deepen over the prospect of breaching the $4.00 mark for the first …
As economic indicators flash warning signs, the Sahm Rule and Goldman Sachs McKelvey indicator converge to declare the onset of recession since October 23, 2023. With employment outlooks turning bleak, early business surveys hint at a downturn in both manufacturing and services sectors for April, casting a shadow over the trajectory of the economy. Amidst …
The best way to get investors to stop focusing on something is to stop telling them at all. Netflix said Thursday it will no longer report quarterly membership numbers and average revenue per membership starting in the first quarter of 2025. This is a significant change for the company and for the so-called “streaming wars,” …
US stocks are priced for perfection in an “imperfect and dangerous” world, Jeremy Grantham said. Grantham’s worries include overseas wars and weakness, unaffordable housing, and climate damage. The top investor said AI could be bigger than the internet but the initial bubble would likely pop. Stocks are dangerously overvalued and poised to disappoint, the AI bubble is …
via Mike Shedlock As the inflation, deflation, disinflation debate rages, with Fed rate cuts in the balance, let’s discuss some of the forces in play. The above image is from a Tweet that inspired this post. Biden's 'McFlation' 👇 https://t.co/pTkizG9rLT — Sean Hannity 🇺🇸 (@seanhannity) February 2, 2024 Leo Terrell comments ‘McFlation’: $7 Egg McMuffin At …
Concerns rise as critical commentaries on China’s struggling economy vanish from the internet, indicating increased censorship. Chinese authorities, including top intelligence agencies, emphasize promoting a positive economic outlook amid challenges. Censorship targets negative financial analysis, with warnings against “denigrating China’s economy.” Crackdown extends to renowned economists, analysts, and media coverage on financial struggles and poor …
As the earnings season unfolds, the SPX’s first-quarter and year-ahead earnings projections are on a downward spiral. Earnings surprises are meager at +6.1%, marking 2023’s weakest performance. With a grim earnings growth of about -2%, the initial expectations of +2% have crumbled. Over 20% of the S&P 500 has reported lackluster results, raising concerns about …
The atmosphere surrounding Chinese assets is getting gloomier, extending beyond the realm of battered stocks. Investors are now expressing skepticism not just about stocks but also anticipating underperformance in the yuan and government bonds. Ken Cheung, the chief Asian currency strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong, reflects this sentiment, stating, “We expect the …
Morgan Stanley has downgraded its outlook for the US dollar citing declining Treasury yields after the US Federal Reserve signaled interest rate cuts in 2024. The bank cut its outlook for the US currency to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Bullish’. However, it noted that seasonality and short positioning could potentially still drive further upside, Bloomberg News reported. …
Earnings estimates for #sp500 $spx in 2024 have been flat and have not improved. The entire rally has been based on multiple expansion. Earnings typically trend with inflation expectations. It's not a better fundamental outlook. In fact, GDPNow sees 1.3% real growth in 4Q and… pic.twitter.com/oMAYwROXpC — Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) December 7, 2023 The …
The Moody’s announcement, meanwhile, put a spotlight on China’s debt issues. While the agency retained a long-term rating of A1 on the nation’s sovereign bonds, it cited the usage of fiscal stimulus to support debt-laden local governments and the spiraling property downturn as risks. The pushback from China generally followed a theme: Moody’s just doesn’t …
In 2023, major financial institutions such as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Farmers Insurance, Robinhood, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo, Ally Financial, Morgan Stanley, Bank of Nova Scotia, and RBC have collectively announced layoffs, totaling more than 20,000 employees according to Forbes. These layoff announcements contribute to the ongoing struggles in the US banking sector, with bank stocks …
Moody’s Investors Service has revised the rating outlook to negative for Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, citing concerns about the U.S. government’s potentially weaker capacity to support systemically important banks. Despite the negative outlook, bank stocks rallied following subdued inflation data. Moody’s maintained a stable rating for Citigroup’s debt amidst these developments. …
NYT: Moody’s Changes U.S. Credit Outlook to ‘Negative’ Moody’s reaffirmed America’s credit rating at the highest AAA level but expressed concern about the nation’s fiscal trajectory amid congressional dysfunction. https://twitter.com/_/status/1723093232295231929 Yesterday, the US government tried to borrow $24 billion by selling a bunch of 30 year debt. It was a huge disaster. In order to …
The only thing Biden & Co. can do is come up with catch-phrases. – Americans SUFFER with #inflation and a coming #recession. – HUGE layoffs around the corner as job loss numbers increase.-Staggering figures reveal 1.2 MILLION US-born workers lost their jobs last month. They… pic.twitter.com/lDTw7Ejkiz — Kurt Schemers (@KurtSchemers) October 26, 2023 We …
https://t.co/d3Re50lF6H — DerFinanzNinja (@derfinanzninja) October 2, 2023 via FT: The World Bank has cut its forecast for China’s growth next year and warned that east Asia’s developing economies are set to expand at one of the lowest rates in five decades, as US protectionism and rising levels of debt pose an economic drag. The gloomier …
RATINGS agency Moody’s on Thursday (Sep 21) revised its outlook on four Chinese real estate firms to “negative” from “stable”, as the country’s property sector reels from mounting debt. The agency’s action comes just a week after it revised the outlook on the country’s crisis-hit property sector to “negative”, citing growth-related challenges. The outlook change …
Scary Halloween in markets? 🎃 👻 “Consumer confidence fell more than expected in August, while delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, according to data from the Apollo Group…Payments on approximately $1.1 trillion of federal student loans will resume in October, potentially setting consumers up for a “payment …
via theorganicprepper: Right on the heels of seeing a downgrade of the creditworthiness of the United States itself, Moody’s has downgraded ten small to medium banks across the country, citing “financial strain” and “strains that could erode their profitability.” Six more banks are under review, and another eleven have been shifted from “stable” to negative. …
Bidenomics: Small Business Outlook Remains Dismal For 19th Straight Month The Biden White House has been struggling to get the American public to buy into its positive spin on the economy, which it has dubbed Bidenomics. On Tuesday, a survey of small businesses indicated why that is such a hard sell. Small business owners have …
by confoundedinterest17 Its not always sunny in Philadelphia, particularly when The Philly Fed (Phed?) business outlook is down in July again for the 11th straight month at -13.5. Let’s see how long The Fed (aka, Green Man) keeps removing monetary stimulus. An election is approaching!
via mishtalk: Interest rate odds still imply no rate cut by the Fed until March of 2024 despite year-over-year CPI inflation falling to 3.0 percent. Higher for Longer According to CME Fedwatch, the first rate cut will not be until March of 2024. CME data represents the futures and options positioning of traders. Only recently did …
by confoundedinterest17 Now that I know that the US is building a railroad from the Pacific Coast to the Indian Ocean (according to Resident Joe Negan), I feel so much better. /sarc On the other hand, The Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook index for June fell to -13.7. On the positive side, retail sales surprised to …