market

China’s economy at a critical juncture: Q3 growth at 4.9%, Real Estate Market down 81% (2021-2022) and 64% (2023), Shanghai Composite tests 20-year ‘Fate Line.’

China’s economy is teetering at a “critical stage,” expanding a modest 4.9% in Q3, below the five percent target. The aftermath of draconian Covid measures persists despite their removal in 2022. Surprisingly, an economic model reliant on debt-fueled construction faces challenges. Ghost cities, idle airports, and vacant skyscrapers showcase the limitations of this approach. China’s …

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As S&P 500 reaching local high, its 6m ATM put options are on 3-year low and cost 3%. Shorting the index is relatively cheap now. This market is high on crack.

by ChampionshipUsed9855 VIX is below 13 again. QQQ has been basically flat for nearly a month. The FOMC is next week, could be a pivot point. Even the perma-bull just admitted this market is high on crack:https://t.co/OOk8ZN4gf9“Buyers have gotten drunk as a proverbial skunk, buying the worst of the worst…there’s a nasty hangover on the …

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Addicted To Gov! $350 Billion In Brand New Central Bank Behind Market Rally (On Top Of US Fiscal Inferno!)

by confoundedinterest17 You might as well face it, markets are “addicted to gov.” Government monetary interference, that is. Government money printing and massive Federal spending. According to Goldman calculations, $350BN of liquidity (in USD terms) was added in November from the G4 central banks + the PBOC was nothing short of a fire hose. In fact, this was the third …

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The Real Economy is Nothing Like The Stock Market

by Chris Black The post Covid boom is over for discretionary items. When people were locked at home, and flush with stimulus cash, they all bought new furniture and redid their homes. Furniture has insane markup. A table that costs $20 to make sells for $200 retail. Retailers believe they are entitled to the obscene …

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Christmas Targeted: Lincoln Cancels Market, Mayor Visits Abroad; Canada Deems Holiday Racist.

In an astonishing move, the Lincoln council has axed the UK’s oldest Christmas market, a local economic powerhouse at £15 million. Meanwhile, Lincoln’s Mayor conveniently enjoys the festivities in Germany, raising eyebrows. The reason? A “safety risk” due to popularity. Really? Christmas markets thrive on being popular; that’s their essence. It sounds like a joke, …

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The Fed’s potential halt in tightening doesn’t guarantee a stock market boom, as historical patterns show a mixed outcome influenced by factors like recession and market pricing.

The prospect of the Fed concluding its tightening raises questions about an imminent stock market boom, yet historical trends offer no definitive answers. Analyzing the S&P 500’s performance after past Fed peaks reveals a mixed picture, with the market experiencing both falls and rallies. The outcome hinges on the potential occurrence of a recession and …

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The current state of the housing market is astonishingly expensive for almost everyone, reflecting an unprecedented reality in real estate.

Despite a surge in mortgage rates, home prices continued to rise, registering a 3.9% increase in September compared to the previous year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. This growth coincided with a climb in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate towards 8%. While rents show signs of easing, home prices are currently nearly 10% …

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S&P Global Market Intelligence: UBS is least efficient bank in Europe in Q3 2023. A hefty $785 million loss paired with a 91% surge in operating expenses due to Credit Suisse. Those Credit Suisse bags are HEAVY!

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/ubs-is-least-efficient-bank-in-europe-in-q3-2023-79149692 The Swiss bank recorded a third-quarter cost-to-income ratio of 99.56%, representing a 10.61-percentage-point increase from the previous quarter. UBS posted a third-quarter net loss attributable to shareholders of $785 million, compared to a $1.73 billion profit booked a year ago. Operating expenses surged 91% to $11.64 billion due to the ongoing integration …

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Crisis Unfolding: China’s Deepening Job Market Woes, Risky Real Estate Loans, and Soaring Budget Deficit Sound Alarm Bells

A crisis looms over China as alarming signs of economic distress emerge. Despite official claims, the job market’s true fragility is exposed by online listings and household surveys, painting a grimmer picture. Adding to the ominous scenario, China is contemplating unsecured loans for real estate developers, marking an unprecedented move with potentially catastrophic consequences. As …

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Thanksgiving Market Extravaganza: S&P 500 and Nasdaq Surge Amidst Overbought Conditions, Global Stock Funds Inflow, Cash Dominance, and Record Highs for Bitcoin ETFs

As Thanksgiving approaches, the financial markets reflect a robust performance, with the S&P 500 ETF ($SPY) marking an 8.8% increase for the month and a remarkable 20.3% gain for the year. The Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ) outshines, boasting an impressive 47.1% surge. Global stock funds experience a notable influx, attracting around $40 billion in the two …

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Stagnating Bonds and Market Zombiefication: The Lingering Effects of a Zero Interest Rate Environment in the US

by 21plankton Germany financial sector facing dark clouds, Bundesbank warns FRANKFURT, Nov 23 (Reuters) – Germany’s financial firms may be well capitalised now but face challenges ranging from rising interest expenditure and weak loan demand to unrealised losses, Bundesbank Vice President Claudia Buch said on Wednesday. Interest rates have risen at the fastest pace on …

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Cracks in the US labor market are beginning to appear….

🇺🇸 Cracks in the US labor market are beginning to appear as 6 of 7 employment-based #recession indicators have appeared. H/t: @hussmanjp pic.twitter.com/rgAgcMFI3G — Alex Joosten (@joosteninvestor) November 23, 2023 https://twitter.com/joosteninvestor/status/1727721023150129258/history

Caution Abounds in Equities: Declining Buybacks and Prolonged Earnings Downgrades Cast Shadows on Stock Market

The current VIX level of 13 reflects a hesitancy among investors to take a bearish stance on the prominent Big 7 stocks. Global corporate buybacks, on a downward trajectory since 2019 despite heightened volatility in inflation and interest rates, may indicate a erosion of savings. As downgrades to U.S. earnings estimates persist for nine consecutive …

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Investor Exodus: Housing Market Sees Record Drop in Purchases, 7 Sun Belt Cities Witness Steepest Declines

As investor purchases in the housing market plummet at an unprecedented rate, dropping 29.7% year over year to 48,667 in Q3 2023—the lowest third-quarter level since 2016—the broader US real estate landscape faces a significant slowdown. Investors are scaling back on their purchases in the housing market at a record pace. Investor purchases dropped 29.7% …

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Global Debt Soars to $310 Trillion as Gold Eyes Breakout, Analysts Brace for Unprecedented Market Shift

As global debt skyrockets to nearly $310 trillion and gold reclaims its position above $2,000, investor @Frank_Giustra warns of an impending crisis dwarfing the impact of the 2008 recession. With gold poised for a breakout from a triple-top formation and historical trends suggesting resilience during rate-hike pauses by the Fed, the stage is set for …

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Regulators Warn of Excessive Risk in Treasury Market, Fear Disorderly Unwind Poses Threat to Financial Stability

US Treasury market debate around hedge fund collateral intensifies “NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) – As U.S. regulators ready rules that would push more trading in Treasuries to a central clearing venue, the industry’s focus is turning on a key question: how much collateral should hedge funds and others put up to trade there. At …

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Nvidia’s Wild Ride: Stock Plunges Nearly 7% Post-Earnings Despite Stellar Q3 Performance, $1.2 Trillion Valuation Sparks Intense Market Volatility

In a rollercoaster ride for investors, Nvidia, a colossal $1.2 trillion company, briefly witnessed a nearly 7% dip in its stock after posting stellar Q3 results exceeding expectations. With revenue at $18.1 billion and EPS at $4.02, the top 10 largest company in the world showcased its ability to move significantly, rallying nearly 30% in …

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Market Volatility Surges: From Rate Hike Expectations to Potential Cuts, Collateral Haircuts at Zero Raise Concerns of a Brewing Crisis

As we navigate the currents of financial markets, the landscape reveals a precarious situation. Reflecting on the March 2020 crisis, which extended beyond the realm of COVID-19 to a massive blowout of the basis trade, the present scenario raises alarms. Collateral haircuts hover at zero or near-zero levels, with banks shouldering increasing risks. Astonishingly, the …

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Biden’s Housing Market! Existing Home Sales Crash To Slowest Since 2010 (-14.6% YoY), Hit Record Low In The West (Simply Unaffordable)

by confoundedinterest17 Even Biden’s press secretary Karine Jean Pierre admitted that all the slogans and hype about Bidenomics is a losing message. The economy is terrible for the middle class and low-wage workers. But excellent for the 1% donor and political elite class. But housing is very important to the middle class … and housing is …

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Car Market Collapse Will Trigger The Biggest Shift In Prices As Companies Brace For Chaos Ahead

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KwtJhaLqzw We have good news if you’re in the market for a new or used car: The U.S. auto market is finally facing the shift everyone was waiting for – prices are reporting significant month-over-month declines, and a set of factors, including a higher-than-expected rise in supply, will lead to even steeper price cuts in …

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DC Commercial Real Estate Crisis: Dupont Circle Office Sells at 77% Discount, Reflecting Wider Market Turmoil; $8B in CMBS Loans, 18% Delinquency in October

DC Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Dupont Circle Office Building Sells at 77% Discount, Plunging $72M from 2016 Price. The $21M transaction is over $50M less than 2019, with the previous owner, a co-working company, defaulting on a $65M loan. Amidst reports of owners surrendering keys to lenders, the city is in the early stages …

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Tech Rally Hangs in the Balance: Nvidia’s Earnings Critical Amid Inevitable Market Meltdown Warnings

The current tech rally’s fate rests on Nvidia’s earnings, with a cautionary reminder of the overlooked lessons from Thanksgiving 2021. Despite substantial Black Friday sales, the only mega-cap breaking out to new all-time highs suggests a potential meltdown on the horizon. Bulls are urged to proceed with caution amid signs pointing to an inevitable market …

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