Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
If they cut the bond market will instantly drive the yield back up . Rates are based on risk we are an insolvent nation drowning in debt that can't even afford the interest only payments . — Jason the mason (@NobodyThan) August 13, 2025 YES. The Fed is going to cut with the most lagged …
Prediction: Q2 was the best GDP print we see this year. We spent that quarter front loading inventory ahead of the tariffs. We will see what the tariffed economy really looks like in the second half of the year. Expecting a slowdown. — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 13, 2025 what if the Fed cuts rates …
EIA now sees Brent crude falling below $60 by the end of 2025 and averaging around $50 through 2026. https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press573.php The US rig count is already in freefall. It’s down to 411 this week, from 487 in January. Back in December 2022, there were 780 rigs running. That’s a 52% collapse. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/crude-oil-rigs OPEC+ has reversed …
U.S. Stock Market at its most expensive valuation since the Great Depression 🚨 Probably Fine? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/JVCijfR202 — Barchart (@Barchart) August 11, 2025 Guess what the biggest driver of this stock market rally has been? Leverage. For the first time ever, margin debt has topped $1 trillion and has ballooned +25% over the past year. Fully one-fifth of …
American did all the right things. She went to school, became a Registered Nurse, she has $0 debt and an 808 credit score She just called trying to get a mortgage, she cant afford a mortgage payment If someone like this can’t even afford a mortgage, how can the average American American did all the …
New tenant rents are absolutely collapsing, leading indicator for overall rents and eventually the housing market pic.twitter.com/60iGWeGnvw — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 12, 2025 The claim is reliable based on Cleveland Fed and BLS data showing new tenant rents down ~9% YoY in Q2 2025, amid slowing national rent growth (-2.1% median YoY in June). …
Trump’s second-term data purge didn’t stop with the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In August 2025, he told the Congressional Budget Office to do a “methodology review,” which led three senior analysts to quit. Memos inside the CBO show the aim was to make deficit numbers match White House growth claims. At the same time, the …
Zero-day-to-expiration options now make up the majority of daily S&P 500 options trading. More than 2.1 million of these contracts trade every day, accounting for 61 percent of all activity. “Trading volume in extremely short-dated contracts tied to the S&P 500 has surged… more than 2.1 million of them changing hands daily, accounting for 61% …
Holy Shit guys the Times is hiring Redditors pic.twitter.com/pXLrBylFGX — GBR (@GayBearRes) August 10, 2025
Retail is buying the top. Insiders are selling the future. The S&P 500 is now trading at 3.15x sales, its highest valuation in history. $SPX Video: https://t.co/eJcpxsTX2d pic.twitter.com/cNKndmlmFR — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) August 10, 2025 Corporate Insiders are dumping as the stock market hits all-time highs 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/BOHwqeItU3 — Barchart (@Barchart) August 10, 2025 🚨US …
Over 40% of the S&P 500 is now concentrated in just 10 companies, a dangerous setup that we’ve only seen before the Great Depression. This is how market euphoria ends, not with a warning, but with a sudden, brutal crash that takes everyone by surprise. “Today, the ten largest companies in the S&P 500 comprise …
Treasury volatility just hit rock bottom, the lowest since January 2022. The MOVE Index cratered. Fear? Gone. Hedging? Forget it. Market signals? Silent. Only a quiet calm that should scare you. “Volatility in the Treasuries market has dropped recently, with the ICE BofA MOVE Index falling to its lowest level since January 2022.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-treasuries-volatility-gauge-falls-092845181.html Rates …
“Payroll employment growth slowed sharply to only 35,000 jobs per month over the three months ending in July. This is well below the moderate pace seen earlier in the year, likely due to a significant softening in labor demand.” https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2025/08/09/federal-reserve-rate-bowman/1681754774717/ The Fed’s dual mandate is breaking down. Inflation’s near target. Jobs are slipping. Tariffs are …
Sam Burns, Chief Strategist of Mill Street Research, explains how stock markets quickly bounced back from a drop caused by new tariffs under Trump. He warns of a slowing U.S. economy ahead while recommending balanced investments in tech stocks and safer options like utilities. Lastly, he predicts possible Fed rate cuts amid sticky inflation.
Mortgage rates are falling. Home price growth is slowing. But the market is not recovering. It is unraveling. “The median U.S. asking price rose just 2.3% year over year… one of the smallest increases in two years.” https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-fall-price-growth-slow/ “Zillow anticipates a nationwide housing correction of 1.0% over the next 12 months… these 20 cities will …
Canada’s labor market did more than stumble in July, it collapsed spectacularly. Missing job growth forecasts by over 54,000 is not just a minor slip. It signals serious cracks in the economy’s foundation. When youth unemployment reaches levels unseen since 2010, that sends a sharp warning about the future workforce and consumer spending. The sectors …
The U.S. just announced a 15% tariff hike on Japanese imports. This comes two weeks after Trump declared a “massive” trade agreement with Japan on July 22, calling it “maybe the largest deal in history.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/22/trump-trade-deal-japan-tariff-imports/85331747007/ The July 23 agreement was supposed to lock in a 15% baseline tariff and prevent a threatened 25% hike. …
It’s clear the economy is slowing down badly and yet the market continues to hit new highs daily. Such a bizarre world. pic.twitter.com/0YaCw6mAGQ — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) August 6, 2025 The U.S. economy is experiencing a noticeable slowdown in mid-2025, with sluggish domestic demand growth, muted job gains, and new tariff actions poised to impact …
In June 2025 active home sellers outnumbered buyers by 508,715, the largest gap tracked since 2013. https://www.thetitlereport.com/articles/redfin-home-sellers-outnumber-buyers-by-record-mar-94558.aspx That translates to about 34 % more sellers than buyers nationwide. https://www.redfin.com/news/sellers-vs-buyers-price-impact Power has flipped. Realtors no longer hold the cards. Many buyers have withdrawn offers. Nearly 15 % of pending deals fell through in June, creating chaos. https://www.redfin.com/news/pending-sales-fall-through-june-2025/ Markets …
Redfin: U.S. housing market now 508,715 more home sellers than homebuyers That’s the most home sellers have outmatched homebuyers in over a decade, according to Redfin pic.twitter.com/3kmfduePlh — Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 4, 2025 Lol pic.twitter.com/Y61dW5nuvv — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) August 3, 2025
The job market is completely frozen. pic.twitter.com/n9eh5AnCVV — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) August 3, 2025
Americans are skipping car payments and the auto market collapse is accelerating fast. With $847 billion in unsold cars rotting on lots, 45% of dealerships are closing permanently. Auto loan delinquencies just hit 15-year highs as average car payments reach $750/month. The used car bubble has burst, leaving millions with underwater auto loans. Car prices …
Microsoft crossed the $4 trillion market cap mark after reporting a strong quarter driven by cloud growth and AI adoption. The company’s revenue rose 12% year-over-year, underscoring its grip on enterprise software and cloud infrastructure. This milestone puts Microsoft in rare company alongside Nvidia, confirming its dominance. Market watchers caution that valuations this high carry …
S&P 500 hits frothy 39 P/E as markets soar in historic rebound but past peaks signal danger ahead If the credit market was pricing this in interest rates would be over 10%. The problem is everything is being ignored. https://t.co/5SPicZHZpp — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 29, 2025 Linkhttps://t.co/DrQuoW85rw pic.twitter.com/Fk04MoJMv8 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 30, …
The housing market is in deep trouble. pic.twitter.com/J1dgwFVuvk — Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) July 29, 2025 💥The housing market is in a massive bubble, worse than 2006… inventory is piling up while affordability collapses… This signals a coming crash… Prices will fall hard, and it could trigger a broader economic downturn… TICK TOCK… pic.twitter.com/LO9ytqmy00 — Observing …
Zillow’s traffic hit 230 million monthly visitors while home sales collapsed to a 30-year low. Inventory climbed 17 percent year over year to 1.36 million listings. Price cuts reached 26.6 percent of active listings in June. Mortgage rates hover near 7 percent. Sellers won’t list. Buyers won’t bite. Zillow’s Q2 revenue jumped double digits. Stock’s …
1/ Stay calm. There are three types of advantage in the markets: – Technical.– Behavioral.– Informational. The market is now filled with too many smart people, so nobody has a definitive technical or informational edge. The only edge you can have is behavioral; stay calm. pic.twitter.com/TfyAzi2Nz0 — Oguz Erkan (@oguzerkan) July 27, 2025 The broadening …
