Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
In 2008 and again in 2020, similar steep drops in credit were quickly followed by aggressive Fed rate cuts and liquidity injections. This time, we’re seeing the same kind of credit contraction, but the Fed is still holding rates high, and there’s no sign of emergency fiscal support coming either. That’s what makes the current …
Everyone sees the train coming, but no one wants to leave the tracks. We are living in the largest Bubble ever. It is insane (….and it will burst)! Market Capitalization to GDP: Long-term average: 88%Typical historical range: 70% – 115% Peak before Great Depression (1929): 81%Peak Dot-com Bubble (2000): 136%Peak before Great Financial… — Henrik …
$NVDA B200 AI chips have been leaking into China via the black market $AMD $GOOG $MSFT pic.twitter.com/S9rm1sgvOF — Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay) (@SpecialSitsNews) July 25, 2025
Momentum just doubled. The European Union and the United States are finalizing a trade agreement that would lock in a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. The framework mirrors the Japan deal signed days earlier. That one included a $550 billion investment pledge and a 15% tariff ceiling. The EU pact is smaller, …
Chapters 00:00 – Introduction 02:08 – Effects of Government Shutdown and Stimulus Checks 05:45 – Impact of Low Interest Rates on Asset Classes 06:41 – Influence of Energy Prices and Outsourcing on Inflation 09:39 – Impact of Trade Policies on Manufacturing 12:51 – Trade Decisions in the Post-Pandemic Era 15:19 – Impact of Sanctions on …
I'm seeing 2 possible scenarios here… 1) Melt-up and fall 50%2) Skip the 'melt-up' part Luckily, we have this chart, so we'll know when we see how price reacts at the resistance line. Bullish until it's not… pic.twitter.com/pmyXEsXH6M — Northstar (@NorthstarCharts) July 22, 2025 Bloomberg US CONTAINER VOLUMES FALL TWO MONTHS RUNNING Private data shows …
Mike Wilson sees setup repeating as sentiment peaks. The last time Extreme Greed was this extended was in March 2024.$SPX went up about 1% more before spending the next 15 or so trading days dropping 6%. Proved to be a massive buying opportunity. And this fits well with Mike Wilson’s narrative. De ja vu? pic.twitter.com/HoiTwY8TLe …
Boom turns bust as reckless call buying backfires. "Instead of using #options as part of a larger strategy to protect #portfolios from losses, individuals are mostly #speculating…with reckless buying organized on social media acted like a force-multiplier. Because options #market makers need to hedge call contracts, they buy… pic.twitter.com/7JKs4zB9sg — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) July 18, …
Euphoria blinds investors to correction risk. I’m fine selling it 10% too early than 50% too late. Zero people are preparing for a Market Correction right now Euphoria of 'we can't lose' is kicking in hard Extreme Fear: That's about right. pic.twitter.com/OC37VwjWh5 — The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) July 17, 2025 This is insanity: retail 0DTE …
Japan is the (potential) black swan no one sees coming, which could derail the current (massive) U.S. stock market mega bubble. #carrytradeunwind #fireinacrowdedtheatre https://t.co/vvBZJSFdyR — Gordon Johnson (@GordonJohnson19) July 16, 2025 Japan's next 10-year government bond (JGB) auction is scheduled for August 5, 2025, and the next 30-year JGB auction is set for August 7, …
Understanding cycles lets you rotate before the herd… Why is Macro important? Because you will beat the market by 700% If you understand Business Cycles – and allocate your Funds so that you are invested in Risk Assets when Business Cycles are bottoming, strengthening or strong – and in TLT when Business Cycles roll over …
Tom Lee, Fundstrat head of research and CIO, joins CNBC’s ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss outlooks on Nvidia, whether there may be catalysts to the upside, and much more.
Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick joins CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” team to discuss the latest tariff news, Nvidia reaching a $4 trillion market cap and more.
Nvidia has officially become the first publicly traded company to reach a $4 trillion market capitalization. The milestone was crossed on July 9 after shares rose 2.5% to close above $164. The company now sits ahead of Microsoft and Apple, both of which previously topped $3 trillion. Nvidia’s valuation has grown more than fifteenfold in …
Job openings are falling. Unemployment is flat.We’ve seen this movie before. The 2020–2025 labor market setup is starting to rhyme with 2007, when JOLTS rolled over quietly, and the unemployment rate held steady… until it didn’t. Not a perfect correlation yet, but one H2… pic.twitter.com/lCiYvZUDqL — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) July 8, 2025
Eric Basmajian, economist and founder of EPB Research, breaks down the hidden cracks in the U.S. labor market, the return of tariffs, wage stagnation, and the Fed’s precarious monetary stance amid growing recession risks.
Investors channel 2021’s reckless mania again… WSJ article over the weekend saying that profitless junk stocks have been fueling this entire rally since April:https://t.co/SdspyMwcve"Shares of unprofitable companies have outperformed since early April, and investors are now speculating like it’s 2021" One of the stocks… pic.twitter.com/KXAtpep8IN — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 7, 2025 Carvana has pulled off …
Fed faced same risks in ‘99 as today… June 1999. The Fed is concerned about: -Rampant equity speculation and its impact on wealth (SPX PE 24x, today 23x)-Too tight labor markets (UR 4.3%, today 4.1%)-Too high wage growth (ECI 3.5%, today 3.6%)-Inflation (Core CPI 2.3%, today 2.8%). They hiked from 4.75% to 5%. pic.twitter.com/A4uqxyIYmH — …
When stock markets move in the same direction, price action is confirming a larger trend – yet as markets in Europe are instead diverging, we know a larger topping trend may well be at hand. EWI’s Brian Whitmer shows you the charts you won’t see elsewhere.
It looks like tough times could be on the horizon. ADP just posted its first negative print since March 2023: private payrolls dropped 33,000 in June. The labor market is contracting. pic.twitter.com/0YlIHDNwSz — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) July 6, 2025 Something is happening in the banking system. The Fed's Primary Credit Facility is about …
Many homebuyers, investors, and realtors are now wondering – will these Fed Rate Cuts stimulate the housing market? And cause more homebuyers to come back to the market? In this video, Reventure Consulting analyzes the data on home price affordability and finds that the U.S. Housing Market is a long way off from being affordable …
It’s raising serious questions about whether today’s booming market is real, or if we’re heading for a shocking crash. This could be the biggest warning sign yet that something is deeply wrong. This chart looks like Madoff’s funds returns https://t.co/w6wr9a5HUR — JustDario 🏊♂️ (@DarioCpx) July 5, 2025 Nasdaq 10% correction before final culminating top OR …
S&P 500 market breadth is near the worst levels it's ever been byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts
6.5M sidelined want work participation rate keeps falling… 1. Sector BreakdownJune job gains were led by gov’t, healthcare, and hospitality—low-wage, service-heavy sectors. Meanwhile, business services, manufacturing, and tech were flat or shrinking. This isn’t strength—it’s a shift toward unproductive labor. pic.twitter.com/STzuNl5NM8 — The Coastal Journal (@1CoastalJournal) July 3, 2025 3. People Not in Labor Force …
Just need to fall 40% pic.twitter.com/L1nTzY4c4G — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) July 3, 2025 U.S. Housing Market has reached its most unaffordable level in history 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/KqBbG5Dpmw — Barchart (@Barchart) July 3, 2025 The market just dropped hard and anyone rushing to catch it is risking serious injury. The warning signs have been flashing for years …
What’s going on here? These stocks should be rising as the boomers age. I blame RFK’s interference along with the BBB changes in Medicaid as the culprits. Whatever it is one of the “safest” parts of the market is completely trashed. https://t.co/AvvUyEOxL7 — QE Infinity (@StealthQE4) July 3, 2025
The U.S. economy is showing signs of strain that official headlines aren’t capturing. Despite stock market gains, underlying indicators suggest a slowdown. Labor market indicators are weakening. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 28, 2025, were 227,980, a slight decrease from the previous week. However, continuing claims increased to 1,974,000, up from 1,937,000 …
