Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
The sector rotation is screaming recession louder than any headline.$XLY down 5.6% in a month. Financials down 6.1%. Healthcare down 6.8%. Meanwhile energy ripped 7.6% higher. That's a 13 point spread between energy and consumer discretionary. Costs rising while demand falls.… — TraderHC (@traderhc) March 20, 2026 Ok wtf even is this pic.twitter.com/qw3FF8W77l — Andrew …
by Michael Hundreds of millions of people all over the western world are enjoying the holiday season as if nothing has changed. But meanwhile the pounding of the war drums just continues to intensify. If the world keeps going down this path, next year’s holiday season could look completely different. Unfortunately, most people seem to …
23 states are now in a recession and 11 more are close to it. The last time this many states entered recession at once was 2008. Back then, unemployment hit 10% and foreclosures doubled within 18 months. byu/TonyLiberty inFluentInFinance 23 states are now in a recession and 11 more are close to it. The last …
Nvidia just crossed $5 trillion, and the world barely looked up. It’s the kind of number that should freeze you for a second. A single company now holds more paper value than the entire economy of Germany. It’s larger than Japan, India, the U.K., and every other country on Earth except the United States and …
Builders are spending 13.3% of home prices on buyer incentives—the highest since the 2009 crisis. “Major builders are now spending 13.3% of home prices on desperate buyer incentives—the highest since the 2009 financial crisis.” D.R. Horton reported a 10% year-over-year drop in Southeast sales. “This came after the business revealed that its Southeast division’s net …
This is what slow-motion collapse looks like. M2 is ripping, debt is spiking, and faith in fiat is circling the drain. Banking Crisis: Lender of Last Resort 2023 was three times worse than the 2008 GFC. The next crisis will be biblical. 2026? pic.twitter.com/CLU2IcYIA5 — The Great Martis (@great_martis) July 26, 2025 M2 money supply …
Bank of America calling for ATH pic.twitter.com/02CKeH2VjO — TT3 (@TradingThomas3) May 20, 2025 Perhaps the real reason the Fed has been reluctant to cut interest rates is that FOMC members realize that doing so will result in long-term rates rising. Since higher long-term rates will amount to an unwarranted tightening, the best way the Fed …
Markets are moving like nothing’s wrong, but the signals underneath are flashing in every direction. In just two hours, we had the White House deny any tariff delay, labeling headlines as fake, and Trump floated another 50 percent tariff hike on China. On paper, this should have sent markets into a tailspin. Instead, the S&P …
Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn’t seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn’t that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues …
by Midweek Memo Compared to What the Fed Is Doing, What Powell & Company Are Saying Doesn’t Make a Lick of Sense The central bankers at the Federal Reserve are saying one thing and doing another. They’re telling us that the economy is great and inflation isn’t completely dead. But they’re acting like the economy …
The world’s second-largest economy has remained under pressure from a real estate slump and tepid consumer confidence. “We believe the risk that China will miss the ‘around 5%’ full-year GDP growth target is on the rise, and thus the urgency for more demand-side easing measures is also increasing,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report. …
by Mike Maharrey Jerome Powell says the economy is in “solid shape.” Jerome Powell says inflation is still elevated. Jerome Powell says he doesn’t see a recession risk. And yet the Federal Reserve just supersized its rate cut, indicating that the central bankers are more worried about the impact of higher interest rates on this …
The US Treasury grapples with dwindling cash reserves, teetering on the brink of a debt crisis as tax day’s boost fades into obscurity. With just $45 billion remaining before hitting the theoretical limit, the nation faces an imminent surge in national debt, signaling turbulent times ahead for the economy. April’s tax day influx of $250 …
via Yahoo: As usual, this is more “eat the rich” thinking than anything remotely helpful. The world is not fast on its journey to hell in a hand-basket because of private jets flying in and out of the UK. But then, the Greens love to ban things, blame the West for everything, and cry catastrophe, …
The world stands on the precipice of a daunting financial crisis as global debt skyrockets, reaching an astonishing $235 trillion. Over the past 15 years, this sum has surged by 32%, propelled by the allure of low borrowing costs. It is a ticking time bomb that has pushed countries, including economic giants like the U.S. …
https://t.co/Im7IKCXVnV — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) October 16, 2023 https://twitter.com/Wise_Lending/status/1713906199693791711 US 10y yields jump by 10bps to 4.71% on Risk On move and US debt worries. pic.twitter.com/ORJPEh3rlx — Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 16, 2023 Economists, investors and central banks around the world are warning of the risks to China’s financial stability.
As I have predicted for many months, the closer we get to the start of US Election season, the louder the din to freeze the Ukrainian Conflict becomes. It wasn’t supposed to be this way, cutting Russia off from SWIFT was supposed to cause Russia to just roll over and die, tcollapsing into chaos and …