loans

Sound familiar to 2008?: “changes in the 90s enhanced asset securitization, shifting the prevalent mode of financial intermediation from a bank-centric model of taking deposits & issuing loans (holding them to maturity) to a new model where loans were packaged into securities & sold to investors.”

by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/11/the-nonbank-shadow-of-banks/ TLDRS: Fed paper: The evolution of banks and nonbanks is closely linked, particularly since the 1990s. In the 1990s, financial ‘innovation’ and regulatory changes boosted asset securitization. This shifted financial intermediation from a traditional bank-centric model (taking deposits, issuing loans, and holding them to maturity) to a new model where loans were …

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Crisis Unfolding: China’s Deepening Job Market Woes, Risky Real Estate Loans, and Soaring Budget Deficit Sound Alarm Bells

A crisis looms over China as alarming signs of economic distress emerge. Despite official claims, the job market’s true fragility is exposed by online listings and household surveys, painting a grimmer picture. Adding to the ominous scenario, China is contemplating unsecured loans for real estate developers, marking an unprecedented move with potentially catastrophic consequences. As …

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Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks are spiking!

Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/delallsa.htm TLDRS Delinquency Rates on Loans and Leases at Commercial Banks are spiking! Credit Card delinquencies up! All consumer loan deliquesces are up! Delinquency Rate on All Loans, All Commercial Banks is up! https://dismal-jellyfish.com/banks-alert-delinquency-rates-surge/ h/t Dismal-Jellyfish

DC Commercial Real Estate Crisis: Dupont Circle Office Sells at 77% Discount, Reflecting Wider Market Turmoil; $8B in CMBS Loans, 18% Delinquency in October

DC Commercial Real Estate in Crisis: Dupont Circle Office Building Sells at 77% Discount, Plunging $72M from 2016 Price. The $21M transaction is over $50M less than 2019, with the previous owner, a co-working company, defaulting on a $65M loan. Amidst reports of owners surrendering keys to lenders, the city is in the early stages …

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Auto Loan Debt Crisis Imminent as Wall Street Profits Selling Car Loans to High-Risk Borrowers, CMBS Defaults Surge, and Germany Predicts More Commercial Real Estate Pain

The signs of an impending auto loan debt crisis are becoming increasingly apparent, as noted by AutoMoBlog. Wall Street’s lucrative practice of selling car loans to individuals with limited capacity to repay is fueling concerns, mirroring practices reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Simultaneously, the rapid increase in defaults on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) is …

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Did the bank fail because of bad trucking loans?

via dismal-jellyfish: Jeff Plagge (the superintendent of the Iowa Division of Banking (IDOB)), also issued a statement: The bank had a concentration of out-of-territory and out-of-state loans to one industry and incurred heavy losses on some of those loans. However, prior to its failure, Citizens Bank, the FDIC, and IDOB entered into a consent order in …

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House Oversight Discovers New Paper Trails Revealing Hunter Biden’s $250,000 ‘Loans’ from China

They're about to arrest Trump again https://t.co/dBuFqJJvBJ — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 31, 2023 Joe Biden always says “Show me the money”— Well today, House Oversight revealed paper trails for another $250,000 that Hunter Biden received in “loans” from China before the 2020 election. The Bidens are bought and paid for by the CCP. — Benny …

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Soaring bond yields will bring 10% interest on car loans.

Consumers are about to feel the impact of soaring bond yields, Blackstone president Johnathan Gray told the FT. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury continued to rise on Thursday, edging closer to 5%. Higher bond yields are raising borrowing costs all over the economy, from mortgages to personal loans. American consumers are about to feel …

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Banks Face Looming Credit Crisis: Sharp Declines and Record Bad Loan Write-Offs Signal Imminent Credit Event

The situation is getting serious as banks are experiencing one of the sharpest declines in lending activity ever recorded. This means they’re not lending money as readily as before. At this rate, we might be heading towards a “credit event,” which essentially means a big problem in the world of credit and lending. Moreover, banks …

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As rates have nearly tripled on most forms of debt, bankruptcy filings are rising. Nearly $270 billion of leveraged loans carry weak credit profiles and are potentially at risk of default

“Bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $10 million in liabilities are rising sharply. Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, bankruptcy filings have more than doubled. Corporations, individuals, and the government all got used to historically low interest rates. As rates have nearly tripled on most forms of debt, bankruptcy filings are …

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Are auto loans the next 2008 housing crisis?

by IWEARYOURCLOTHES I just wanna start with the typical, I’m highly regarded so don’t take anything I say seriously and I have no diarrhea about what I’m talking about. So tonight at dinner my dad told me that someone he was talking to said that, the Bank of Montreal and some other bank but he …

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A crisis is looming: Small US banks hold over 70% of $2T in CRE loans, exceeding ’06 guidance. With $1.5T CRE refinancing ahead, vacancies high, and prices falling, excessive exposure risks instability.

“JUST IN: Nearly 700 US banks now exceed the 2006 Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loan concentration guidance. What is the CRE loan concentration guidance? It’s guidance by the FDIC for the amount of exposure that small banks should have to CRE loans. Currently, small banks hold over 70% of CRE loans which is $2 trillion …

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Hedge Fund liabilities, exposure from derivatives, and leveraged loans all hit new all time high in 2023:Q1.

by Dismal-Jellyfish This table shows the aggregate assets and liabilities of hedge funds that file Form PF with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Unlike table B.101.f in the regular Financial Accounts publication, which reports assets and liabilities of domestic hedge funds only, this table presents data on all hedge funds that file Form PF, both domestic and …

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Student Loans – Economists Baffled

Student loan forbearance repealed starting on Oct 1. For each person with a loan that’s $400 per month. Just another headwind to add to the pile. Prediction: Economists will be baffled. Percent of Russell 3000 Earnings Calls Mentioning Student Loans pic.twitter.com/79uQ2rjWIe — Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) September 11, 2023 h/t Tonight We Ride!

Investors lower outlook for consumers as student loans, credit card debts pile up

Scary Halloween in markets? 🎃 👻 “Consumer confidence fell more than expected in August, while delinquency rates among credit cards issued by smaller banks are the highest on record, according to data from the Apollo Group…Payments on approximately $1.1 trillion of federal student loans will resume in October, potentially setting consumers up for a “payment …

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In June, the total amount of money owed to finance companies (Consumers, Real Estate, Business) increased 17.7%. In the first quarter, the interest rate for new car loans was 6.4% with a maturity of 66 months financing $39,066. For used cars, 15.7% with 66 months financing at $23,537

by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g20/current/g20.pdf In June 2023, the total outstanding amount owed was approximately $1,850.9 billion dollars–up 14.7% from May! In the first quarter, the interest rate for new car loans was 6.4% with a maturity of 66 months financing $39,066. For used cars, 15.7% with 66 months financing at $23,537. Wut Mean?: Folks and businesses are …

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Credit Card Loans Delinquency Rate Highest in 10 years – The “resilient consumer” is slowly but surely closing in on the cliff

Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans, All Commercial Bank. The “resilient consumer” choochoo train is slowly but surely headed towards the cliff. We have been saying it almost forever, but the train is closing in slowly for the big crash. NORDSTROM: “.. we have seen delinquencies rising gradually and they are now above pre-pandemic levels, …

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Current debt levels are dangerously high, with $17.1 trillion in household, $12.0 trillion in mortgage, $1.6 trillion in auto loans, and $1.0 trillion in credit card debt.

For the first time in history, the median monthly mortgage payment is nearing $3000/month. Mortgage rates are now at their highest since 2002. Inflation has made many basic necessities into unaffordable things. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 20, 2023 https://t.co/iEvXXZxXfn — Win Smart, CFA …

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Yellen calls rising credit card debt the sign of a strong consumer. No, Janet, it means tapped out consumers are sinking further into debt they can’t possibly repay.

The US has $17.1 trillion in household debt, $12.0 trillion in mortgages, $1.6 trillion in auto loans, $1.6 trillion in student loans, and $1.0 trillion in credit card debt. pic.twitter.com/xU9iQN2f5f — MapleMAGA 🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@MapleMAGAw5) August 8, 2023 US Total Household Debt Hits an All-Time High of $17 Trillion; Credit Card Debt Also Sets New Record …

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MOODY’S DOWNGRADES 10 U.S. BANKS, WARNS OF POSSIBLE CUTS TO OTHERS.

Moody’s cuts US banks due to rising funding costs and Rising risk tied to Commercial Real Estate (CRE) loans Moody’s Investors Service hs lowered credit ratings for 10 small and midsize US banks and said it may downgrade major lenders including U.S. Bancorp, Bank of New York Mellon Corp., State Street Corp., and Truist Financial …

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A very Healthy U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Index & Morningstar LSTA US Performing Loans TR USD

by MyRealLifeHD The S&P U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities Index is a measure of the performance of mortgage-backed securities. A decline in the index could have a number of implications for the stock market. Lower mortgage rates: Mortgage-backed securities are typically priced inversely to interest rates. This means that when interest rates fall, the prices of mortgage-backed securities …

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Global credit downgrades have gone up while banks have been making it harder to get loans

Businesses' ability to pay back credit has been getting worse Global credit downgrades have gone up while banks have been making it harder to get loans pic.twitter.com/HHO0eNTsva — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) August 1, 2023 Beware: Interest rates are now at levels seen during the peak of the 2007/2008 Financial Crisis pic.twitter.com/MPaduAwnRX — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) …

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45 million people with student loans face monthly payments of $200… 40% of US adults report having less than $1,000 of savings.

"There are a total of 45 million people with student loans, and the average monthly student loan payment is around $200, so resuming student loan payments in October will subtract roughly $9 billion from consumer spending every month, or roughly $100 billion a year" Apollo's Slok — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 31, 2023 This is …

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U.S. Bank lending on the decline! Commercial and Industrial loans slide for two weeks straight. Meanwhile, GDP up 2.4% last quarter? Is it sustainable growth or fueled by mounting debt? #Economy #BankLending #GDP #Debt”

by Dismal-Jellyfish Reminder, while banks have the liquidity fairy, ‘we’ get the promise of 2 more rate hikes this year, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic yet again enrichens himself inappropriately from his position. What I want to talk about this afternoon is–Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks. What are Commercial and Industrial Loans? Commercial and Industrial (C&I) …

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Americans face increased credit rejection rates, reaching 21.8% in 12 months through June. The rejection rate for auto loans exceeded the application rate.

Americans are having a much harder time accessing credit. The rejection rate for loan applicants jumped to 21.8% in the 12 months through June, the highest level in 5 years: Fed data. The rejection rate for auto loans exceeded the application rate. https://t.co/Ag5BnmDKlP pic.twitter.com/w6iSrPAqoj — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) July 17, 2023 ​ https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/credit-access#/ Wut mean? …

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