Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by John-Wetter-2310 If you’re picturing a bunch of bank executives in capes, cackling maniacally as they raise interest rates, you’re not alone. The incredibly sharp rise in mortgage rates has left prospective buyers shocked. In fact, mortgage demand is at its lowest levels since 1995. Why is this happening? Two main reasons: The Federal …
by confoundedinterest17 The US is experencing a slow down. The massive Federal government and Federal Reserve Covid stimulus has worn out and we are left with a sagging jobs report and soaring credit card delinquencies. After ADP’s reports printed almost perfectly in line with BLS last month (+177k vs +187k), all eyes are on today’s print, …
by Michael It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the Military Industrial Complex to our society. It employs millions of people, and it brings in hundreds of billions of dollars each year. The Military Industrial Complex has always been one of the central pillars of our economy, and these days business is booming …
by confoundedinterest17 Wasting away again in Biden’s Mortgage Market! Looking for our lost economy. Mortgage rates moved to their highest levels in over 20 years as Treasury yields increased late last week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 7.41 percent, the highest rate since December 2000, and the 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage rate increased …
BREAKING : G7 Chair Japan refuses support to Canada Japan has not yet agreed to a suggestion to raise the issue of killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil at the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on Saturday. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com//news/india/g7-chair-japan-refuses-support-to-canada/articleshow/103874390.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst …
via reason: As election season approaches, Democrats are touting the economic results of Biden administration policies aimed at improving the lives of working Americans and creating a more equitable economy. But ordinary Americans aren’t feeling the so-called success of “Bidenomics.” Superficially, the economy looks solid. As measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), it increased …
Fed chair Powell makes no mention of this brutal hit to real estate market. Higher for longer looks like it is the plan – damn the market and economic torpedoes that are coming. h/t j_stars
by Michael Hundreds of millions of people are desperately hungry all over the world, and by the time you are done reading this article more children will starve to death. Earlier this year, CNN actually admitted that we are in the midst of “the worst food crisis in modern history”, but because the mainstream media rarely features …
by confoundedinterest17 Well, this isn’t good if you are a mortgage lender. Mortgage applications decreased 0.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 8, 2023. This week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. The Market Composite …
BREAKING: New York City is facing a level of homelessness not seen since the Great Depression in the 1930s, per Reuters. — unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) September 12, 2023
US oil inventories have collapsed as measured by days of supply as well. Below 1982 levels! pic.twitter.com/N7Ps2UGo6w — Josh Young (@JoshYoung) September 9, 2023 h/t Simian_Stacker
The equity risk premium (ERP) is at the lowest level since 2006 Indicating that stocks are very expensive relative to bonds pic.twitter.com/5tysUfs1Hy — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 4, 2023 This ratio hit levels comparable to the Dot Com bubble We all know how it ended back then… pic.twitter.com/gb9Uzm7MPj — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) September 5, 2023 …
The surgical N95 mask has been held up as the gold standard when it comes to protecting against Covid. But a study quietly re-shared by the National Institutes of Health in spring suggests the tight-fitting mask may expose users to dangerous levels of toxic chemicals. Researchers from Jeonbuk National University in South Korea looked at …
Which ear were the hurtful words spoken into? Is there permanent damage to your feelings?
by confoundedinterest17 The Talking Heads said it best. Bidenomics is burning down the housing market. Bidenomincs (or trying to recover from Yellenomics) is responisble for interest rates rising to flight inflation and the collapse of mortgage lending. And she was … Janet Yellen. Mortgage demand (applications) decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from …
by marketsimulator Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/capital_markets/ycfaq.html#/overview The yield curve as a leading indicator uses the 10y-3mo value to predict the probability of recession. July report came out last week and May ’24 is higher than any time in the last 40 years at 70.85%. Estimates currently go through July ’24. This is not the fed’s official prediction but …
🚩🚩 𝗨𝗦 𝗖𝗢𝗥𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗔𝗧𝗘 𝗕𝗔𝗡𝗞𝗥𝗨𝗣𝗧𝗖𝗜𝗘𝗦 𝗔𝗧 𝗛𝗜𝗚𝗛𝗘𝗦𝗧 𝗟𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗟 𝗦𝗜𝗡𝗖𝗘 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟬 Full Story → https://t.co/4TpL3JARAz Total Chapter 11 filings in the first seven months of 2023 surpassed the total filings for the previous year. pic.twitter.com/M4ZRmAC1RY — PiQ (@PiQSuite) August 7, 2023 Number of M&A deals YTD pic.twitter.com/luXVXQUst9 — zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 7, 2023
The Biden Administration announced intent to refill reserves almost a year ago. A target price of $67-$72 per barrel of crude oil was established. Currently, we are almost 20% above that level. A major issue. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 5, 2023
by Dismal-Jellyfish Source: https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/july-filings-propel-2023-us-corporate-bankruptcy-tally-past-2022-s-total-76838356 US corporate bankruptcies rose again in July as high interest rates and a challenging operating environment continue to push US companies over the brink. S&P Global Market Intelligence recorded 64 corporate bankruptcy filings in July, the largest monthly total since March and more filings than in any single month in 2021 …
by Dismal-Jellyfish https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2023/august-2023 Highlights: The BoE decided to raise the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.25% with a 6-3 vote. New projections assume the Bank Rate will peak at just over 6% and average just under 5.5% over the next three years. Economic growth has been steady, but recent indicators show possible weakening. …
Otavio (Tavi) Costa: “Corporate bonds now yield only 0.12% above the Fed Funds rate. The lowest level since 2007, preceding the Global Financial Crisis. Every time credit spreads were at historically suppressed levels, a hard-landing scenario followed. Perhaps this time is indeed different, but I would rather base my perspective on numerous indicators pointing towards …
Retail crime surges to record levels with repeat offenders and criminal gangs operating exempt from consequences, new data released by Co-op reveals today (Thursday, 27 July). Co-op has seen crime, shoplifting and anti-social behaviour jump 35% year-on-year, with more than 175,000 incidents recorded in the first six months of this year – almost 1,000 incidents …
Darth Powell knows: This is the result of economic and social terrorism caused by the elite/donor class and Federal Reserve. Rewarding the most worthless, least productive members of society (asset price speculators) over actual production/innovation. https://t.co/UhRkGnrXJL — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) July 25, 2023 How long can the Fed & its PE accomplices delay the inevitable? …
US consumer confidence is soaring to a two-year high as a robust job market and easing inflation foster renewed optimism. pic.twitter.com/hbr0xT2Agm — Quiver Quantitative (@QuiverQuant) July 25, 2023 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-confidence-hits-highest-level-in-two-years-155813210.html We shall see how confident many consumers are when student loan payments resume. My bet is that stores valuing low prices will be able to ride …
by Michael If you are trying to sell your home right now, I feel so sorry for you. Thanks to the Federal Reserve, mortgage rates have risen to very alarming levels, and this has scared millions of potential homebuyers out of the market. Compared to two years ago, the average potential homebuyer is facing mortgage …
by Michael Most people that live in the western world don’t realize that global hunger has been absolutely exploding and has now become a major worldwide issue. According to the UN, 2.4 billion people do not have enough food to eat on a consistent basis, and 900 million of them are facing severe food insecurity. Unfortunately, things are about …
2/ Rising bankruptcies coincides with bond yields hitting 4%, a level previously associated with the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and UK pension fund crisis pic.twitter.com/tcC6aBY9UD — Bravos Research (@bravosresearch) July 20, 2023 4/ A Deutsche Bank survey indicates that over half of market professionals anticipate market stress due to higher rates While 20% foresee minimal …
