Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
Stocks hit record highs fueled by relentless buying. The Buffett Indicator is a simple way to measure if the stock market is overvalued. It compares the total value of all U.S. stocks to the size of the U.S. economy. Formula: Stock Market Value ÷ GDP If that number gets too high, it’s a sign that …
Fed faced same risks in ‘99 as today… June 1999. The Fed is concerned about: -Rampant equity speculation and its impact on wealth (SPX PE 24x, today 23x)-Too tight labor markets (UR 4.3%, today 4.1%)-Too high wage growth (ECI 3.5%, today 3.6%)-Inflation (Core CPI 2.3%, today 2.8%). They hiked from 4.75% to 5%. pic.twitter.com/A4uqxyIYmH — …
The housing market is not just cooling. It is cracking. The latest data from May 2025 shows existing home sales running at an annualized pace of 4.03 million units. That is the weakest May since 2009. It is also the second-worst May on record. Sales have now declined year over year for four straight months. …
"The economic data change index is at its lowest level in more than two years, while the economic surprise index is at its lowest level of 2025."@LJKawa pic.twitter.com/MKELKxtPHl — Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) June 19, 2025 CPI ex-shelter falls to 1.5% yet Fed and Wall Street still fear tariffs and wages, ignoring signs of real disinflation …
The Bank of Japan is shrinking its balance sheet at a record pace: The Bank of Japan’s bond holdings dropped by -6.2 trillion Yen in Q1 2025, the most on record. Over the last 5 quarters, the BoJ's holdings have now declined by -14.2 trillion Yen. As a result, the BoJ's… pic.twitter.com/JJjLSzhyka — The Kobeissi …
Crude oil volatility just exploded to 71.5—its highest level in over a year. Historically, $OVX above 55 signals major stress in energy markets. We’re now well beyond that. This isn’t noise. This is dislocation. pic.twitter.com/w3S5TnB9JN — Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS® (@kurtsaltrichter) June 17, 2025 What it implies: Energy markets are on edge. This level of …
BREAKING 🚨: Bonds The market value of Treasury Bonds as a % of the market value of Stocks has fallen to its lowest level since the 1960s pic.twitter.com/5MM4RYIo7B — Barchart (@Barchart) June 9, 2025 ⁉️Does central bank liquidity matter for US stocks? Global central banks total assets on their balance sheets have declined over the …
by Michael The Russians and the Chinese have both been developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles that can cause such immense destruction that they make the nuclear bomb that destroyed Hiroshima look like a child’s toy. The U.S. has been working on a new intercontinental ballistic missile too, but it won’t be ready for quite a …
U.S. Dollar is now used in nearly 50% of global payments, the highest level in more than 12 years 🚨 Euro not so much… pic.twitter.com/sCJ3lFiPQq — Barchart (@Barchart) May 29, 2025 The U.S. dollar has reached its highest level in global payments in more than 12 years, now accounting for nearly 50 percent of all …
What The Headline GDP Number Doesn’t Show byu/stockpreacher instockpreacher BREAKING: US goods imports fall -19.8% in April as President Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" effectively halted trade with many countries. This marks the largest drop in history for US goods imports. — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 30, 2025 “There was always concern that it would be …
Monthly Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index at its highest level in history 🚨 pic.twitter.com/MJGzrhLpxi — Barchart (@Barchart) May 19, 2025 Economic policy uncertainty is at an all-time high. pic.twitter.com/5Ln2KXdR82 — Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 14, 2025
(Bloomberg) — Chinese shipments of Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) iPhone and other mobile devices to the US dived to their lowest levels since 2011 in April, underscoring how the threat of US tariffs choked off the flow of big-ticket goods between the world’s two largest economies. Smartphone exports slid 72% to just under $700 million last …
When Japan’s 40-year yield spikes…It’s not just a Japan problem.It’s a global leverage problem ticking louder. — FromRedToRiches (@FromRedToRiches) May 20, 2025 Japan’s 10 year yield the past month💀☠️: I mean this is so far below where their 40 year bond is trading which trades at 3.5% plus. Inflation is way higher than 1.52% My …
The chart shows the NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) on May 19, 2025, closing at 19,215.46, up 4.36% for the day, with a 1-year view. The index has been volatile over the past year, peaking around 20,204.58 and dipping to 14,784.03, with recent upward momentum after a low near 16,000 in early April 2025. Analysis: Trend …
https://twitter.com/rev_cap/status/1922734542676185216 Everyone lowers their expectations to just get into the ponzi scheme then the rug gets pulled. Then you're left with a house you don't want that's underwater pic.twitter.com/ZE4rH7vEYU — Darth Powell (@VladTheInflator) May 14, 2025
The gap between what sellers want for their homes versus what they're selling for just hit its widest level in 5 years 🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/xhM6rVTIGa — Barchart (@Barchart) April 30, 2025 CNBC Super real estate agent Ryan Serhant: Spring selling season was good until April. March was great In April things stopped 🛑 36% of all …
BNPL: do you love it or hate it? 41% of users missed payments in the past year (LendingTree 2025), and with credit cards at 11.35% delinquency (Fed), it’s a lifeline for some, a nightmare for others. Now BNPL is being reported to credit reports. YIKES! 200K+ of you felt very… — Amanda Goodall (@thejobchick) April …
https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1915538856834715854 The housing market had its worst March since the global financial crisis, weighed down by high borrowing costs and falling consumer confidence in the economy. Home sales fell to their lowest annual level for March since 2009, dashing hopes for a rebound this year. Sales of previously owned homes plunged 5.9 percent from February …
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.7% in March 2025 to 100.5, after a decline of 0.2% in February. 👇🏼 pic.twitter.com/QaFvkXJliE — Kalani o Māui (@MauiBoyMacro) April 21, 2025 Americans considering filing for bankruptcy hits highest level since pandemic… Bankruptcy filings are on the rise in 2025. This year, …
The Brief Bankruptcy filings are on the rise in 2025. This year, over 140,000 bankruptcy filings were reported in the U.S. Americans thinking about bankruptcy are tied to financial factors like tariffs and consumer debt. A new report reveals that more people are pondering filing for bankruptcy in the first half of 2025, which is …
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index soars to highest level in history 🚨 Congrats everyone, we did it 🥳🍾🫡 pic.twitter.com/ej3UmjGk1q — Barchart (@Barchart) April 16, 2025
Not since the early weeks of the pandemic have Americans been this certain that unemployment will spike. Consumers surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in March put a 44% probability on the nation’s jobless rate being higher a year later, marking the highest level since April 2020. The New York Fed’s latest …
The inflation-adjusted yield on 30-year Treasuries hit the highest level since 2008 last week, at 2.7%. pic.twitter.com/gDjLYv7RNh — Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) April 13, 2025 the dollar is fine they said.. yeah investors keep dumping debt and the dollar like a 3rd world country. pic.twitter.com/4odlHpSQBz — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) April 14, 2025
The ongoing increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the United States has caused panic in the market. Investors are selling off Chinese assets, which is leading to an outflow of capital and a sharp depreciation of the currency. On the night of April 8th, the offshore Chinese yuan hit a new low, dropping from …
Consumer Sentiment continues its slide. Meanwhile, consumers now expecting inflation to top 6.7% pic.twitter.com/8ZaheWURXq — Jack Jernigan (@JackJernigan1) April 11, 2025 Consumer sentiment plunged 11% this month to a preliminary reading of 50.8, the University of Michigan said in its latest survey released Friday, the second-lowest reading on records going back to 1952. April’s reading …
Politico was surprised that countries are not quickly raising their tariffs. Trading partners wonder what pain level he will sustain and who must concede first. The bottom line is that when it comes to Trump today, “We don’t know what the pain threshold is,” said Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist for investment banking firm Stifel …
The unclassified report from US spy agencies is only seven pages long. But it surely struck fear into the hearts of China’s Communist overlords when Tulsi Gabbard released it last month. It was supposed to. The report from Gabbard’s Office of the Director of National Intelligence is entitled “Wealth and Corrupt Activities of the Leadership …
BREAKING: More Winning. Oil Prices Drop To Lowest Level Since 2021 In a stunning win for America First policies, oil prices have crashed to their lowest since 2021, with crude tanking to $65.50 a barrel today, proving President Trump’s energy dominance is back in full force.… pic.twitter.com/fjNfC2Fta4 — MAGA Resource (@MAGAResource) April 4, 2025
by Michael Have you ever not been able to sleep at night because you are stressed out about your finances? If so, you are certainly not alone. When there is simply not enough money coming in to pay all the bills, the pressure can be excruciating. The cost of food, housing and other essentials has been …
Japanese 10-Year Bond Yield jumps to highest level since the Global Financial Crisis byu/RobertBartus inEconomyCharts https://twitter.com/leadlagreport/status/1905008623799177521