Independent thinking for complex markets and current events
by Michael If you are having a really difficult time keeping up with the rapidly rising cost of living, you are certainly not alone. This year, “affordability” was a buzzword that was constantly on the lips of politicians, economists and talking heads on television. As you will see below, Americans are being slammed by rising …
Popular Kentucky bourbon maker Jim Beam plans to pause production at its main distillery on Jan. 1, according to the James B. Beam Distilling Co. The decision comes as Kentucky faces an increasing supply of aging barrels and uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade wars. Kentucky has an all-time high of 16.1 million aging …
Let’s be honest.. The only thing this administration has kept their word on has been deportations. Everything is still unaffordable ( gaslit everyday & saying it’s a “hoax” ), gotten into countless wars ( none have ended ), bailing out foreign countries, none stop foreign aid,… https://t.co/JfNUVC61Jy — blake (@blakestonks) December 6, 2025 BESSENT: US …
BREAKING: U.S. layoffs set to surpass the Great Recession levels, on track to be worst since Great Depression. — Polymarket (@Polymarket) December 7, 2025 US layoffs soar past 1.1M in 2025, highest level since the pandemic November saw 71,321 job cuts announced, down 53% from October but pushing yearly total up 54% Layoffs announced by …
Low Claims, Slow Cracks And The Labor Market’s Most Misleading Signal This chart only measures one thing…how many people got laid off this week and immediately filed for unemployment insurance. And on that narrow metric, the number is undeniably low, the lowest since late 2022. If you look at it in isolation, it doesn’t give …
Playing out, sadly: RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS #Employment ADP commentary from Chief Economist Richardson: “Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses.” Playing out, sadly: RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS#Employment ADP …
Challenger, Gray & Christmas said layoff plans totaled 71,321 in November, a step down from the massive cuts announced in October but still enough to bring the 2025 total up to 1.17 million. The most-cited reason for the month was restructuring, followed by closings and market or economic conditions. Announced job cuts from U.S. employers …
Note: “Weak consumer spending” refers to store expectations before the season started. Consumer spending ended up being high which is why Black Friday set a new record No paywall: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/seasonal-hiring-offers-little-reprieve-for-labor-market-woes-110044972.html Plenty of Americans are expected to pour into stores and fill online carts this holiday shopping season. Fewer may be able to pick up seasonal work …
by Michael For a long time we were warned that when the financial system finally started melting down, the price of silver would explode. It appears that those that predicted this were quite prescient. The yen carry trade is unwinding, more than a trillion dollars in cryptocurrency wealth has been wiped out, stocks and bonds have …
U.S.-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, up 175% from the 55,597 cuts announced in October 2024. It is up 183% from the 54,064 job cuts announced one month prior, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. “October’s pace of job cutting was much …
The system is quietly trapping everyone while pretending nothing’s wrong. According to the BLM's most recent numbers, private employers are reporting 13,500 job cuts a WEEK. These are PRIVATE EMPLOYERS. NOT GOVERNMENT JOBS. The BLM reports we are seeing the worst job numbers since 2008. If you can HONESTLY justify that, you're a lot of …
Alternative data shows US layoffs are surging: Job cuts tracked by MacroEdge jumped +70,609 MoM in October, to 154,559, the highest in at least 2 years. Monthly job cuts have now exceeded 100,000 for the 5th time this year. At the same time, layoff announcements compiled by Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest …
This news is totally insane CEOs of Walmart and Amazon want Americans to receive stimulus again. They want it so bad! h/t @LockedUpLarry
The company has 114 million active consumers, with 27 million new active users in the prior three months. However, while Klarna is attracting more customers, the company’s average revenue per user fell about 10%. Klarna’s actual loan losses improved slightly year over year, underscoring that consumers are still paying on time. Sales of Klarna’s new …
There’s already a notable drop in consumption, truck fright in the US is down 17% YoY, while shipping containers inbound from China is down 15% YoY. JUST IN: Powell says job creation is "close to zero" due to AI — Kalshi (@Kalshi) November 7, 2025 The top 10% of U.S. households hold 87% of all …
Job cuts for October totaled 153,074, a 183% surge from September and 175% higher than the same month a year ago. It was the highest level for any October since 2003. Companies in the technology sector announced 33,281 cuts, nearly six times the level in September. “Like in 2003, a disruptive technology is changing the …
A federal judge has indefinitely blocked President Trump’s efforts to lay off thousands of federal employees amid the government shutdown. U.S. District Judge Susan Illston, an appointee of former President Clinton, sided with government employee unions that asked her to bar the administration from carrying out the reductions in force (RIFs) as the lawsuit moves …
We’re about to enter the retail holiday season. Give it a few more weeks to see the real horror. Trucking freight volumes, a signal for the goods economy are a dumpster fire right now (-17% YoY) pic.twitter.com/4YPkLJtHdu — Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️ (@FreightAlley) October 27, 2025 Hiring is at its lowest since 2009. But we’re still …
00:00 Corporate Bankruptcies Surge 44% Higher Than Long Term Average 09:47 National Debt Just Surpassed 38 Trillion 15:39 Target Announces Largest Layoff in Over a Decade 18:23 Costco Groupon Pays You To Shop There Corporate bankruptcies have been skyrocketing to the highest levels that we have seen since 2005 and I’ve been running over 40% …
This week could become a storm of unprecedented volatility, with over 30% of $QQQ components reporting earnings while investors wrestle with record-high margin leverage and frenzied options activity. AI-driven layoffs threaten to ripple across industries in ways rarely seen before, potentially crippling discretionary demand in tech-adjacent sectors like cloud infrastructure, software subscriptions, and digital media. …
In Roman times, if soldiers weren’t paid, emperors died.
NEW from me: California keeps losing tech jobs Amidst the AI boom, the US is in the largest sustained drawdown in tech employment since the dot-com bust And what tech jobs remain continue to leave California for the rest of the US The US continues bleeding tech jobs—tech employment is down 90k from its 2023 …
Q: How many layoffs have you authorized? Trump: It'll be a lot. And it'll be Democrat-oriented. How's this legal? pic.twitter.com/dcxmvSIayv — Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) October 10, 2025 WASHINGTON — The Trump administration on Friday began laying off more than 4,000 federal workers, according to a court filing, as the government remains shut down due to the inability of …
Federal layoffs have begun and are substantial. Layoffs won't hit every agency. Director Vought – Punchbowl#MacroEdge — MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) October 10, 2025 The White House says it is making good on threats to fire thousands of federal workers amid a government shutdown now in its 10th day. “The RIFs have begun,” White House Budget Director …
🚨US layoffs are running at RECESSION levels: US-based employers have announced 946,426 job cuts year-to-date, the most since the 2020 CRISIS. This is the second-largest total since the Great Financial Crisis. Over the last 36 years, only 4 years have seen higher layoffs. US… pic.twitter.com/SRbFzvWzjP — Global Markets Investor (@GlobalMktObserv) October 5, 2025 Employers across …
Corporate America has turned into a machine that exists only to feed itself. It is built on greed, layoffs, and fake values, and it is starting to eat itself alive. The serious question is how did it get this bad. How did corporate America become so openly repulsive. The formula is simple. Fire as many …
President Donald Trump has seized on the government shutdown as an opportunity to reshape the federal workforce and punish detractors, by threatening mass firings of workers and suggesting “irreversible” cuts to programs important to Democrats. Rather than simply furlough employees, as is usually done during any lapse of funds, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt …
The government is not drifting toward shutdown. It is being driven into one. The White House has already moved from vague warnings to direct execution orders, and that single pivot changes everything. When top officials start saying “Two days. Imminent. Very soon,” they are no longer bargaining or posturing, they are laying out a timetable …
Authored by Mike Shedlock via mishtalk, Prospects dwindle for tech jobs. The Tech Layoff Tracker has a nice set of tools and charts that track layoffs. The latest layoffs across all tech companies. So far in 2025, there have been 533 layoffs at tech companies with 144,926 people impacted (549 people per day). In 2024, there were 1,115 layoffs at tech companies w/ 238,461 people impacted (653 people per …
